So, with my last message ending on a somber note, with not even I having the answers to all of the problems given the nature of inflation in the past few years and the imagery of left wing policies (particularly UBI) not resonating in these times due to the fear of them causing more inflation, I'm reminded of another time in American history in which we had significant inflation, and a mediocre democratic president in power who didn't really do anything wrong, although he didn't do anything particularly great either, with his reelection chances in jeopardy against a far more charismatic republican opponent.
And to some extent, it's become a fear of mine in recent years that what happened in the past will happen again. With our realigning moment meaning the democrats collapse with no clear vision of the future, and radical conservatism being the driving force of the next party realignment.
We were at this cross roads before, and it left us in a political dark age we are barely crawling out of now. And I fear that if it happens again, that we might be in trouble.
We are not in 2016 any more. The economy is "good" by traditional standards, minus inflation, but people are still unhappy. And the left is in a moment where it's not looking good for us. Yes, Biden is kind of floundering. But unlike back then, I'm not confident that we're in a position where a more left wing candidate with real solutions would win the day. And this election cycle, I'm not sure if such a candidate even exists. Yes, we have Williamson and West. But for every positive economic position those guys hold over Biden, they have something else about them that just makes them alienating in my opinion. And I don't think they'd resonate with normies either.
The left is in a crisis moment. And I have no easy solutions for it. In 2016 and 2020, the solution seemed easy for me. Run someone further left economically, but who was still sane on other issues. Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang were great candidates in my opinion. Instead the majority of the democratic base kept choosing dry economic centrists while leaning into identity politics, which just turns off and alienates normies.
We need big solutions to our actual economic problems, and we need to step off the gas on being annoying and extreme on other issues.
But sadly...2024 is not our time. There is no good candidate who will save us. There isn't someone I can whole heartedly give my seal of approval, and say that they are better than biden, or that they can win over biden. At best, they end up being roughly as good as Biden.
Honestly, the best we can do right now is to just support Biden.
I support Biden in 2024, not because I love the guy. I mean, if anything, I think he's just...okay. Not amazing, not terrible. He's like eating a bowl of cheerios without any milk or sugar. But I support him because when I look at him, and where the democratic party is right now, I see Jimmy Carter going into his 1980 reelection campaign. And we all know how that turned out.
I always wondered what would have happened if reelecting Carter was possible. Or if Ford won reelection in 1976, denying Reagan the presidency. I wonder how things would have been different if Ronald Reagan never confidently got in front of the nation, told them that government was the problem, broke the strikes of the air traffic controllers union, got the hostages released on his inauguration day (due to a back room deal), and cut taxes while touting supply side economics.
In 1980 onward, Reagan took us down a dark path. And it happened because Americans rebelled against a guy who told them to wear a sweater to conserve heat during an oil shortage.
I admit, Carter was, much like Biden, a mediocre and uninspiring president. But...he was what the left had at the time. And I know that no one really wants to hear that we have to vote for this guy again, especially after being told to last time.
As you guys know, i didn't vote for him last time. In part because I figured his presidency would end up like this and that it would set the left back years, if not decades. But this is where the democrats are right now, and what rut we drove the left into.
At this point, we gotta rally behind our guy, or trump is going to win again. And honestly, while I didn't believe it in 2016, I kind of believe, in 2024, that he represents an existential threat to this country.
In 2016, Trump came off as an idiot and a con artist. And I believed that if he won, the country would turn against him hard. But they didn't, and Biden barely won last time. And I've already run preliminary 2024 projections and they don't look great. Biden's chances here aren't AWFUL. I pin him at a 25-30% chance of victory as of now. But that's not great. Trump has the upper hand, and he CAN win again. And given his actions against democracy itself, I'm not sure if we can stave him off a second time.
It's not even about Trump, the man. The movement he has built around him is cultish in their support for him. And many of them are as radical and anti democracy as he is. My worst fear is much like in 1930s Germany, this next realignment could be a descent into fascism.
As such, I just have to encourage the left to hold the line this time.
Last time we were here, Ronald Reagan used the opportunity to strike down the ideology of the new deal itself. The experiment over the past half century that had created the biggest bubble of shared prosperity this nation has ever had, was over in a heartbeat. Reagan realigned the parties, away from the new deal, and toward a fixation on small government and austerity, and 30+ years of that has basically led to the hollowing out of our economic prosperity, which is why even now in 2023, people aren't happy, and havent been for a long time.
Change is on the horizon, and people are desiring it. The status quo has made people unhappy for a while, and long term, it DOES need to change. But not all change is good. Change can just as easily be bad. And the change donald trump represents could shift us from this dark age in American history, to something even darker.
Never forget, there are real solutions out there to our problems. I don't have all of the answers at this current point in time. But I would advise throwing out all progress because we can;'t get everything we want RIGHT NOW.
Again, it's not 2016 or 2020 any more. Bernie Sanders or Andrew Yang isn't waiting in the wings to save us, if only we choose them. Biden is the best we got.
As such, whatever issues we have with Biden, we can wait until 2028. By then the situation will be different, the election will be more open to a replacement, and the democrats will be in a situation where YEAH THEY BETTER GET SOMEONE BETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THERE OR THEY'RE GONNA LOSE AGAIN LIKE THEY DID IN 2016.
But 2024 is NOT 2016, and I would not advise the same approach to this election cycle I did then. Our position is too tenuous, the stakes are too high, and honestly? There is no one better in the short term than what we got.
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