So...I've noted over the past few weeks a lot of liberals have gotten much nastier over election predictions since the polls started showing their side was losing. To put it shortly, they're "coping", ie, they're shutting out information that contradicts their worldview and trying to make up narratives that justifies their current belief system. At this point, they're basically saying the polls are all wrong, RCP is biased, blah blah blah.
I covered a lot of this before. We saw the same stuff when Biden was running and losing. many people refused to admit that Biden was losing and were buying into Allen Lichtman's keys and the like in order to avoid facing this reality. They furiously refused to consider the possibility that replacing Biden may be a good idea and were willing to go down with the ship.
To be fair, on the last part, even I was reluctant to change candidates, but this was mostly because the polling at the time indicated that Harris would do worse. I have been proven wrong on that, but that's the thing. I was wrong for the RIGHT reasons. A lot of people are wrong for the wrong reasons. They're not wrong based on evidence, they're wrong based on blind tribalism and loyalty to their side. This is the kind of nonsense I did as a Christian conservative. Since leaving that "cave", I've been a free thinker, and I ultimately base my loyalty on the evidence and my own ideas. And while I have come over to the left, I've never quite fit into the left because of my free thinking nature. And this is readily apparent now.
On RCP's bias. Yes, I've considered that. But at the same time, RCP has been around for 20 years and has a long standing track record to back that up. People keep mentioning they were wrong in 2022. So? It was more blue than expected. Just as 2020 and 2016 were more red than expected. That's just polling error.
And keep in mind in 2020 we had the same claims of right wingers flooding the polls. I even tried to compensate for it in my own analyses. it made me so laughably off I feel cringe just thinking how overconfident I was in the 2020 election.
And that's the thing. You can build these psychological barriers to cope, but reality will hit you one day, and you'll be proven wrong. That day is quickly approaching and is only 2 weeks from now. November 5th. Mark it on your calendars.
The reason I'm bullish on Trump isn't because I'm cheerleading Trump. It's because I've seen this play out before. I've seen democrats get overconfident going into election season, I've seen the polls trend toward the republicans. I've seen liberals deny it...and then the result ends up being MORE pro republican and pro trump than even the polls indicate.
As things stand, we have Trump at a 58% chance of winning and Harris at 42%. However, this has shifted significantly. Last month right now, those numbers were basically reversed. And I was cautiously optimistic Harris would win.
Now...I feel like I'm witnessing 2016 and 2020 again. Just how it is. I don't like it, but it makes sense. THis election year has been notoriously pro Trump. When Biden in the race we faced the worst electoral map since 1988. Now we face the worst map since maybe...2004? So pre Obama, but at least it wasn't a wipeout for us. Anyway, Harris improved her odds. She peaked about a month ago, and she's been downhill since.
I'm seeing people saying that Trump is polling better because they're sampling Rs more heavily. Maybe. But is it because dems aren't answering polls? Or is it because as people make up their minds, they're swinging toward trump?
That is, btw, how I explained 2016. Clinton was winning, and then the last minuters swung toward Trump. And Trump won. It's not rocket science, although it is social science. And that's my personal take on the numbers. We are just losing. There's no point in denying it, or coping, if you wanna do that get off the internet and go touch grass. I live in realville here. And the reality is, WE ARE LOSING. It doesn't mean I like it, I just understand it is what it is. And yes, Harris can still win. She has a 42% chance. Let's not count her out. This isn't a blowout. But having followed a lot of elections, I have to say that if I were to call it based on current data, I would give it to Trump, not Harris.
It doesn't mean I like it. Keep in mind, I'm actually a D leaner in elections. I despite the Rs with a passion. I have mixed views of the Ds, and I'm basically an independent. But because independents are often closet partisans, you can basically consider me a D leaner. It's just a matter of getting me to show up and vote for them, as half the time they piss me off so much I'd rather not. And I'm going to be honest, I'm NOT happy with Harris and her direction with her campaign. I DO think she's losing and think her stinker of a campaign is a huge reason why. She's out of touch and listening to the wrong people. Am I happy with this? NO! I'M FRUSTRATED! But that's how I see it.
And I'm just sick of people coping and arguing with my informed opinion because they're trying to give me 57 ways Kamala can still win.
I know she can still win. I have my own election simulator and probably can come up with more weird ways she can win than you can ever think of. The difference is, I'm not coping as hard about it because I also know that there are even more ways Trump can win.
If you wanna believe whatever you're telling yourself to cope, fine, but I'm facing reality as I see it. It's only by admitting you have a problem that you can fix it, and I think we dems and dem leaners have to admit that kamala has a big problem right now.
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