Election update 5/3/24

 So, FINALLY time for another election update. I want to do at least one of these a month and it's been about a month since my last one. I didn't do one sooner since as I said there wasn't much of a point. At the two week mark my previous prediction still held. We didn't really see significant changes with noting until this week, so let's get into it.

2 way race: Trump 1.5%

5 way race: Trump +3.2%

The two way didn't change a ton but the five way got about a point redder. Let's see how this plays out in the electoral college.

State	Margin	Z score	% D win	% R win	EV if D wins	EV if R wins
New York	Biden +10.0%	-2.50	99.4%	0.6%	150	416
Washington	Biden +10.0%	-2.50	99.4%	0.6%	162	388
Illinois	Biden +9.0%	-2.25	98.8%	1.2%	181	376
New Hampshire	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	185	357
New Mexico	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	190	353
Colorado	Biden +6.5%	-1.63	94.8%	5.2%	200	348
Virginia	Biden +4.3%	-1.08	86.0%	14.0%	213	338
Minnesota	Biden +2.3%	-0.58	71.9%	28.1%	223	325
Maine	Biden +2.0%	-0.50	69.9%	30.1%	225	315
NE2 (estimated)	Biden +0.5%	-0.13	55.2%	44.8%	226	313
Pennsylvania	Trump +1.0%	+0.25	40.1%	59.9%	245	312
Michigan	Trump +1.2%	+0.30	38.2%	61.8%	260	293
Wisconsin	Trump +1.8%	+0.45	32.6%	67.4%	270	278
Georgia	Trump +3.8%	+0.95	17.1%	82.9%	286	268
Nevada	Trump +4.5%	+1.13	12.9%	87.1%	292	252
Arizona	Trump +5.0%	+1.25	10.6%	89.4%	303	246
North Carolina	Trump +5.4%	+1.35	8.9%	91.1%	319	235
Florida	Trump +9.0%	+2.25	1.2%	98.8%	349	219
Texas	Trump +9.3%	+2.33	1.0%	99.0%	389	189
Ohio	Trump +10.0%	+2.50	0.6%	99.4%	406	149
Iowa	Trump +11.5%	+2.88	0.2%	99.8%	412	132
Alaska	Trump +12.0%	+3.00	0.1%	99.9%	415	126

So we got good news and bad news. The bad news is that most of the 7 swing states have gotten about 1 point more red since my last update. The good news, is that Michigan, the state that was deciding my whole election predictions, got about 1.5-2 points LESS red. And because my election prediction's overall probabilities are decided by that one state (and if anything that state is no longer the decider, Wisconsin now is), we're now looking at a situation where Biden's odds have gone UP. 

Biden is now looking at a 32.6% chance of winning, while Trump is looking at a 67.4% chance of winning. Yes, it's actually looking better for Biden now.

At the same time, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are a bit harder for Biden to take, and he needs all 3. And this makes the map look worse (226-312 Trump). Still, given he literally needs all three of those rust belt states, and given how even one loss is a loss for him electorally unless he picks up a much harder to win state that he has even less probability to win, I would actually prefer this map. Remember, what really matters is where the center of gravity is. Where is that all important 270 tipping point. It doesnt matter if you get 255 or 260 more easily, if getting over the finish line for 270 is harder. What matters is the probability for hitting 270, and while literally everything else seems to have gone wrong for Biden over the past month, that one thing going better shifts my entire prediction to the most favorable Biden forecast this election season. 

We'll see how things shift from here. In 2022, things looked dire until around June-July. if things don't shape up by the convention in late July, we can start really sounding the alarm bells.

Still, we shouldn't discount Biden. I remember in 2016 I looked at electoral maps that were even harder for Trump to win and he won. So if Biden overperforms polling, he can win. 

Still, if anything, democrats have UNDERperformed since 2016. ESPECIALLY in the rust belt. So for all we know this point the results could be 2-4 points redder, rather than 2-4 points bluer (which is the hope). Nothing is safe, nothing should be taken for granted, and at odds like this, it's very much competitive. Seriously, we're at about a 2/3 odds for Trump and 1/3 for Biden.That's actually a huge improvement from being 4/5 or 5/6 for Trump and 1/5 or 1/6 for Biden, which has been commonplace for months now. So even if it doesn't look it, this is a slightly more favorable map. 

As for the hypothetical third party map, it's about identical. Some states are 1-2 points more red, but the tipping point is literally still at 1.8% Wisconsin. Third parties are actually making relatively little net impact either way, although if I had to say it's working for or against a certain candidate in net, I'd say it slightly favors Trump and slightly inhibits Biden. Still, the impact is small enough where given my methodology it's not even statistically significant and well within the margin of error.