So. I've been watching a lot of segments from left wing commentators i listen to. TYT has discussed this. The majority report has discussed this (although i didn't finish their segment since they kept going on and on about gaza). And Vaush's take is surprisingly up my alley. The left is starting to realize understand the problem here, and I agree with them. Harris is tanking in the polls because she's running too far to the right and alienating people.
When Harris assumed the candidacy when Biden dropped out, it was like a breath of fresh air in the party. And early on, the democrats seemed to have good messaging. Because it was HARRIS'S team doing the messaging, not the DNC and their stupid consultants. We started calling the republicans weird. We made couch ####ing means about JD Vance. We said boldly "we;re not going back". Even back then, I was nervous. I had no idea what direction Harris's campaign would go in, whether it would go in a progressive direction, or a moderate one. I feared the moderate one, in part because i personally despise that brand of politics so much it drives me to wanna vote green, but in part because I believe I'm not alone and that those politics alienate people and make them wanna vote for anyone but the democrats.
Early on, Harris seemed to be on the right path. She chose Tim Walz, who was the #1 pick of progressives. I know some will still say she should've picked Shapiro, and he was my compromise, but I saw him as kinda slimey, and I don't think that's wrong. But then...she started abandoning her positions, and by the time the DNC rolled around in August, I was already feeling deflated. She leaned into all this BS "hard work" crap and "opportunity economy" nonsense. She abandoned universal healthcare as a priority. She clearly made sacrifices to try to win this mythical moderate voter. And i held my nose at the time like...well...maybe it's what is necessary to win. I follow the polls. I know that the dems are clearly the underdogs this election. I was happy just to not be at 13% odds any more.
Fast forward now, and the whole "were not going back" thing, gone. No more calling republicans weird. Apparently the consultants didn't like it. They brought on Hillary Clinton, you know, the most out of touch democratic lady in the country who lost before and STILL seems clueless as to why she did. She's touting that Dick Cheney endorsement like it's really firing people up (it's not, it's alienating them). She claims she would do nothing differently than Joe Biden but have more republicans in her cabinet. Allow me to puke in the sink for a moment.
*walks away*
*gross puking noises*
OH GOD WHY?!
*more puking noises*
*Comes back all disheveled*
Sorry about that. But that's just...how I feel about Harris's final campaign pitch. And now we're watching the balloon get deflated like Tom Brady is in charge of it and we're watching Harris lose her edge in the electoral college. I keep saying it, but as I saw it, this race is gonna be 50-50, and then toward the end of october, it's gonna break in one candidate's direction or another, and that's PROBABLY gonna be the one who is gonna win. It's "only" mid october, but so far the momentum is going toward Donald Trump. And that should make democrats crap their pants. I'm literally getting 2016 flashbacks. Remember how I had Clinton up through most of october and then her chances dropped last minute? Here's a graph I made based on my election predictions on this very blog:
Happening a little more prematurely this time, but this is why these trends matter. Again, the most current trend line I have:
Not as big of a deal, but to be fair, we dont have laurels to even rest on like Clinton did, no, this basically World War I, we're in the trenches spending months to gain minimal ground. What is the price of a mile? 83000 people, according to the math of the song. So we're in the thick of it, and even minor losses are something to be concerned about, because we literally don't have the margins to afford losing ANYTHING. And I don't know where this trend is gonna go from here, maybe it will reverse again, but still. I'm scared. The democratic voters are getting scared. Everyone is getting scared. And Harris and the DNC is like THIS IS FINE, STFU, DO YOU WANT TRUMP TO WIN! As if us pointing out the problem is why we lose. No, the dems just have this culture of not allowing dissent within their ranks. It's why it took so long to get rid of Biden. We didn't need to wait for him to have a complete old age related meltdown on stage on live TV to know this was gonna end badly. Anyone who listened to the dude speak for more than 5 minutes could tell this wasn't working. But the dems don't take criticism kindly. They just tell people THIS IS WHAT YOU'RE GONNA GET, YOU BETTER VOTE FOR IT, STFU, IT'S YOUR FAULT IF WE LOSE. And that is a dangerous strategy.
Under normal circumstances, ie, 2016, I was willing to let them F around and find out. You wanna run a crap campaign and alienate people? Fine? I won't vote for you, and I'll laugh at you and say i told you so when you lose. And man, I did have schadenfreude when clinton suddenly lost. 2020, I still refused to vote for them, but I did get concerned about the health of our coalition vs Trump's when Trump had such a strong near win.
But then trump went all sore loser, screamed it was rigged, and literally incited a mob to attack the capitol to overthrow the results, and...after that, I can't just sit back and laugh at the dems when their hilarious back tactics backfire on them any more. No. This is getting scary for democracy itself.
But, i sometimes swear, the DNC consultancy class would rather blow election after election than admit they are the problem. They'd rather lose, than be thrown out. They'd rather be in charge of a dying institution that cant win elections, than to concede power.
It seemed pretty clear to me the move to oust biden wasnt just because of his age, it was because someone somewhere wanted Biden gone. And it seemed like it was these braindead third way crapheads who despited the fact that Biden listened to progressives at all, and THEY wanted to run things. Rather than F off and ride into the sunset like the eisenhower republicans, they're fighting to maintain their relevancy in an age where the country desperately wants to be rid of these guys. And they'd rather force the same bitter pill that we vote for the garbage they serve up or get nothing every election, than to do the right thing and just...go away.
And as long as they're in charge, the democrats will all sound the same, whether it's Biden, Harris, or someone else. All democrats will follow the same policies with the same framing and the same branding, because it's what THEY want. I thought Harris was gonna push back against these guys, but no, she's letting them RUN her campaign. And it's flopping. Because NO ONE LIKES THIS CRAP!
