100 Simulations until election day: Day 1

 So....given my reversion to the mini simulator, I've decided to use it in order to have some fun. Every day until election day (and including election day), I will post 10 simulations based on current data from my simulator. While I plan to largely do random simulations, i do reserve the right to select them on a non random basis if my simulator just misses ones that I want to share. Still, for now, I'm doing these completely randomly. I want to see if I my simulator actually predicts the real outcome before election day. As such, this is a bit like a lottery, have fun. 

Simulation 1

So, let's put aside new hampshire going red for a second as it's electorally irrelevant here and not likely to happen. We get Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, but miss Michigan. Say because of the "free palestine" folks. Could this happen? Sure. It actually is a possibility, ignoring red new hampshire.

Simulation 2

This one shows how Harris can win without PA. We get Wisconsin and Michigan, but then lose Pennsylvania, only to pick up some sun belt victories like Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina. 

I do want to point out how without North Carolina, we can't swing a victory with JUST NV and AZ to make up PA, but yeah, that's just how important PA is, it is the battleground of battlegrounds this time. Still, we CAN theoretically win without it, and this shows one potential path (btw, assuming WI and MI, all possible paths that are realistic need either North Carolina or Georgia, in addition to one other state).

Simulation 3

This is an odd one. Imagine being saved by blue Ohio. Yeah. This one ain't happening in practice. This is why the simulator was showing elevated odds for Harris though relative to my official prediction. Random defections in the more red firewall states can cause outcomes like this.

Simulation 4

This is also odd, but more possible than blue Ohio though. We win Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina, and narrowly lose. Imagine if this was Wisconsin instead of Arizona, it shows how yeah, without PA, there's not really an outcome where 3 swing states for Harris leads to a victory. You'd need 4 or even 5 without PA honestly. 

Simulation 4.5

So, this one got lost to time due to me failing to screenshot it properly and then doing another simulation, but I did want to include it anyway. 

Imagine winning with Pennsylvania (245), North Carolina (261), and Georgia (277). But then losing Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. 

This is why Trump is focusing so much on those three states, as discussed above, democrats can't win without one of those three. This simulation had all 3 but none of the others. But again, failed to screenshot, so no image here. Still I wanted to discuss it as I thought it was cool.

Simulation 5

306-232 truthers unite! Yep. This is probably the one viable combination that will get us to that magic number again. Why is this so important? because in 2016, Trump won 232-306, in 2020, Biden won 306-232. Some are saying 306-232 is inevitable and will happen again. This is the one scenario that my simulator has given me where it's actually realistic. Basically dems win nevada, and nothing else. Can it happen? Sure.

Simulation 6

This actually was an early favorite that came up in my predictions. Remember when Georgia and Pennsylvania were both as blue as each other? So yeah, it can happen. Still, given Georgia has become the reddest of the 7 I doubt this particular outcome will happen.

Simulation 7

This is a weird one where we win Michigan and North Carolina, but then lose everything else. Mark Robinson effect must be real in this hypothetical....

Simulation 8

Here we win Wisconsin and nothing else. Could actually happen in my formal forecast sometimes...

Simulation 9

Oh god, the future map third way democrats seem to want. Here we get annhilated up north so bad we lose Minnesota and New Hampshire, but we win Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. While this likely isn't happening this cycle, I could see this being the presidential map of 2040 or something if the democrats get that suburban realignment they care oh so much about.

Simulation 10

So imagine a world in which Harris wins, but the free palestine kiddies get to make their message about genocide in Palestine. This is basically it. We lose Michigan, get Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and also get North Carolina and Arizona. Not the most likely outcome, but it can happen.

Total so far

6 Trump, 4 Harris

So far this is following the general odds we would expect. Trump favored in the raw number of situations but Harris can still win, and it is a close election. Any of these scenarios, minus a couple, could happen in a situation where this election comes down to a wire. Anyway, that's day 1. I will continue to post these through election day, and I'm aiming for 100 simulations to compare the results to.