Now, onto another discussion, let's go into a form of protest that I tend to value as more effective, and that I tend to respect a lot more, and that being VOTING. If you really wanna change things, you have to VOTE, not do stupid crap like set yourself on fire, but VOTE! And we discussed Michigan last night, and how people there voted, and the message they sent was loud and clear.
Before I get into this, I want to reiterate my perspective on Israel-Gaza. I'm inherently pro Israel, but given the extreme actions of the Netanyahu administration, I have to distance my support from him at this time. The war in Gaza is basically a crazed vengeful bloodlust by the state of Israel, and Israel is not holding themselves to a standard normally accepted by western nations at this time. THeir behavior is, at the very minimum, complete overkill, and at most, a genocide. I would argue the situation is in the grey area in that sense, but the fact that there is an argument to call it a genocide says something about the brutality of Israel's behavior here.
At the same time, geopolitics is complicated, Biden doesnt have a magic wand, and I'm not sure a cease fire is practical or desirable. The fact is, Hamas started this current iteration of this war, and I don't think they'll just stop. Moreover, I am not convinced we could leverage a cease fire with Israel without publicly breaking from our support of Israel, which is not a road I'd prefer to go down. Sure we COULD support a ceasefire, but in the long term it would solve nothing, and just damage our relationship with Israel. A distancing of the US from israel could even escalate the conflict as other Arab nations decide to jump in against it, leading to the conflict getting more extreme and bloody. So let's not act like this is a simple conflict with a simple solution, it is not. And as much as I dislike Netanyahu's behavior, I'm not sure forcing a cease fire is a good idea.
Nor do I think this is the issue the left should die on the hill of. Honestly, I am staying focused on the same issues I always focus on. UBI, M4A, free college, student debt forgiveness, climate change, housing, etc. I don't really care a ton about this stuff. I find it cringey the left wont stand up for the priorities I emphasize but they go so bugnuts over this issue. And for a while I've been taking potshots at these guys online bashing them and making fun of them for it. Not only do I think this isn't a good issue to make a stink over, it's also not a good time, given we're facing a very precarious domestic situation with Trump being a literal dictator wanting to come back into power, and overthrow democracy itself. He is DANGEROUS, and this is the WORST TIME for the left to grow a spine (and I say this after going green in 2016 and 2020).
Still, as we have seen in Michigan, the voters have spoken. 100k have voted for "uncommitted" with large concentrations of them probably doing so over Gaza. There was an organized campaign pushing for a cease fire now, and this was the left's way to apply political pressure on Biden saying "here's our votes, these are our demands, come and get them". And you know what, as a 2016 and 2020 third party voter, I kind of have to respect the hustle here. They used the same playbook I've been saying the left HAS to use to get concessions from dems, basically hit them where it hurts: electorally, at the ballot box. And they did so in...perhaps not large enough numbers to flip the state given the current margins, but large enough that based on the historical performance of this state in recent elections, is enough to be relevant and shift the outcome if the election gets closer. Keep in mind, in 2016, Hillary only lost Michigan by 10000 votes. in 2020, Biden won it by 150k. Im not convinced every vote for uncommitted is for a cease fire, heck, 20k seems to be a normal amount in a primary, but that's still 80k worth of votes that are potentially up for grabs here. And let's face it, we NEED Michigan.
Here's the electoral map from my last election prediction. Take a good look. Let it sink in. Look at the 2 closest states, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Right now WI is slightly red, and PA slightly blue. Without PA, Biden has 226 electoral votes, assuming NE2 goes Biden (225 without it). PA brings it up to 245, and WI to 255. We need 15 more.
Where can we get 15 more? Well, the five other states worth discussing up for grabs here are North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan. Iowa is also at 8 exactly, so im not sure I'd consider it in the same class as the others, but you get the idea. Of those five states, which are the most likely to go blue? Eh, all of them are tough sells. Arizona is up 4.5% for Trump, Michigan 4.8, and beyond that we very quickly go into 7 point territory, which is a lot harder to flip. We're 2-4x more likely to flip a state that's up 4-5 for Trump than one that's 6-8. Michigan could get us to 270, and if we get that, we win. It doesnt matter what else happens. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, best, most reliable strategy for democrats. Neglecting the rust belt to pursue the south is what cost Hillary in 2016. In 2020, Biden managed to win back the rust belt, and also win some southern states. But in this tough 2024 environment, we're down 5-7 points compared to where Biden was in 2020. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are both virtual coin flips right now. if we assume Biden gets them, it's a start, but he really needs Michigan to seal the deal. If he gets it, again, doesnt matter what else happens, 270-268, gg no re. But....100k voters, enough to potentially swing the election, just basically said "hey, we want a ceasefire now, and we might not support you in the general if you don't give us one". So....these guys got Biden by the balls. They just issued an ultimatum, and I'm going to be honest, I myself aint particularly happy about this either, but Biden HAS to rise to the challenge here, if he wants to win. he could be throwing away the election otherwise. Sometimes in a nation of 340 million people, all you need are a few thousand in the right states to cause electoral chaos, and these guys just basically told Biden "hey we want this, either give it to us or no vote."
Biden HAS to do it. It doesnt matter if it's good policy, or the sane practical thing to do. We got bigger issues on hand than israel/palestine. And I highly encourage Biden to actually break out his executive order pen, or pick up that big red phone connected to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, and to lay down the law on Netanyahu here.
If he doesn't, he's gonna need another path. And honestly, what other path does he have? NC, GA, and AZ are all electorally volatile. Even if Biden ran a perfect campaign and does everything right, these are southern states that dont typically vote for democrats. They might in a very blue year, but they normally don't. And I feel like the dems try too hard to appeal to these states, and often have nothing to show for it. Trying so hard in these state's was Clinton's folly in 2016. She ignored the rust belt and tried to win the south, she said "I dont need you" to pissed off rust belt voters and look at how that turned out for her. Biden ignoring arab voters in Michigan reeks of the same hubris and will have the same result, he is basically gonna hand the election over to Trump on a silver platter here.
So yeah. The people have spoken, and Biden has to listen and act. If he doesn't, he might lose the election over this Palestine bullcrap. For real. And you know what? If fricking Aaron Bushnell didn't set himself on fire, maybe he too could've voted in a way that would impact Biden here. Again, this is protesting that WORKS, this is political hardball, it's civil, it's clean, its effective, and it sends a message. Far more than gluing yourself to a road or screaming like a toddler at a political rally or setting yourself on fire does.
That said, Joe, what's it gonna be? You gonna show the political courage to do the right thing here or are you gonna throw away the election over this crap? Because democracy belongs to the voters, they are YOUR BOSS, it is YOUR JOB to listen, and they gave you an order. Ignore it at your peril. For the love of god, don't get fired by the american people and replaced with the psychotic apprentice-man. There's too much at stake this election.
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