So, there's been lingering questions about Biden's mental competence at this point. Conservatives are floating a lot of videos around showing him apparently wandering off and needing to be brought back by handlers to be in the right place, and it looks kinda bad. Admittedly, a lot of them are taken out of context, but he still looks AWFUL. Like, I admit it. The optics of this are terrible. He looks like an old grandpa who doesn't know where he is and needs to go back too the nursing home.
And then you have Trump. It's been floated he has dementia in recent years. he does jumble a lot of words. But still, he looks decent, and he could literally deliver a word salad as a speech and people would still cheer him on for it. That's the sad reality of American politics.
And to some extent, that's why the race is where it is. Neither candidate is well liked, both are highly unpopular by wide swaths of the country. But trump is known for faking it until he makes it, and even as his mind slips and turns into jello, he still LOOKS good. he still talks good, has a good tone, is able to project his voice, sound confident. Biden is more soft spoken, he stutters, he looks tired, all the time.
It's a lot like what I learned about leadership in school. We actually did, in one class, look at the speeches are various leaders. We would watch hitler speeches, having no idea what the dude was saying, but he spoke with a certain charisma that he drew people in. But then Winston Churchill was like the most boring fricking person you could listen to.
In recent decades, with the invention of television and now the internet, image is increasingly important. And I'm going to say it, looking at all election cycles with televised debates, the more charismatic candidate is the one who wins. The one who comes off as in touch with the people and their problems and is able to promote their ideology in a way that lands wins. The one who seems out of touch, of more soft spoken, or incompetent, or callous to the problems the country is facing, tends to lose.
And democrats push people who have likeability problems. It's the nerd vs jock problem. The nerd is smarter, but the jock is "cooler" and people flock to the jock over the nerd. Even if the nerd is the one who actually would be more competent, people like the guy who they can relate to. Remember, Bush beat gore and kerry because he was the dude people wanted to have a beer with. Trump beat clinton for similar reasons. He was the raging populist, and he mightve been full of crap, but most voters arent smart enough to realize that. And that's where we're at with 2024. Voters are all about vibes and likeability, not policy. I admit, trump isnt very likeable, but he's very polarizing either way. The democrats have this sleepy old guy who perpetually looks like he needs a nap. And push comes to shove, the dude who elicits strong feelings either way is likely to induce support over the guy who looks like he doesn't know where he is and talks softly.
It doesnt matter that Biden is more competent. And he is. Let's face it. Either Biden is sharper than he looks, or he has handlers who are governing in his stead who are very good at what they do. I think it's the former honestly. I think he's doing the best he can, and his actions come off as someone who is very aware of his surroundings and knows policy. He just LOOKS bad. And that's enough for most voters to go Trump.
As I said, elections comes down to one third of the country being ride or die on one side, one third being ride or die on the other, and then the remaining third of varying loyalties ends up deciding elections. Many of the remaining third do think one way or the other. They're just less loyal members of the coalitions. Like, Im not the most loyal democrat, i kinda consider myself an independent, but we all now I'd support the dems any day over the GOP. I just aint always going to show up or vote that way, sometimes going off and voting third party. So you got people like that on both sides who can either be convinced to stay home or vote third party, or alternatively, never be convinced to show up in the first place. Which actually drives a lot of the success of the coalitions. A lot of voters who showed upin 2008 and 2012 for obama for instance never showed up in 2010 or 2014. And republicans have people like that too. And then you have the true independents, the true swing vote, and they're currently trying to choose between the convicted felon who talks good and the nursing home grandpa who doesn't. An currently, many are supporting the felon.
That's just the sad reality of politics. And it's the first time the public has been this disappointing with voting. I mean, again, 2016, clinton was far better than trump. But clinton was just so alienating not even i would vote for her. I do blame that on clinton but yeah, that's a scenario where the bad outcome happens.
You have Reagan vs Carter. That's the WORST one for me. Carter was the most honest president we ever had and the public tossed him aside for the dude who told them to drill baby drill and got them hooked on trickle down economics, which I see as like introducing the economic equivalent of meth. Highly addictive but also highly destructive.
I mean, admittedly, a lot of the problem looking at history IS the democrats. They do push these stale boring people who might be competent administrators but have no pizazz. Clinton, Biden to some extent, Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter, Humphrey, etc. I mean, to be blunt, the dems suck at giving people what they want. They really do. It's because they're an oligarchy and they'd rather have their guy at the top of the ticket than dare give the voters what they want. So to be fair, they're always fighting their voters. They're always kinda ignoring them, forcing lame candidates they don't like, and then giving the shocked pikachu face when they dont vote for them. This is just another election cycle in a long history of them doing this. Most of us never wanted Biden, we dont like Biden, heck, I dont really LIKE Biden, he's just...okay. Im voting for him because hes done some things i like and because Trump is scary. That's it. Very few people LIKE Biden. And again, that's the story of the democrats' life. With the exception of obama and maybe clinton, the dems always push boring candidates who dont win. It took swanky saxophone guy and bush raising taxes to get a dem elected in 1992, and in 2008, they had hope and change guy. Beyond that, it was like, okay, we're not voting for the vice president who pardoned our LAST republican criminal president (Ford/Nixon). LBJ was legit popular in 1964. Kennedy in 60. No one wanted Stevenson. And yeah, new deal democrat appeal dropped after FDR and Truman. So yeah, it's like, the democrats just dont give people what they want.
To be fair the republicans have this issue too. No one liked Romney or McCain. Bob Dole was boring. Bush didnt look good going into reelection and he was less inspiring than reagan. Ford pardoned nixon, nixon was popular but corrupt, goldwater was considered unhinged. Nixon the first time was when TV was still new and thats where we really started seeing this charisma shift. I remember people said of 1960 that radio listeners liked nixon and his focus on substance, but TV people liked kennedy. In some ways, television dumbed down the electorate. More focus started being put on appearance, than substance, and then dems started falling apart not long after. Not saying TV is bad. But it did make vibes and appearance more important than policy. Before they listened to people on radio or read stuff in print or maybe saw the people speak in person like once. And that actually seemed to make people care about different things than charisma and appearance. Not always, you had andrew jackson being the 1820s-1830s version of trump. But mostly? Yeah. Someone like Abe Lincoln would never be elected today. Because he was ugly and probably didnt speak well by modern standards. Again, everything is appearance and vibes, and Biden looks worse than Trump does among the more swingy parts of the electorate. And that's why Biden is down and why Trump is up.
Trump really is teflon don, he really is the guy who can shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose voters. Biden on the other hand is the guy who speaks softly, wanders all over the place, and looks like an old senile grandpa. Im not saying he IS senile. But he LOOKS it, and that's what matters.
In a week, we will have a debate between these two, and I hope Biden can show that he's not just the doddering old grandpa who needs to go back to the nursing home, IN FRONT OF TRUMP. I hope he actually can make trump look bad. But even debates come down more to appearance than substance. We shall see....
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