Monday, February 5, 2024

Thoughts on the democratic primary and why progressives have such a tough time

 So, more discussion has come out about the democratic primary and the failures of Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson breaking through. And as it turns out, only 4% of voters turned out for the democratic primary in south carolina, and of that 4%, only another 4% of that went for a candidate who was not Joe Biden. 

This is a disaster for the anti Biden left. Biden's approval ratings aren't great, he's not popular, but at the end of the day, the amount of people who showed up to vote for someone else was so small it basically didn't register. 0.4% of 0.4% is actually 0.016% of all constituents. A statistical irrelevance. 

Really. I'm not going to deny the dems put their finger on the scale. They foist unpopular candidates on us, and closed primaries lead to selection biases where those most satisfied with the democratic party as it is are the ones voting in the primaries. Independents aren't. Young people aren't. Leftists largely aren't. And of those who turn up, most approve of Joe Biden as president, often overwhelmingly. 

And of course, the media tends to doll it up even worse. Like Kyle Kulinski today mentioned how one voter was on the record saying they found it "annoying" someone protested the sitting president and it turned out to be some head of some pro Biden superpac. So they tend to manufacture consent to spin things in ways that make the opposition to Biden even smaller than it is, and make it look like everyone wants Biden in president.

I think we can admit two facts. First of all, most PEOPLE don't want Biden to run again. But at the same time, most VOTERS, ie, the ones who show up, do. And as a result, we end up with a result that is pro Biden.

I know many young people who are under 40 and many of them don't vote, much less vote in a democratic primary. And idk what to tell you, if you don't vote, if you don't show up, I don't know how the results are ever going to be different than what they already are. If those who are passionate for Biden, that tiny sliver of the country, are the only ones who show up, then what do you think is gonna happen?

In 2016 and 2020, we had real energy going. In 2016, Bernie took it all the way to the convention and had around 40-45% of the vote. In 2020, he dropped out because of COVID but had a good 35% of the vote or so. He didn't win, but there was energy there, and in those election cycles, I do think if the DNC didn't do their typical manufacturing consent crap and we actually had a fair primary where all candidates were treated fairly by the media without the establishment clearly nudging voters one way or another, maybe Bernie could've won.

In 2024, I can't even make this argument. Because the amount of people showing up to protest Biden as our nominee is so fricking small it's a nonfactor. leftists like to act like by not turning up they're teaching the democratic party a lesson. No, if you dont show up AT ALL, they're not even hearing you, and you might as well don't exist. If you wanna send a message, you have to show up. You have to register as a democrat to vote in primaries and support progressive candidates like Marianne Williamson. If you don't want to vote for the dem nominee in the general, fine, but at least show up and vote for someone like Jill Stein or Cornel West or something. At least then you're on the board. You're sending the message, hey, im showing up, but im not happy with the direction of the party, and maybe you should appeal to me more.

And THEN when the democrats pull their "you better vote for me or else" crap, or blame you for their defeat for refusing to vote for them, you can say "well if you did X Y Z I would have". And then the ball is in their court. You are a voter. You vote. You make your voice heard, you defend your choice.

But if you don't vote at all, that's a serious freaking problem. Because they're not hearing you, you might as well not exist. You are not participating, AT ALL. 

