So yeah, Cenk Uygur is officially running for president in the democratic primary. His reasoning seems to largely boil down to Biden's numbers are in the toilet vs Trump, and we need to save the democratic party from itself. He believes he can make a better case for the democrats than Biden can, and that by running, he opens up the party for a primary. He believes he has the charisma and platform necessary to break through the way RFK and Williamson haven't, and that he will have a progressive platform that will resonate.
What platform does he have you ask? Well, so far only four planks:
1) Paid family leave
2) $15 minimum wage
3) Public Option Healthcare
4) Fighting corruption/ending gerrymandering
I assume that this isn't it. I know Cenk well enough (from watching his show of course) that he is basically Turkish Bernie Sanders on policy. And I largely like Cenk. I might have differences with him on UBI, and as such I'm not really going to be keen on trusting him more than Cornel West or Marianne Williamson, but he would likely score about as well on my metrics as Cornel West and Marianne Williamson. Maybe a little better as he isn't as far left as West, who is basically a full on "leftist", and probably a lot like Williamson without the woo or bad political instincts that come from her specific worldview.
Cenk would, if eligible of course (and that's the real catch with him), be the best candidate in the race by far. And he would be my de facto choice barring a UBI oriented candidate.
Of course, he I don't see the dude as eligible, and to some extent, I feel like this is a huge vanity project on his part to raise his public profile. I mean, on the topic of Biden's chances, yes, Biden's chances are currently in the toilet by my own admission. HOWEVER, there are two important caveats to remember with this data.
1) It's still early. And there are still undecided voters, many of whom I expect to vote for Biden. I think that much like the 2022 mid terms, that Biden stands a better chance than the current numbers indicate. A lot can change.
2) I'm not sure another candidate would solve the image problem democrats have. Biden has been a very effective executive. He's been a solid president by any conventional metric. Much of the American public is going by feels, and many are still upset over inflation, even though inflation has dropped significantly. And while it's true that it's possible a populist candidate like Cenk could change the tide with different rhetoric, I'm no entirely sure that's the case this time.
The fact is, this isn't 2016 any more. We had solid evidence that the public wanted a populist like Bernie in 2016. Because Bernie was not in the race, Trump won. But in 2020, the data panned out differently and Biden actually had, admittedly better numbers. And I haven't seen a ton of data on different candidates, but for the most part, when I see Biden replaced in the general, democrats do WORSE. And that includes Bernie. And again, Cenk is basically...Turkish Bernie.
I like Cenk, I would vote for Cenk if he were eligible in the primary, but come on, man, this whole thing comes off as delusional. I don't think Cenk would fare better vs Trump than Biden would. I would expect him to fare worse. Biden is actually the most electable candidate this time by the numbers to my knowledge. I'm willing to be corrected here, but I would need hard evidence.
Again, this isn't 2016. The public seems to have moved on from progressive choices. Even if progressive policy is important, Biden supports many of the same policies Cenk is running on, he just couldn't pass them. And honestly, given all the inflation talk, I'm not sure the public has an appetite for more public spending right now. Like it or not (and i DON'T), this is a year where I think Biden has a better chance. We're stuck with the guy. We have to either back him or get trump. And I don't mean that in a weird vote blue no matter who dem propagandist way. I mean this in a "he's literally the most electable and the other candidates would put dems even deeper in the dog house".
Look, if I get my mail in ballot in the primary next year and Cenk's on the ballot, there's a chance I'll support him. Its him or Marianne. I care about policy primarily, and I'm voting my conscience here. But I don't seriously expect Cenk or Marianne at this point to make inroads vs Biden.
And honestly, even if they did, I don't think either of them would do better against Trump. MAYBE Cenk could make a better case to the public. He is a long time progressive talk show host with a lot of good ideas, and he could fire up the dem base, but honestly, as I see it, we're stuck with Biden for better or for worse, and he likely is the best shot at beating Trump in 2024.
I think Cenk's primary pitch is ill informed and wrong, and while I don't necessarily disagree that Biden seems screwed in the general vs Trump right now, I would disagree that this crazy plan of his is the solution we're looking for. Again, it's not 2016 any more. A more progressive candidate is not a guarantee of a better candidate with more popular support. The public's appetite is not the same as it was in 2016, and I don't think a progressive would do better this election cycle than Biden. That's just the facts as it stands.
EDIT: Oh, and he's apparently taking superpac money. After ripping Yang for taking superpac money. Yeah, this is going well...
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