So, I'm already seeing a narrative form, that this conviction is gonna help Trump, and not hurt him, because it's going to galvanize his base. Explain exactly why this is a wrong way to look at this.
Here's the thing about Trump's coalition. It's pretty large, not amazingly large, but it's PASSIONATE. Theres like 40% of the country that is ride or die on this guy. They're very passionate about him, it doesnt matter what he does or what happens to him, they're with him through thick and thin, they drank the kool aid. BUT....there's also about 60% of people who ARENT ride or die on him. Many of them are democrats, who have their 40% who will stick with Biden through thick or thin, theyll prop up his dementia riddled body weekend at bernie's style, and they will crawl over broken glass to avoid a second trump term. Most elections are decided by the other 20%. And in this other 20%, you got, I'd say, broadly speaking, 3 different groups of voters. You have your less loyal republican voters, your less loyal democratic voters, and then you have your general swing voters. And by the way it might not be exactly 40%, its anywhere from 35-45% per side generally, and this is how it's always been. Roughly 1/3 of people supported remaining British in the 1770s, roughly 1/3 of people (or maybe a lot more given the civil war) were probably pro confederacy in the 1860s, like 1/3 of people were probably conservatives during FDR's new deal stuff, and like 1/3 of people were liberals when Reagan was going on. You always have that passionate 1/3 or so of people, maybe a little more, like 2/5, who are just so ride or die on their side that they will come out for them no matter what. Elections are won by the margins.
You got some less loyal republicans who might have not drank the trump kool aid, who may come out for the republicans but dont actually like them. Think the nikki haley crowd, or libertarians. Some might be relatively apolitical and not ideological but some also might be SUPER ideologically rigid and think trump isn't conservative ENOUGH. Or isnt libertarian enough.
Same with the dems. You got people who might be democratic leaners but might not come out every election like college kids. You got people who might be super ideological like me, or the free palestine people, who are intermittent democratic voters. And then you got "the normies". Ya know, your typical middle of the road centrist, who mightve gone obama in 2008 and 2012, then trump in 2016, then biden in 2020, and now they're leaning Trump in 2024. Or the opposite pattern. Maybe they voted for McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012, and then Clinton in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Trump in 2024 or something. Im kind of assuming most of these guys were leaning to trump based on polls. And this is the group to watch out for.
Okay, so a conviction galvanizes the base. Cool. They were gonna vote for Trump regardless. They cant vote twice, although a handful of them might try to commit voter fraud thinking the libs do it and that's how they win. So....what is this gonna do to his margins? NOTHING. It also won't rile up the Biden people to vote harder for Biden if they're gonna vote anyway. What this impacts is that 20-30% of swing voters. The less loyal members of the parties' coalitions who don't show up every election cycle, and the genuine swing voters.
Trump has always had a problem with swing voters. His base loves him, but the reason he had some weaknesses in 2016 and 2020 was, to some extent, because he turns off normies. He's too extreme. He's too ideological. He's a loose cannon. He's uncouth. And now, he's a literal felon. Among his base, sure, he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any voters. But he CAN lose normies, and drive them into the arms of the democrats.
In 2016, his victory was unexpected, it's like people decided to come out for him last minute. The democratic base we demotivated due to voters like me being pissed off at hillary, and the swing vote swung hard for trump.
But in 2018, 2020, and 2022, things went the other way. In 2018 it was a normal blue wave mid term election year. 2020, COVID and Trump's extremism turned off normies to a point where Biden could win again. Still it was a narrow win, because Trump's base was still formidable,and more formidable than I expected.
In 2022, it was looking like it was gonna be a blowout for team red as dems were demotivated, republicans were fired up, and the swing vote was expected to lean red. But then overturning Roe v Wade happened and things swung blue REALLY hard as people got pissed off over losing abortion rights.
That has died down a bit, and now we're back to apocalpptic numbers for Biden. Inflation is #1 in everyone's minds. Immigration is too and even some dems are unhappy about it given the GOP had the politically brilliant strategy of dropping off tons of illegals by the busload in deep blue cities, creating a crisis of taking care of these people, which is causing the dems to sour on the liberal immigration narrative. And third, let's face it, no one likes Biden. He's old. There's been questions about whether he has dementia (I dont think so but i get the optics here). He hasnt been able to do much. Is he a good leader? I think he is, but honestly, there are questions and he doesnt LOOK good. So, a lot of dem voters have been demotivated (and yes gaza is an issue too but lets face it, leftists arent gonna vote democrats anyway). And normie swing voters, well they're swinging to Trump. They're unhappy over inflation. They're unhappy over immigration, and it seems like whoever is in office, just loses support, and the other side gains support. And given how dems are in office, and prices were cheaper under last guy who is running again, they're thinking of voting against current guy to bring back last guy.