Really. After observing the left over the past decade, and really, historically, over the past 60 years or so, I think there's a lot of reasons why the left sucks so hard at politics and enacting political change. First of all, it's not organized. Yall are like herding cats. To some extent, that's fine, I support individuality and understand we're not all gonna agree and be on the same page. My idea of coalitions is sound. Parties need to appeal to different blocs of voters with different interests and priorities, and make a win work. And to some extent, the left isn't really a bloc. Its a ruly and disorganized mob that make a big stink on the internet and screams their head off over stuff but when the time comes to vote, YALL DON'T SHOW UP! Again, wtf do you expect to happen, if yall aren't showing up? Normally, I'd say, okay, 20-30% of the country likes the dems, and they voted in the primaries. We're just outnumbered and outgunnned. But seriously. 4% turnout? And we couldn't even manage a solid 4% of the vote? Come on, this is getting sad. You wanna know how groups get a say in this country? They organize. They lobby congress. I know lobbying and money in politics is a dirty word for the left, but you need at least some organization. This is why, while I kinda rip his run for president, I respect Cenk Uygur for at least trying to get some people elected with Justice Democrats. I admit we don't have the resources, or ranks, of the democratic party machine, which is why they haven't been successful themselves, to some extent their lobbying and organization and resources is gonna outdo ours, but if you don't try, you're not even gonna get on the map. 

And another thing the left NEEDS to stop doing are being such obnoxious self righteous jerks. It's one thing to have convictions. It's another thing to moralize about them insufferably and to think the right way to do things is to scream chants about "genocide Joe" at rallies, or to hold up traffic because you have a point you wanna make. When you act like mental children, you're going to at best be treated like one, and at worst, your message is counter productive. Because keep trevor's axiom in mind. What generates motivation in the political space sometimes is the self righteous overreaction by well meaning leftists where people can't help but to be turned off and rip on you. Seriously, do you think, when you hold up traffic to make a point about palestine, that anyone hears you? NO. If anything, what we want more than anything is for you to SHUT THE F UP AND GET OUT OF THE WAY! Seriously. people have places they need to be. You're making them late for work. You're making them late to getting home from work after spending 8+ hours wage slaving away all day for money. These people are tired, and they have NO TIME for your BS. If anything, they celebrate when you get hauled away from the cops. Seriously, it's like the left doesn't understand how politics works and why the right is so much more successful than them.

Seriously. This is why we don't win. And this is why we don't get anywhere. Most people are tired. They dont want to hear self righteous spiels. Unless you show you care about them, and your policies help them, and make their lives better, then you're not gonna win those people over.

I don't believe we can ever win everyone over. But look at what it takes to win sometimes. We got a 4% sliver of the country motivated enough to turn out for Joe Biden. We should be able to get 5%, or 6%, or 10% out in favor of someone else. We do that, we win. Of course, if we had that much support the race would have more visibility, like 2016 and 2020, and that would drive even more Biden supporters to support Biden, but the point is, we're not gonna get anywhere if we don't try. 

The left needs to overhaul itself. It needs to work on its messaging. it needs to work on its organizational skills. it needs to work on actually motivate people to vote. There's plenty of discontentment out there. Only 30% pluralities want Trump or Biden to be president, each. 70% don't want at least one of these guys and 40% don't want either. We need to organize so we can actually get fricking results here. 

Seriously. This is embarrassing. We need to do better. We only got 0.016% of the population out there voting. That's all. That's ALL the people who came out for phillips and williamson. I'm not saying everyone needs to be a community organizer. I myself am a bit too much of a philosopher king type to wanna....work with others. But at least I show up.

Btw. I got my form for mail in voting today here in PA. I'm filling it out and sending it back so I can vote by mail this year. Everyone can do this now here in PA. There's no excuses for not voting. See you in April when we got our democratic primary. See you in november when we got the general election. I will be there. And I won't even have to leave the comfort of my own home. But I AM participating, I AM showing up, and I AM asking everyone in the remaining 48 states to do the same. if you dont want Joe Biden on the ballot, we need people to TURN OUT. At least fricking check a box. That's the bare fricking minimum, guys. If you don't do that, don't whine about how nothing is ever gonna change when time comes in november and we're faced with the bitter pill of a trump biden rematch. Because you helped make it happen through your inaction. Im not saying you owe a vote to any specific candidate, by the way. But you have to show up and check a fricking box for someone. Write in Mickey Mouse or yourself if you really hate all the candidates that much. Idk what to say. Just vote. It doesn't matter for who. Just fricking get out there and vote for who your conscience dictates.

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