And you know what? Vaush is right about independent voters not actually being moderate and being inconsistent ideologically. As he said at one point in his video, they'll have one view that's out of mussolini's playbook, and then another out of lenin's. It's why trumpism works in the first place. Of course trumpism is a hot mess of contradictions. it's trickle down economics mixed with populsim for crying out loud. But it resonates because there's a segment of independent voters who dont know exactly what they want, they just know what we're doing now isn't working, and they want change. And choosing between a milquetoast democrat and a firebrand populist like trump, trump suddenly looks good. it's why the obama coalition has collapsed and why these white working class guys are going trump. In 2012, when I formed my existing views, WE had that energy. I was ONE of those guys fleeing the GOP. And Obama win because he was the guy who cared about the little guy while romney was an out of touch ###hole that liked to fire people and talked about the 47% who didnt pay taxes. But for some reason, clinton and the third way were like white working class voters? We don't need you. We got republican friends now, and they tried to win over moderate romney voters. And since then, dems have struggled to win elections and their only saving grace is literally "we're not trump."
And this election is like another 2016. The economy is good, on paper. But yet, people don't care about the metrics, they're hurting, the metrics are flawed, they are ignoring that capitalism itself is flawed and in need of reform, and people want SOME sort of change. But again, they don't know what they want because unlike say, me, they're not really smart enough to do research and develop a coherent set of policies and an ideology around them to actually articulate that pain and how to fix it. So they just go to whatever demagogue tells them what they wanna hear. They could've gone bernie in 2016. And Bernie would have won. Remember the election map I made on that based on ACTUAL voting data? Who remembers "bluetah?" I do. To be fair Even McMullin might've made that one happen.
But yeah, this is the world that we could've had. But instead, the democrats got in their own way and we got Trump winning instead. Because the democrats are dinosaurs, and they won't fricking step aside and let a new generation have nice things. We need to be stuck in the 1990s forever and don't you DARE ask for anything more or better. Do you want the republicans to win? You HAVE to support this or else!
Again, under normal circumstances, I'd be fine just sitting back and letting them lose. Vote for Jill Stein and then kick my feet up and watch the fireworks happen. Can't do that with Trump though. He really IS that dangerous, and the dems need to get their heads out of you know where now. For your own good, get the hell out of your own way. Let Kamala be Kamala. Authentic Kamala was a far better candidate than this DNC rebrand being shoved down our throats. Bring back the LIFT act, aka, UBI lite framed as a tax credit. Bring back the public option. I'll even concede single payer, because i KNOW it's too far left and can't win in this environment. Just do the public option. Reuse your plan from 2020 but drop the whole "getting rid of private insurance" thing. If the suburbanites wanna keep their healthcare, let them. Just make it better for the other 65-70% of people who actually want better healthcare. Be for good things. Be progressive. Make peoples' lives better.
For all the talk from the right about how Harris is a radical socialist, and all of the talk from DNC consultants about how she can't even appear to lean into that, I'll say it. People just want their lives better. They'll vote for anyone who does so regardless of ideological affiliation. Americans arent smart. They hate obamacare but they love the affordable care act. They hate socialism but love Bernie's policies. If Harris has to sell a progressive platform under the guise of centrist framing, so be it. But to actually BE a centrist is gonna make you lose voters, because those guys don't wanna do anything to improve the lives of the American people. And just like 2016, the dems stand to lose again if they lean too hard into this framing, which is why I think harris's numbers are dropping. The honeymoon period is finally over, reality is setting in, and most people are realizing they're just getting Biden 2.0, just more moderate. BLEH!
And remember how badly Biden polled. NO ONE ACTUALLY WANTS MORE JOE BIDEN! They dont feel the economy being good. You can lecture them and scream at them about metrics, but most americans go by vibes and their immediate situations. This is also why allen lichtman was full of crap with his 13 keys. He thinks the dems are gonna win because the economy is good. But most americans don't FEEL it's good. And that's what matters. in 2016, we still felt like we were in the 2008 recession. In 2024, we still feel like we're in covidflation. It doesnt matter if the metrics say it's over and the economy is returning to normal. Maybe it is but people dont feel it. So you gotta be more populist and progressive. You just gonna be careful how you frame it. Americans arent in the mood for leftism or anything that will be perceived as increasing inflation. But at the same time, if you run to the right and do nothing, you're gonna be nailed for that.
It's a darned if you do darned if you dont scenario. But that's why trump has such an advantage. He can just say if he was in office none of this would be happening and blah blah blah and he wants this and he wants that and he can lie all day, people will vote for him because they know he's at least listening to them. Keep in mind, a lot of voters like trump because he has this undercurrent of populism to his views. His actual views might be anti populist AF. he might talk about draining the swamp while being the swamp, but then the democrats will tell you that nothing will change and you will like it. Who do you think independents are gonna vote for?
Given that, it's no wonder Harris is starting to lose. The independents are gonna make their minds in this last month, and they're starting to go toward trump. I dont know how much damage is already done. But I do know that damage is being done. And if Harris doesnt course correct, I fear that this will get worse and Trump will win.
And that's an outcome none of us want. Except maybe those DNC consultants because they'd rather lose than cede power to progressives. If we werent facing such an existential threat to democracy, I'd be fine with letting the dems lose and purge themselves. I do think another loss is needed to bring them down to earth and force them out for good. But at the same time, we are gambling democracy on that outcome, so let's just get it done, vote harris, and then decide what we do next. We're in between a rock and a hard place here. Ugh.
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