So, I've been avoiding becoming alarmist, but others are becoming somewhat alarmist over Harris's odds. Harris seems to have peaked. She reached her full potential, and it's about 50-50, and as I demonstrated over the weekend, Harris 2024 is still 1-2 points weaker than Biden 2020. It's actually kind of scary. And if anything, Harris is slowly backsliding in the polls. The surges she was having have dissipated, and if anything she stands to lose ground to Trump if things continue.
People are looking at early voting indicators and finding that Trumpers are voting early too. And they're registering in high numbers, they're voting. I mean, people are voting already. I voted. I voted yesterday. My family mailed out our ballots today. We're done. It's no longer just an election day event. Sure, most people still might vote election day but many people have started voting early.
And Trump has a dangerously high chance of winning. It's the same 50-50 chance Harris has. And he might go up throughout the month. We don't know. It's possible. I do know we just had a relatively good round of polling for Trump coming out of Florida and Texas. They're getting redder again. Not that we had a good chance there in the first place.
So, people are wondering, gee, should Harris come out with new progressive policies? Would it help? The logic so far has been she had to move to the center to win over suburbanites. But now her enthusiasm is slumping. The honeymoon period is over. A lot of people find her policies and lack of difference from the Biden administration depressing. And even I, when I voted yesterday, was I voting FOR harris? In reality, as i cast my ballot, I felt more like I was voting against Trump. And I hate that feeling. Even though Harris has "earned" my vote, she kinda got it by default because everyone else running, even the third party people, suck that much.
I actually do think pushing for UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE would help. I hear it all the time. Why are we spending so much money on Ukraine and Israel but we cant spend money on our own people? And while I aint opposed to foreign aid, I kinda get the populism there. The real is republicans, but the dems dont do a good enough job fighting to show that they do want to help people. And healthcare is an issue where everyone hates the current system. I know the suburbanites are like the exception to the rule, and obviously the healthcare industry doesnt want change, and that's why we dont get change. But seriously, everyone hates the current system.
I see people online complaining about back to back $300 copays and I kind of have to sympathize. A family member has been having issues recently and went to the hospital over them. Now they're getting tested like over and over again trying to figure out the issue, and we're literally getting slammed with $300 copays too over this. It's ridiculous. THey mave medicare, they have supplemental insurance, and sure, $300 is better than the $22000 sticker price, but it's still WTF?! Our healthcare system is BEYOND broken. And the democrats are just like "isnt the ACA great? let's just focus on tweaking that."
I mean, its better than nothing. But it still sucks, it didnt address the root causes of the issue. It did some good things, but it also has some very mixed effects. Like the debate between Vance and Walz kind of demonstrated this, with Vance talking about young people opting out of healthcare they cant afford because it exploded their costs. And it did. Let's be real. This is a very obvious flaw of the obamacare model. Because the insurance industry cant price gouge sick people as bad as it was, now it has to hit younger healthier people who then opt out of the system because they cant afford care, and the medicaid expansion isnt readily available in a lot of ways. It's opt in, for one, the opt in process is not easy, for two, and for three, it's only available in some states, and only available at certain income levels. Quite frankly, it helps some people, like all dem policies, but is it helping everyone? No. Do I understand why some would not be happy with it? Sure. I literally see both sides of the issue. And that's why I think we need to do better.
Harris knows better. She's not stupid. i read her book. I know her 2020 policies. She KNOWS BETTER. She knows we need to do more IMO. But...her campaign has been cautious, she's moved to the center to avoid alienating certain stakeholders and moderate voters, and now her poll numbers are stagnating and possibly starting to decline. Because that enthusiasm she had back in July is gone. She peaked, she's going back down a little bit, and she's not out of it, she has as good of a chance as Trump does. But that's too close for comfort when running against a fascist, isnt it?
So yeah. I say, bring back the public option. I say bring back the lift act, which could move us in the direction of a UBI. I say try to do things. And when you cant, make sure you explain exactly why. Say "oh hey these do nothing republicans are stopping you from having nice things." Scream it from the roof tops. What voters hate more than anything about dems is they promised to do things, then don't, then don't talk enough about why they don't, and when asked to they act like they dont even wanna bother trying. And that's what really pisses people off. The dems often look like they dont even wanna try. Like they're happy that their efforts failed. It comes off like weaponized incompetence, and sometimes I have to wonder if it actually is. They are so bad at messaging because they're stuck in the middle trying to make conflicting demographics happy, and these voters get pissed off, stay home, or even flip to Trump, either due to fiscal conservatism or because of his populist vibes. And yeah, that's why dems lose.
So maybe Harris should shake things up. Im not sure if it will help or not. This is just a really bad election cycle for democrats. Im under the impression they could do everything right and STILL lose. Because it's just one of those years where the fundamentals go against us. But yeah, I do think Harris is slumping in polls because her enthusiasm is slumping. And her enthusiasm is slumping because she's doing the "working with republicans" thing and being a moderate. Most people dont like that. Maybe some segment of suburbanites who are genuinely centrists want this, but for most people with actual convictions, it kind of sucks. The only reason im tolerating this crap at all is because this election cycle, maybe it's needed to win. But at the same time, maybe we also arent winning because of it. Maybe we're not winning because Harris isn't doing enough. The dems are their own worst enemy and it wouldnt be the first time they blew an election over being too moderate and milquetoast. Remember 2016? I do.
So idk. It's a risk, but it's a risk worth taking. And given my own ideas and ideology, I'd like a more progressive harris. ANd I just cant help but believe that maybe the rest of the american people on some level want that too. But yeah. At least come out with a better heathcare plan. Finding out her healthcare plan sucked destroyed much of my enthusiasm for it. I even toyed with voting green again. Although I didn't do that this time. Trump's too dangerous and Stein sucks on other issues anyway. And yeah.
This election cycle is just a lost cause. I did what I had to voting for Harris but I really hope something shakes things up in 2028 in a positive way. I really felt like I held my nose this time. Really. I voted more against Trump than FOR Harris. Just being real. Ugh...
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