And that's what the polls are reflecting. That's the environment we've been in for much of this election cycle. The GOP is fired up, although there is some question as to whether the haley voters will fall in line. The dems are demoralized. Swing voters are leaning republican.
So what does this conviction change? Well, first of all. Trump being a convicted felon might demotivate some of the less loyal Trump guys who havent drank the kool aid, they dont like trump, but they tolerate trump, but they really wanted Nikki haley this time or something like that. Those guys might distance themselves from the party. There are questions within the right about whether trump is the guy who should lead the GOP and while the majority of voters, that 60-70% that's ride or die on him, that other 30-40% might start to defect. Not all of them will. Some will support the republican nominee for ideological reasons no matter who it is, but even if Trump loses 5-10% of his voters, that's gonna translate to a 2.5-5% shift in the polls roughly assuming his voters are half the country. And then you got independents. A lot of them might start thinking "yeah inflation sucks, biden sucks, but now trump is a convicted felon, do we really want this guy again?" Again, previous polling seemed to indicate a conviction could shift the polls by 7 points. Not saying it definitely will happen. People are fickle. Now that we're at this bridge to cross, some might have second thoughts, but even 5% would reverse the entire election here. Trump is up by about 2.3% in the electoral college as of last week. A 5 point shift would shift it to 2.7% in Biden's favor. And then we're winning again. Heck, all that really has separated 2024 from 2020 is about 4-6% of the electorate. It was closer to 6, now it's like 4-5. And yeah. That's all that we need. We're not gonna see that 40% or so of Trump's base that's ride or die defect from him. It's about winning a slice of that 20% wedge that's really the swing vote. Now, youre not gonna see the entire wedge defect from one side unless we're doing a realignment. That normally indicates one side has a winning strategy, the other side is losing badly, and its up to the losing side to adjust its entire politics to meet the other side half way. And while we are undergoing a realignment, things are divided enough in the country where things arent as fluid as they were previously where a 60-40 victory in the popular vote is all but impossible. But if one side can still leverage the electoral college in a way where they win multiple elections in a row, it will eventually force the other side to shift its strategy. It's been speculated that the republican party has been in trouble for a while,but they just keep hanging in there, in part because the dems suck so much. And again, part of my fear of 2024 is things could shift back toward the GOP in such a way it forces the dems to moderate to remain relevant. hence why I feel a need to defend Biden.
But yeah. Anyway, as I see it, this COULD be our 2024 "roe v wade overturned" moment. We could suddenly, in the next couple weeks, see monumental shifts in the polls. And trust me,it's been needed. The polls have been horrible for dems this year. I havent seen polling like this since i largely started following it back in 2008 when i was in college. Normally dems are ahead every election cycle, with the GOP coalition floundering. This time, the GOP coalition looks healthy and the dems have been floundering. But now, we might see things reverse as the GOP starts to flounder as swing voters and less loyal parts of his electorate swing away from him. The trump cultists will always back the guy. he has a solid base that will go ride or die on him. But he cant win with that alone. He needs those less reliable voters and swing voters and that's where he tends to struggle. Because Trump is very polarizing, and a lot of people are massively turned off by the guy. They're just thinking he's a good idea because the democratic nominee is an old guy who acts like he doesnt know what he had for breakfast half the time, he never seems to do anything, and inflation and immigration concerns run rampant. But again if he's a felon, people might give the ancient and ineffective guy another chance. And the GOP will need to get someone else in 2028 to shift things back the other way.
And yeah. Keep in mind, all we need to shift the election as of now, assuming polling is accurate, is about 3-5 points. This conviction could easily deliver that. Sure, most cultists will support him, we're never gonna get a 60-40 landslide like during the reagan era here. BUT, I think that enough normies will be turned off it could shift the election. Keep in mind, elections ultimately come down to relatively small voter margins in relatively small numbers of states. 2000 was decided by 500 votes. 2016 was decided by around 40,000. 2024 could be an election like that. We need every vote we can get. And this might drive our margins up and hand the election to the dems on a silver platter. That's what I'm hoping at least. We'll see in my next election update in mid-late June.
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