Saturday, February 17, 2024

The banality of mainstream American politics

 So, I donned my protective gear and decided to jump into some more mainstream subs like r/politics, just to get an idea of what the "normies" of reddit were saying. I stopped posting mostly in those places since I was chased out in 2016 as the sub was astroturfed to crap, and that place is STILL just as radioactive as it was in 2016 for me. Dear god, zhe goggles, zhey do nothzing! 

Your typical normie american is in a hyperpartisan trap. They see America as two great parties, and if you arent in one, youre in the other. If youre a more nuanced partisan like me, you get accused of helping the other side fairly regularly.

These guys are STILL relitigating 2016, going on about how much better life would be if Hillary were elected. They did this with Bush after 9/11 too. And again my argument is that long periods of time of one party control of the white house are rare, and typically involves a realignment in which that party is hyper popular enough to reset the entire political narrative for the next 40 years. This is because for all of the party faithful, there are also independents and less faithful party members (like me) who will defect or stay home or vote third party if they're unhappy with their options. The point is, parties are coalitions, and as the fringes of those coalitions peel away from the parties due to the unpopularity of its governance over time, they lose elections. When a big shift happens, that's typically a realignment.

Im not sure if we've actually fully realigned yet. 2016 was either THE realignment, or the start of one. Given how RFK, Jill Stein, and Cornel West are all third party candidates who when polled do super well, driving Biden's polling down into the 30s, this could be the precursor to a more firm realigning year in 2028. But, despite this, a lot of Americans in "normie"land are in a hyperpartisan struggle to the death with each other.

Democratic partisans literally live under a rock. Over the past 8 years, the party faithful has been conditioned to just praise dear leader and anyone who doesnt is an idiot, wrong, or intentionally helping the other side. Which is why they can't take a joke when Jon Stewart takes care of business. They just want undying praise for how AMAZING Joe Biden has been, and no hes totally not too old, and trump is evil, and blah blah blah. And let's face it, we all know that the trumpers arent much better. Heck, the term for those blue guys is often "bluemaga" and "blueanon", making fun of the creepy cultish support for Trump on the right. I would argue that the trumpers are even MORE delusional. They live in a world in which everything is amazing with orange man in charge, but the same conditions are intolerable with a democrat in charge. While they are right on inflation, they are also wrong on the causes of it, overestimate Biden's role in causing it, blame biden unfairly for everthing, and live in a world in which they seem to think everything is going to crap all at once, as if 2017-2021 was some golden era (it wasn't, even taking away COVID). 

It's wild. We are literally living John Adam's worst nightmare of two great parties acting out of fear of the other but only like 1/3 of the country even notices, and even less are willing to do anything about it. 2/3 of active voters are active participants, and even many of the last 1/3 are "ugh fine, lesser evil it is i guess". Normally I would be pushing for change, but even I have to admit that after January 6th, Trump is too dangerous to turn a blind eye to. I also think Biden did enough to legitimately earn a vote, even if i aint the world's biggest fan of him, and let's face it, the left has nothing else going on i find interesting enough to participate in. They're too busy screaming into the the void over the gaza situation, and that doesnt motivate me. Nor does the prospect of literal communism. Or even a massive jobs program (*retches*). Sadly, among ALL of the lesser evils, including third party ones, I STILL find Biden the least offensive. And that's actually really sad.

But let's face it, I'm keeping it real about the guy. The dude's ancient. He didnt accomplish a lot. He mightve been arguably the best president since at least carter and possibly since LBJ, but that's...not saying much given those were two previous alignment guys from 40+ years ago. He has flaws, we could do a whole lot better. And bluemaga is just not doing the left any favors by dying in their sword for the guy.

I mean, you realize that we're down by like 7 points compared to where we NEED to be, right? And if you go by the third party polling I mentioned above, it might be even worse as lefties are defecting from the dem coalition in ALL directions. Btw, the reason i dont do third party polling with my election predictions is because there isnt as much data, but on a state level, things are generally at least as grim as the 2 party  matchup, if not worse. While 4 points down the national poll with third party candidates, this doesnt manifest in the swing states as extremely, but it's still not doing Biden any favors. Yikes. 

Point is, the rats are fleeing the sinking ship and heres these guys just rearranging the chairs on the deck of the titanic acting like theres no problem and we're not heading toward disaster, it's wild to see. The normie dems truly have learned nothing since 2016, and are still screaming at voters to support them just as they did in 2016, even though that doesn't work. Btw, if i DO vote Biden this time, Yall cant even blame me like you did in 2016. But I will still be here saying I told you so. Because let's face it, I see the writing on the wall. Joe is cooked, most people dont like him, and these guys are just too partisan to admit it. 

We need to somehow get past this hyperpartisanism. It's doing no favors. And quite frankly, these candidates arent worth BEING hyperpartisan for. What do Biden or Trump offer the American people? Not much. Biden offers milquetoast fixes that he struggles to pass due to lack of cooperation from congress, and Trump offers less than nothing. He would make the nation WORSE. Even if fear of trump is the big motivator for backing Biden, we can still be real about Biden. We dont need to be in weird "how dare you good suh, biden is the best president ever and if we elected hillary we would all be 100 years more advanced muhahahaha!" No, we wouldnt. Heck if Trump DID lose in 2016 we mightve seen january 6th happen in 2017, and the guy (or one of his sycophants, looking at you, vivek) almost certainly would've won in 2020. 

Republicans exist. We didnt break their backs yet, and neither clinton nor biden had the ability to break their party's coalition. If anything either of those guys just end up preserving it by how weak and polarizing THEY are. You cant fight against these greater arcs of history unless you bring a candidate who offers serious change. Right now the only such candidate ive seen is...trump. And he's taking american down a dark path, both for republicans and democrats.

I swear, trumpism vs bluemagaism is the entire problem. I keep saying it, 2016 unlocked some serious negative hyperpartisanism, and most people are in the cave praising their side and demonizing the other with little to no nuance at all. I might be partisan but at least I have nuance. And unless we can get out of this cycle, we're screwed for the rest of my life politically. I dont even have solutions any more. Like I do, to the country at large, but not this hyperpartisan cycle. I cant convince the closed minded and those stuck in the cave. They're too stubborn, and I've been trying for 8 fricking years now. Heck, they fight the truth when they hear it. Just like they're shooting the messenger when jon stewart outlines the problem. Ugh.

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