So, after reflecting on the situation in Israel/Palestine the last few days, I've come to the conclusion that a two state solution likely won't work. Because that's...kinda what we've been trying to do for a while. Israel has basically given land to the Palestinians to go off into, and yet, there's still violence. And the living conditions in palestine are horrific. Generally speaking, Palestine controls the Gaza strip and the West bank. And yes, the state controls two separate areas that are distinct from each other and not connected. And that's kind of the problem with nation states. You kind of need a contiguous area for a nation state to work. You also need your own supply lines. But largely the Palestinians controlled areas need to rely on Israel to get supplies in. And often times they don't. And Palestinians can't really leave their areas very well, because they're surrounded by Israel. And given Israel often surrounds these areas with check points, walls, and strong military presence, Palestine has been referred to as an "open air prison" in recent days. Basically, it is like a prison. They're trapped, they cant leave, the conditions are horrible, they struggle to get supplies in, they live in filth, and yeah. This. Isn't. Working.
Of course, this is how it has to work if we do it. Because that's where the Palestinians live. All the jews and the palestinians live intermingled with each other geographically. With Palestinian controlled areas carved out from Israel for them to be sovereign over. The problem is, this is like separating democrats and republicans in the US. I know we had those United States of Canada vs Jesusland maps back in the day, but in reality, it's even more complicated than that. Because democrats live in cities, and republicans live in rural areas. Imagine carving out PA into two partitions, one for democrats and one for republicans. You'd give philly and pittsburgh to the democrats but outside of little islands here and there the rest of the state would largely be controlled by republicans. And then imagine getting supplies into these cities with the republicans just don't care, and are on edge because they're concerned that the democrats are gonna come out into their suburbs and gun them down. And then imagine the democrats DO do that, as hamas is doing. That is the closest American analogue to the position israel and palestine is in as I can think of.
And you cant run a country this way. Much less two distinct countries. This isn't going to work. Because of the basic realities of logistics. Countries need a large contigious area. And they need supply lines. ANd ideally non hostile neighbors to avoid constant warfare. In a situation like this, I suspect both are going to keep going until 1) one conquers the other, 2) one genocides the other, or 3) a war breaks out so bad that they end up deciding to not fight any more. 1 and 2 are the options that would happen in antiquity. I mean, I feel like Israel tries to allow palestine to exist because theyre trying to be humane. We kind of consider conquest and genocide to be no nos in the modern era for good reason, but in the past, thats what would happen. A war would break out, the winner would kill and enslave the loser, and things would move on. For most of israel's history, it was under the control of various empires and often a vassal state to them. And when israel was sovereign, it was so basically after genociding the people who lived there (again, see joshua...). I feel like for the flak israel gets, they're kinda showing restraint and trying to be humane, but then palestine...just isn't. They're genocidal, and extremists themselves, and they simply want control of the area period. And while they mightve had a case 75 years ago, these days, I feel like that ship has sailed, and the only answer for them to control it is if they genocided the jews, which would be a humanitarian crisis.
As for the third option...I bring that up because that's the path Europe took, take france and Germany. From the 1870s to 1940s, those guys had a grudge match against each other. Franco Prussian War, WWI, WWII, they always sought to conquer each other. But after WWII they became allies, in part because the war was so destructive no one in europe had a stomach for another one, and in part because we shifted into a cold war and by that point france and germany had similar governments, were both allied with the US (well the western half of germany was...), and they were united against the soviets as ideological foes. And these relationships in Europe persist today and conflict in Europe is relatively rare outside of things like the balkan states after the USSR collapsed, and the whole Russia in Ukraine thing. Most countries are in the EU, most are in NATO, they all get along with each other, tensions have eased, and yeah. Things are going swimingly right now.
Im not sure that's an option for Israel though. Tensions are too high. The right wing government keeps winning in Israel because they fear terrorism from palestine, and the palestinians keep electing hamas and hamas....is a genocidal terrorist organization that wants the complete destruction of israel.
And right now, these terrorist attacks put palestine in a bad light, and now israel is gearing up for war. Because they see palestine as an existential threat, and they were just attacked, and they deem war to be the best option. In some ways they see this as another sovereign state attacking them. And I guess if you view the israel palestine thing as a two state situation, they're right.
So who knows how that's gonna turn out, but it's probably gonna be horrible for the palestinians. Israel is apparently already cutting off food water and electricity to Palestine (remember what I said about them being dependent on Israel for supplies) and is probably preparing for an invasion.
And who knows what will happen after that.
Anyway, with all of that said, what's MY solution for the region?
Well, ideally, we would ease tensions. The Palestinians would stop electing genocidal terrorist nutcases like Hamas, and the Israelis would ease their own stance on the issue. Ultimately, I think a one state solutions is needed. Israel is gonna have to move away from being an apartheid state/theocracy, and be a haven for all who want to practice their faith regardless of what it is. I mean, you got jews, christians, and muslims who all view the area as sacred, and they're gonna have to share it with each other. They're gonna have to integrate their muslim minorities into their country peacefully. Look at what we americans have done in recent decades with our black population. I admit things arent perfect but blacks have all the same rights as whites do and while things arent perfect we're doing MUCH better than Israel is currently doing. We try to be that shining beacon for all of these different people from different backgrounds, and we claim to be a nation of immigrants. I know that despite this there are a lot of racist and anti immigrant sentiment here, but still, I feel like we're trying. Israel is gonna have to do the same thing, and they'll likely face similar issues.
And the palestinians, they're gonna have to give up terrorism and militancy. They're gonna have to acknowledge that israel are the top dogs in the region, and be willing to integrate. I think this is a huge reason we havent seen this happen. Too many of them arent. They're just stuck in their religious extremist mindset and want israel dead and gone. And as long as they do that, and aren't willing to work with israel and integrate, israel is not going to be able to pursue this.
And as long as israel is unable to pursue such integration, well...what we see is what we get. We get israel as an apartheid security state deeply skeptical of their palestinian neighbors and on constant alert...and the palestinians are going to be poor, desperate, and due to their extremism, commit terror.
It's a no win solution and these guys seem like they're gonna keep going the way they have since the 1940s. And at this point, we might see them doing this for hundreds of years. Remember the IRA in the UK? Yeah. We might be seeing that dynamic for a long time to come in the Israel region between these two factions. Idk. I basically give up on these people. ANd this is why I normally don't get involved in this issue. It's a no win situation, and it's not my problem.
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