An actual 2024 prediction with data (10/20/23)

 So, I know I said I wasn't gonna do serious predictions until around mid-next year, but RCP is starting to put up state level polling now, and I've decided to go for it. What brought this on? Watching Cenk be interviewed by Krystal and Kyle and Friends and claiming that Biden is screwed, there's no way he's going to win. Even with a relatively even popular vote, Biden stands next to no chance, and we shouldnt go into 2024 with our weakest candidate. I'm not convinced Biden is the weakest possible candidate, most data I've seen would suggest the democrats would lose more with someone else, but I tend to agree Biden is not in a good place. Anyway, I figured I wanted to actually do a more detailed election prediction with the data I had available. I ain't gonna go into ME2 and NE2, but I will estimate them based on the trends similar to my last prediction, and yeah, let's get to it.

Popular vote: Trump +0.6%

Just based on that alone, given how the electoral college results trend with the popular vote, yeah, Biden is screwed, by my own model from 2020 (see above). Even popular vote translates to a 0-6% electoral college chance for democrats, and democrats need to hit +3% to break even, and +5-6% to have a strong chance of winning. Which is why my last prediction went so badly for democrats. 

As for the state level, well, let's build a chart: 

State	Margin	Z Score	% Biden Win	% Trump Win	EV if Biden Wins	EV if Trump Wins
Texas	Trump +8.0%	-2.00	2.3%	97.7%	359	219
Georgia	Trump +5.0%	-1.25	10.6%	89.4%	319	235
North Carolina	Trump +4.0%	-1.00	15.9%	84.1%	303	251
Arizona	Trump +3.0%	-0.75	22.6%	77.4%	287	262
Wisconsin	Trump +2.0%	-0.50	30.9%	69.1%	276	272
Pennsylvania	Trump +1.6%	-0.40	34.5%	65.5%	266	291
Michigan	Trump +0.4%	-0.10	46.0%	54.0%	247	306
NE2 (estimated)	Biden +1.4%	+0.35	63.7%	36.3%	232	307
Nevada	Biden +2.0%	+0.50	69.1%	30.9%	231	313
Minnesota	Biden +2.0%	+0.50	69.1%	30.9%	225	323
Colorado	Biden +4.0%	+1.00	84.1%	15.9%	215	333
Virginia	Biden +6.0%	+1.50	93.3%	6.7%	205	346
New Mexico	Biden +8.0%	+2.00	97.7%	2.3%	192	351

You might be wondering where's Florida, Ohio, and Iowa?

Well, Trump's up by 10 in Florida, 12 in Ohio, and 10 in Iowa. And given Maine D2 is up with Iowa and Ohio based on 2020 results, I ain't even counting that.

Same thing with New Hampshire on the democratic side. it's +9.4% Biden. So I'm not counting these and considering them "safe states" for now.

All in all, this election projection has 179 safe voted for Donald Trump and 187 for Joe Biden. And from there....well...you see the results. Trump is projected to win by a margin of 306-232, the same margin he got in 2016 (minus faithless electors). The deciding state is Wisconsin, which going +2 for Trump gives him a 70% chance to win the electoral college, and Biden a 30%. That's...better than I thought. Remember, if we go by the popular vote alone, I'd estimate <6%, and my own projection in which i estimated what the state margins would look like had Biden at 9%. So these margins being more close than projected is...a good thing.

Of course, one must remember polls aren't necessarily reality, and both 2016 and 2020 went red by margins exceeded by the polls. If that happens in rust belt states, we could see those states in the 5% range not unlike my original projection. 

Still, do we really have enough data now to know who's going to win? Are these results inevitable? No. In 2021 I projected 2022 would be a bloodbath for democrats. The red wave turned to a red trickle. In 2016, I kept insisting months out from the election that donald trump was "screwed" and needed like a 6 point shift in the polls to actually win. And the polls did shift that much in many states. 

It's still early. The numbers are concerning, yes, but I look at it like this. Everyone knows who Donald Trump and Joe Biden are. Most Trumpers are passionate for the guy and ride or die on them. Most Biden supporters...aren't. They kinda think "ugh do I really have to vote for this unappealing 80 year old?" and they are kinda just like....well let's see how it goes. I think if we get closer to election time, a lot of undecideds will break for Biden. Whether it's enough is another question. As I like to say, elections are won by enthusiasm, and if the democrats are lagging there that's a bad sign. It's very possible that we won't see a wave of support to come in at the last minute to back Biden up. If so, yes, Trump can win.

Honestly, I think the 70-30 odds are about accurate. Trump is the favorite, but I wouldn't discount Biden based on polls. I do think we could see some shifting to Biden next year and it would only take a couple points to shift the outcome to Biden.

Still, is Cenk right, when he talks about how we shouldn't run the Bears vs the Raiders when we can run the Chiefs? Yes. But who is this "Kansas City Chiefs" of democratic candidates? Is it Marianne Williamson? Kamala Harris? Pete Buttigieg? No, it's none of them. is it Cenk himself? He would LIKE to see himself that way, but I'm going to say no there too. The fact is, there is no better candidate waiting in the wings just begging to be put on the field. This is NOT 2016 any more. Bernie (or someone like him) is NOT on the bench ready to save us if only the dems will give him a chance. Bernie's too old too and last I looked his numbers vs Trump 2024 are weaker than Biden's. 

Maybe if the democrats didn't drive the party into the ditch with their ride or die mindset in which defeating the left was more important than defeating Trump. And yes, they did that. They made sure we couldnt run our star quarterback in 2016 and 2020. But it's too late now, and now we're stuck here. We gotta make the best of the situation and go from here.