Election methodology update: abandoning the big simulators

 So....RCP decided for some apparent reason to add data to NJ which both removes it from the senate chart (D+19), while adding it to the presidential chart (D+12). This...complicates things. One of the reasons I waited until this late in the cycle to complete my "big simulators", ie, the mass simulation one that provides 1000 outcomes at once, is because it's EXTREMELY hard to update. Generally speaking I waited until this late in order to ensure that the states are locked in, and having to add or remove states from them just..breaks them, forcing me to spend upwards of an hour trying to "fix" it so it functions properly again. It's a hot mess. 

Given this is a pain in the neck and obviously taking a toll on me that takes time away from other things, and given my recent discussions about efficiency and how increased automation and technology creates more work, I've decided to abandon the big simulator project for this election cycle. The amount of work it would take me to update the simulator comes at an opportunity cost that at this close to the election is not worth it.

I will still be using the mini simulator to generate a smaller sample size of outcomes instead, however. Adapting that to my chart takes far less time, and generating 100 outcomes only takes me literally like 5 minutes. Given I will only be doing maybe 4 more election updates this cycle (next tuesday, next friday, the monday before election day, and election day), it seems far more efficient to rely on the mini simulator for data. 

To be honest, I enjoy using the mini simulator more anyway as it allows me to get a visual representation of what I'm looking at, rather than this vast spreadsheet of data where it's hard to observe what each individual trial is spitting out. I already have a decent idea of the range of outcomes my simulator puts out anyway, so I don't really need the big one any more anyway. 

Here's a random simulation from the mini simulator, because I think it looks so cool:

In this randomly generated outcome, Harris wins by winning Wisconsin and Michigan, losing PA, and then picking up Nevada and Georgia, leading to a 273-265 Harris outcome. 

You'd never actually look at this using the big generator. but this is the kind of stuff my small one puts out. It can happen, this is a random outcome. it's within the range of possible outcomes. I don't think this one is particularly likely, given GA is so red leaning at the moment, but it can happen. Any combination of the 7 swing states is on the table to be perfectly honest. Let's see what happens on election day.