Thursday, October 31, 2024

100(+) simulations until election day: Day 5

 So...whipped up another batch of 10. These are gonna be kind of weird...

Simulation 71

Solid harris win with AZ as a bonus. Not the most likely map, but it's within the realm of possibility and is one of the more "normal" ones of this bunch.

Simulation 72

Here we randomly lose virginia. 

Simulation 73

Another weird map where we lose virginia. 

Simulation 74

Weird blue kansas map...

Simulation 75

And this time we get blue iowa....

Simulation 76

Another red virginia, i had to keep double check to make sure the simulator wasn't broken...

Simulation 77

Another loss for dems. No real comment here.

Simulation 78

When we lose so bad we dont take a single "swing state" and lose new mexico. Great night for trump.

Simulation 79

Michigan, Wisconsin, and then...Nevada and Georgia. This is one of those "how do we win without Pennsylvania" maps. Given Georgia's probability of going blue is roughly 25% right now, i wouldnt count on it, but it's a possible path to victory.

Simulation 80

I mean, NH just got downgraded to "lean dem" so it's about as much of a swing state as AZ and GA are at this point...

Tally so far...

54 Trump, 25 Harris, 1 tie

This particular set of 10 is closer to a distribution that I'd expect, but yeah, we're 80% done with our sample of 100 and most are trump wins. Kinda depressing. Anyway, I'll finish this up over the next couple days and if I feel like it do other simulations too.



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