Tuesday, October 29, 2024

100(+) simulations until election day: Day 3

 So...I'm gonna be honest. Tedium is setting in with this exercise and it's getting boring. I'm getting maps that look very similar to maps already posted, many of them are uninteresting, and did you know that with this batch we will have had 5 unique 251-287 outcomes? Heheheh....yeah. This si turning into grass growing. And I don't get it. When I did the 100 simulations for today's election update, i was getting actual interesting maps at least some of the time. But these? These are just...boring. So I'll post them. I might comment on a few, but if I don't have anything to really say, I'm just gonna post the image and move on. Obviously not all of these deserve commentary.

Simulation 41

I literally did a double take to make this this wasn't posted before. We've had 3 257-281 outcomes already, and this one is different than all of them. 

Simulation 42

Other than blue Iowa, this is a boring map. 

Simulation 43

How we can lose PA an still win, all 4 states we won are tossups right now.

Simulation 44

The first electoral college tie, brought to you by...red minnesota. I doubt this one is happening...

Simulation 45

Imagine winning georgia and nothing else...

Simulation 46

That awkward moment when the free palestine whackos cost harris the election...

Simulation 47

First blue kansas map, brought to you by...the one single kansas poll being an extreme outlier. Expect a lot of these as time goes on, they happen 10% of the time give or take.

Simulation 48

Cant win without PA NC or GA with this configuration...

Simulation 49

WI/MI/PA/IA? Weird map but obama era esque...all it needs is ohio...

Simulation 50


Even if we win NC...without NV it is all for nought. 

Tally so far...

35 Trump, 14 Harris, 1 tie

Idk why this random set of simulations is doing this. When I did 100 today from this exact same simulator for my election update, I got 51-47. Here it's going 14-35. That's weird. Trump shouldnt be winning 70% of outcomes. This must be a bad sample but this is what comes up. Kinda irritates me when i saw a lot of nice harris wins in that sample but didnt wanna cherrypick because then it wouldnt be really random. *sigh*, actually random outcomes seem increasingly boring though. I'm sorry, but I'm tired of 257-281, I really am. And then not a single blue texas in 50 outcomes.

Well, that's randomness I guess...







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