Tuesday, October 29, 2024

100(+) simulations until election day: day 3 part 2

 So I decided to do some more. Some of these are a bit more interesting, although some are mundane.

Simulation 51

Blue Texas is OP.

Simulation 52

On the flip side, frustrating to win 5/7 swing states but lose because of virginia and new hampshire.

Simulation 53

So...we somehow lose michigan and pennsylvania, but make up for it with ohio and iowa. Weird map. Will never actually happen, but weird.

Simulation 54

Imagine losing because New Mexico randomly defects. Weird map. 

Simulation 55

Not enough swing states, no real comment.

Simulation 56

Another weird rust belt win map without wisconsin. 

Simulation 57

Another weird rust belt win with michigan defecting.

Simulation 58

Solid win for trump.

Simulation 59

And another one...

Simulation 60

We didn't win michigan but we won many of the other swing states.

Tally so far...

40 Trump, 19 Harris, 1 tie

Here we had a decent selection of Harris wins, but we also got some trump wins similar to the ones we got. it's amazing how many different outcomes this thing is producing. Not all of them are realistic and make sense, but many are. Still, the 226-312 and 319-219 outcomes didn't come up yet. As we know from the big simulator, those are actually relatively rare in this simulator, although kind of common in reality due to the fact that states trend together and the national environment often overpowers randomness. Ah well. After doing the 100 (i figure I'll do 100 random ones), i figure i'll throw in some more that fit certain themes. I might program what i would expect from the simulator if either trump or harris systematically overperform, stuff like that. Maps that i think should come up but havent yet. But...I do wanna at least run 40 more random ones over the next few days first before I start putting my finger on the scale. Ya know? Make it fair.











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