So Bob Casey and Dave McCormick had a debate tonight here in PA. And I watched it and want to give my thoughts. This will be quick, as I don't have a ton to say.
Long story short, the debate followed the same pattern that most debates this election season have. Casey, the democrat, was boring and did poorly on style. Dude has the charisma of Ben Stein. So....2 on style. He didn't have a "when I defeat Medicare" moment and had no major gaffes but he was about as interesting to listen to as drywall. But..at the same time, dude clearly knew what he was talking about. he mentioned bills and decisions he made in the senate, he knew his way around policy, he was solid. 5 on substance. So Casey gets a 7/10.
Dave McCormick...he lied constantly. Nothing he said was truthful, he deflected, he lied, he was ridiculous. 1 on substance. But on style...he was far more dynamic and animated than Casey was, and I could see him resonating with normies who have no fricking clue what they're talking about. And sadly, in my experience, debates dont come down to who is more substantive and who wins on facts, but who does a better job appealing to people. And in typical republican fashion, McCormick lied, but sounded relatively good while doing it. He wasn't amazing on style either. But better than Casey. I'll give him a 4. As such, he gets a 5/10 overall.
That said, Casey clearly won the debate for me, but I'm kind of scared it will be recieved like the Vance-Walz debate did, where people seem to believe Vance won simply because he held it together and didn't start ranting about Haitians eating peoples' pets and managed to lie convincingly while not sounding too bad. Casey didn't do bad, but he was dry, and if there's anything I learned from watching debates all the way back to the Carter/Reagan era, it's that people like a dynamic charismatic personality over the guy who spits facts. Democrats are boring and like trying to make a kid eat their vegetables, it might be good for them but they don't wanna do it. They want the guy who will give them candy instead, even if the candy is horrible for them. And that's the state of politics and the state of the race in 2024. We are kinda back to the 80s in this election season where republicans lie and people like them while democrats are dry and boring but truthful but people don't like them. And yeah. That's my view on this debate.
Thankfully, Casey is up by like 3.something in my predictions, which is a little close for comfort but nominally he still has a roughly 80% chance while McCormick has a 20% chance. Nothing MAGA can't overcome if this is a good year for them, but Casey's advantage is solid enough that I'd bet on him winning.
Harris vs Trump...the map is getting redder by the day and it scares me.
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