So....it's no mistake that Harris has lost significant ground in three weeks and is now on course to lose the presidential race. We have just over two weeks to go, and I really think we need to think long and hard about what the final push and GOTV effort for Harris actually looks like. Now, what I'm saying won't apply to congressional races, but for the presidency, what is Harris's best chance of getting 270 right NOW?
So, the race is pretty messed up at the moment, but let's focus on the obvious. The top 7 swing states to focus on are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Of those, both Arizona and Georgia are increasingly looking like lost causes. Between looking at other polling aggregators and seeing the new Atlas Intel numbers yesterday and adding them to the pile, it seems pretty obvious that these are getting out of reach. They're not solidly lean R, not tossups.
Even Michigan is getting to be a lean R but I think this could just be a quirk in how RCP does their averages. There have been a couple polls that had third parties (most third party polls died post RFK dropping out but michigan still has like 1-2 of them), and they're leaning blue, but they're not included in RCP's 2 way averages. Another flaw with RCP that's making me irritated with them. As such, while that's going lean R too at least according to RCP, other aggregators can have results up to 1-1.5 points more left, which is more in line with what I'd expect. Tbqh if we were to take the numbers seriously, it's possible that middle eastern voters are throwing a hissy fit over gaza and voting for stein, but I dont even buy that narrative. I think that honestly, it's probably more in line with PA and WI.
As such, an obvious strategy emerges. THE RUST BELT! As I see it, Harris is pulling a Hillary. She's running too hard to the center, and she's also spending way too much time down south. The centrist "new democrats" think her path to victory is black turnout in the south when this is just...new democrats trying to push their image of what the democratic party SHOULD be. And it's the same thing clinton did. What was a core criticism? Trying too hard to win arizona and georgia when she should've been focusing on shoring up wisconsin, pennsylvania, and michigan. And I still believe that some variation of that, with nevada and north carolina as backups, is probably best.
So what of north carolina? Doesnt that normally vote right of AZ and GA? It did in 2020. Long story short, YES! It does, and Im not sure how I trust the numbers here as well. Just as MI seems too red for what I'd expect, NC seems too not red. Normally it polls to the right of Arizona. Georgia actually was the tipping point state before PA a few times, but generally was more in with the sun belt states. NC was often the most right leaning one. However, I do think things have shifted in North Carolina a bit in the past couple of months too. First, we'll see how Mark Robinson, the black nazi and open pervert running as governor, will affect the race. Honestly, as I see it, NC started running to the left of the other states because of them. Second, I have to wonder how the hurricane recovery is impacting them. Western NC, especially the mountainous parts devastated, are some of the reddest areas of the country. It's possible the recovery is shifting people blue, or maybe turnout will be down there simply by their lack of ability to hold elections (although I do think they're planning ahead somewhat,). Who knows? I'm just speculating. if I had to guess, it's more Mark Robinson than anything.
Right now, NC is actually substituting for Michigan in this strange election. And yeah, I wouldnt pull efforts here given it's polling a good point or more further to the left than the other sun belt states.
SHould we invest in all 7? To SOME extent. I mean, probabilistically, spreading things out rather than putting all our eggs in one basket probably helps. But tbqh, I think harris is spending way too much time down south, and I do think the final push should be for the rust belt. Come back to PA, go to places you haven't been before. Go to wisconsin. Go to michigan. Maybe visit asheville NC and see how their recovery is doing. Show that you care. But yeah, I wouldnt be investing limited resources into Arizona or Georgia as much. They're not just over the border into the lean territory at 1.1 or 1.2 or something. They're 1.6-1.8, at this point they're 2:1 trump.
Looking at the simulator's data, here's what we get with the most likely tipping points for the campaign:
1) Pennsylvania- 31%
2) North Carolina- 18%
3) Wisconsin- 11%
4) Michigan- 10%
5) Georgia- 8%
6) Arizona- 6%
7) Nevada- 0.2%
Ultimately, the math comes down to size and probability. PA is a contentious tipping point for both campaigns. It's THE swing state. It keeps showing up as THE tipping point, and with 19 electoral votes, whoever loses it is gonna have a hard time anywehre else.
North Carolina shows up as #2, with Trump flipping it if he fails in states in his column. So it's important. Wouldnt pull the plug here. Thanks Mark Robinson.
Wisconsin, yeah, Harris needs this one. It's currently most likely statistically for her to win, but the polls are sometimes misleading here and we need to watch our backs here. Technically ALL 7 are in the trump column, but we do need to watch here in particular.
MIchigan is basically larger wisconsin.
Again, AZ and GA are kind of more lost causes at this point. I'd assume we lost these at this point and they aren't coming back barring a significant 2022 level polling error. Not the easiest path of victory for harris. This is hard mode and we're kinda sliding back down into being the underdog so I'd be investing more into making sure the rust belt +NC remains viable.
Nevada is a nice bonus. Likely isn't gonna flip anything but could in rare instances. Could deter faithless electors in the case of a narrow win.
But yeah, the rust belt has generally been the most proven way to 270 polling wise. Especially with NE2 being "safe" now and nevada being another possibility as well. Sure, try to run it up if we can, but as the underdog, just focus on WINNING. Ya know what I'm saying? Just how I'd run things if I were in charge. We need to WIN. We need to focus on where we have the greatest likelihood to win. I think AZ and GA are going red this time. Sorry. I just do.
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