So, 8 days until election day. I did 20 simulations yesterday in two batches, and today, here's 10 more. If I feel like it I might do more later, but the point was to do 10 a day over 10 days, including on election day. But I have moved the goalposts on that, so now I'm aiming for AT LEAST 100. Anyway, here's 10 more.
Simulation 21
Here we lose everything except Arizona.Weird map. Don't expect this one to happen. Any of these theoretically can though...
Simulation 22
Here we win Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Iowa for some reason, but lose Michigan and Wisconsin. Also virginia for some reason. Probably not gonna happen, but that's randomness for you. Iowa does have a 8.5% chance of flipping.
Also, I know I made a big deal about this earlier, but don't expect a lot of Texas and Florida flips for some reason. Both of them are several points more red than when them flipping was actually a problem. So we really aren't seeing a lot of flips of non swing states. I'm seeing a lot more minnesota and virginia flips in this batch than I am red states going blue.
Simulation 23
Another random sun belt win where we pick up Arizona and Georfia, but lose Minnesota. Seeing losing minnesota a lot lately in this batch. What are you doing, Tim? WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!
Simulation 24
Another weird rust belt win where we pick up Nevada and Arizona, but lose everything else.
Simulation 25
A solid Harris win where we pick up Michigan and Wisconsin, lose Pennsylvania, but are able to flip both North Carolina and Georgia. This is the kind of pick up Harris is gonna need if she loses PA.
Simulation 26
Here we win Pennsylvania and lose everything else. And yes, I did double check to make sure these maps didnt come up before. They didn't. These are all random outcomes. I've only come across one repeat so far and it was a repeat of simulation 8.
Simulation 27
Here we win with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Mark Robinson saves us again...even as the cheese heads go Trump...
Simulation 28
Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia again...except we lose Minnesota. We also get Maine CD2 for some reason.
Simulation 29
Nevada and Georgia, no dice...
Simulation 30
Michigan and Pennsylvania but no Wisconsin...it can happen...Wisconsin tends to poll the most blue but then has the largest polling error sometimes. We could theoretically see Wisconsin go as high as R+8 as things stand. It's definitely one of those "near 95% confidence level breaking" states in recent elections.
The count so far...
21 Trump, 9 Harris
So why is this going so hard in the Trump direction? Well there are two possible reasons. One, it's just randomness. I've seen samples go like this and by the time I get 100 of them it evens out to like 57 trump, 41 harris, and 2 ties.
However, there's another explanation...and that is that the map is getting more favorable to trump. Even if my tipping point doesn't change, the map is changing every day as new polls are added, and states are still shifting around the tipping point. Today was not a good day for Harris in terms of the overall map. Texas shifted significantly more red between a R+6 and R+10 poll. Virginia had a D+2 which brought down its average a bit, and Minnesota had a D+3. So while a few weeks ago we might've been seeing regular florida and texas defections which would save harris in a lot of simulations, right now, harris has a 4% shot at flipping texas and a <2% chance of flipping florida. So that avenue of attack is pretty much closed. On the flip side, minnesota currently has a 14% chance of flipping, and virginia has a 7% chance. So the map is more favorable toward trump, whereas a couple weeks ago, it mightve favored harris more.
Even if trump's momentum in the swing states seems to be slowing and the averages stabilizing around 45-55 for the election on the whole, non swing states are still seeing shifts. At the very least we arent seeing tons of red oregons or blue iowas any more...i fixed that problem.
But yeah. That's how how things go. We'll see what my simulator spits out the next time I do a batch.
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