So, it's happened. Trump is now technically leading the popular vote on RCP. And I know a lot of people will claim "right wing polls", as someone who tried adjusting polls in 2020, no, stop that narrative right now. If you adjust the polls by the same methodology I get in 2020, you get like...the same final result give or take a couple tenths of a percent. We really are doing that bad.
And I'm freaking out. because while my forecast normally still evens out at PA R+0.6, giving us a 56% chance for Trump, the polling average (as well as generic congressional vote) just collapsed overnight by like 1.5 points, and that's not good.
Because, as discussed back in 2020, democrats need to overperform in the electoral college to win. And if we're functionally tied in the electoral college, that generally means we're down 2-3 points. Now, this election, it might be closer. I've noticed the popular vote has more consistently been about 1.5-2 points above the tipping point state. That's BETTER, but still worse than my state averages predict.
Like, if we're tied in the electoral college, I'd expect PA to be down about 1.5-2 points in Trump's favor. That's a whole point more pro Trump than now, and would effectively shift the race in the direction of "lean trump." Basically, trump would be up a full 1-1.5 points more than he currently is. This would mean the real probability for Trump is closer to 65-70% than 56%. Meaning the race is actually lean Trump, and we're basically back at pre-debate Biden numbers. That's not good. That's not good at all. For reference, this is what things will look like if we added 1.5% to trump's voter totals:
Yikes, this might be the real map if recent popular vote shifts are accurate. We might actually be at 30% Harris, 70% Trump or thereabouts. Now, this is just an estimate, but if we see polling in the next week reflect these trends, yeah, I'm probably gonna have to call the election for Trump. This isn't QUITE a Biden 2024 map, but it's starting to look like a Biden 2024 map. Harris's new car smell seems to be wearing off and we're returning to his pre-debate baseline at this rate.
And yeah, this is why I'm kinda panicking over this. We really do seem to be electing that fascist again. We survived him last time, sure. But I'm not sure our institutions can constrain him this time. This is very dangerous.
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