Mini Election Update (5/31/24)

 I don't want to do a full election update, as that would take too much time, not a ton has changed, and I just did one a week ago, but there are some things I want to document, given that we are effectively at, possibly, the height of Trump's polling, and that things might go down HARD over the next couple weeks. 

2 Way: Trump +0.9%

5 Way: Trump +2.2%

Tipping point: Pennsylvania (Trump +2.3%) (71.9% Trump wins)

So not a lot changed. This is why i dont bother doing this constantly.But there are a couple changes I do want to discuss.

New York is now officially a "swing state." What the actual fudge? That isn't good AT ALL. In what world is it even remotely close for NY? NY is normally like an easy +20 state for dems or something like that. Why is it technically on the edge of my margin of error? To the point, it is on the edge. An 8.0% means theres roughly a 95% chance the result is somewhere between 0% and 16%, but there is that 2.5% (technically 2.3%) chance it could flip red. It's not a huge possibility, but just having it in play is bizarre.

On the flip side, it could be like South Carolina or Missouri or Alaska predictions in previous cycles where it was on the edge of being "swing state status" only for it to not be anywhere near as close. Maybe the polling being this close indicates a systemic polling error in trump's favor, the way 2016 and 2020 seemed systemically in the democrats' more so than the actual results.

Virginia is down to Biden +3%. That is kind of a warning sign. Virginia, Maine, and Minnesota, which we normally think of as "blue states" these days are roughly as "in play" as Pennsylvania is. It's crazy. This is why this election scares me so much. I've been following polling for four election cycles like this and I've never seen the GOP up so much. I do expect that to change now that Trump is a convicted felon, but the fact that people were leaning this way shows widespread dissatisfaction with the democratic party that could continue to dog them in future election cycles. 

But yeah. It is possible Trump being convicted changes things. I just wanted to outline how things have changed since last week since this will probably be the last week before his polls nosedive. I really do expect Trump to lose numbers here. Conservatives are acting like we just guaranteed victory for them but in reality, as I said last night, the die hard trump base cant vote harder or more than they already are. They only get one vote. It's up to the less loyal republicans who have doubts about Trump, and independents to ultimately get him over the finish line. And I do think this will erode his coalition somewhat.

We'll see. I like to do these predictions on Friday, and expect my next major update to either happen on June 15th or 22nd or so. And then maybe I'll schedule my next one after that for sentencing day around July 11th or so. Just telling you what my game plan is with those. 

EDIT: Forgot the map, but yeah, 222-316 Trump.