What 2024 would look like if Trump got convicted

 So, according to a new poll, Kyle Kulinski covered, Trump getting convicted of a felony would shift the race seven points in Biden's direction. And I just want to revisit my last electoral prediction and look at how this would look in practice. I won't be changing anything, and the data is a little dated, but it should give you an idea.

State	Margin	Z Score	% D Win	% R Win	EV if D Wins	EV if R wins
Maine	Biden +18.0%	-4.50	100.0%	0.0%	143	398
Washington	Biden +17.0%	-4.25	100.0%	0.0%	155	395
New York	Biden +16.0%	-4.00	100.0%	0.0%	183	383
New Hampshire	Biden +15.0%	-3.75	100.0%	0.0%	187	355
New Mexico	Biden +15.0%	-3.75	100.0%	0.0%	192	351
Virginia	Biden +11.4%	-2.85	99.8%	0.2%	205	346
Colorado	Biden +11.0%	-2.75	99.7%	0.3%	215	333
Minnesota	Biden +9.5%	-2.38	99.1%	0.9%	225	323
NE2 (estimated)	Biden +7.9%	-1.98	97.6%	2.4%	226	313
Pennsylvania	Biden +7.6%	-1.90	97.1%	2.9%	245	312
Wisconsin	Biden +7.0%	-1.75	96.0%	4.0%	255	293
Arizona	Biden +2.2%	-0.55	70.9%	29.1%	266	283
Michigan	Biden +1.7%	-0.43	66.6%	33.4%	281	272
Nevada	Biden +1.6%	-0.40	65.5%	34.5%	287	257
Georgia	Biden +0.4%	-0.10	54.0%	46.0%	303	251
Texas	Trump +1.0%	+0.25	40.1%	59.9%	343	235
Iowa	Trump +1.0%	+0.25	40.1%	59.9%	349	195
North Carolina	Trump +2.0%	+0.50	30.8%	69.2%	365	189
Florida	Trump +3.0%	+0.75	22.6%	77.4%	395	173
Ohio	Trump +3.0%	+0.75	22.6%	77.4%	412	143
ME2	Trump +7.0%	+1.75	4.0%	96.0%	413	126

Now, this is two week old data from my last prediction. Some new polls have come in, and some states have shifted, most notably colorado. However, I really didn't want to redo my entire election prediction until the end of the month, so we're going by late January data here. 

Still, we get an idea of how the race would shift. And it's MORE favorable to Biden. We get a result more akin to what happened in 2020, with the final result being 303-235, basically what it was in 2020. 

However, there are some caveats I want to point out. First of all, we only have a 67% of Biden winning. This is far from certain. Biden COULD still lose depending on the actual shifts. If its less than expected, he could still lose. If it's larger than expected, I would expect a win, but who knows. Because there's another thing that NEEDS to be addressed here.

And that is the nature of the rust belt. In 2016, Hillary was supposed to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But Trump flipped them as he did several points better than expected. In 2020, they flipped back to Biden, but they still underperformed by a rather large margin, only BARELY going for Biden. We literally came about 1.2 points from a second Trump term in 2020. So let's not act like these states are safe. Wisconsin was up 6.5% in 2016 and over 8 in 2020, but had wild shifts there. Pennsylvania was a bit less extreme, with the results only off more by like 3 points, but still. Michigan also tends to fluctuate wildly, and only being up 1.7 in the polls DESPITE a conviction is not really a play that exudes confidence. Especially when that is the state that makes or breaks the election. Then Georgia is only up 0.4%. Nevada and Arizona are also kinda narrow. Yeah, this is far from certain. 

Biden does have the EDGE if this happens, but it really goes to show just how screwed Biden is right now where an entire 7 point shift only puts him back in the same uncertain ground he had in 2020. He can WIN mind you, if this eventuality happens. But again, it's not certain. it's far from certain. Trump basically has this wrapped up now. Barring a major criminal conviction, he is on course of winning reelection, not Biden. We literally need a criminal conviction just to even the odds a bit. That's how bad off Biden is right now.