So, the Amazing Atheist had a video about why he thinks Trump will win, and while not citing polling or anything else, he just did a vibes based video on why he thinks Trump will win.
I kind of think the vibes argument is a good one to have, so I'm going to offer my own perspective on this matter.
Whoever wins, we all lose
Honestly, I think most people are unhappy that we're basically getting a 2020 rematch. Really? This is the best we can do?
In one corner, we have Joe Biden, the guy everyone held their nose for last time, and this time, no one's happy with him. We never wanted him in the first place, the dems forced him on us again, and ugh, can't we get anyone else? But the second we propose anyone else, be it Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, the crystal lady (Marianne Williamson) or generic AI generated democrat (Dean Phillips), no one can agree on who that person is. So ugh, Biden it is, I guess...
And on the other hand, we have Donald Trump. Unlike on the democratic side, where everyone just breathes a collective sigh about how we are stuck with some old guy who belongs in a nursing home, the other old guy, people are passionate about. Well...some people. Some people are ride or die on the guy. They think he deserved to win last time and they are angry he didn't. So angry some of them staged an insurrection. And now they think these political convictions are motivated by political reasons. Idk, I mean, 34 felonies doesnt seem like an act of political targeting to me, it seems like he actually did something wrong, but for these guys, it isn't a big deal. I mean, he could shoot someone in 5th avenue, and not only would he not lose these guys, they would say that the person shot deserved it.
However, maybe there are some elements of this coalition that are less sure. Maybe they don't wanna say anything, for fear of retaliation from friends, family members, or neighbors, but maybe they arent ride or die on this guy. Maybe they want Nikki Haley. Maybe they want to get rid of Trump, but can't say it publicly. Either way, he's still better than Biden so they don't know what they'll do. Who knows?
The big issue: the economy
Why is everything so expensive, why does it now cost $20 to eat at McDonalds? Why is it impossible to buy a house? Is it because of those $1400 checks and unemployment money? That's what everyone says, I don't know the details of economic policy but all of this money being pumped into the economy aint good. And no one wants to work any more? God damned it, I just wanna go to IHOP after church (sorry, lord for breaking the second commandment) and be served on by some 20 something year old who has nothing better to do with their lives, and now they won't, because of government money. F this, F Joe Biden, I want my creature conveniences. Sure, Trump is a felon, and maybe he's a real scumbag, but at least the trains were on time when he was in office so to speak. Maybe he does know what he's doing after all, and at least things seemed to be going in the right direction when he was in office...
That's how I view the typical median american this election, by the way, but yeah, that's where most people were at.
Immigration
So, democrats were wrong on immigration, there are these immigrant caravans going in, and now republicans are shipping them to blue states, and now we gotta deal with them here. Why are we giving them money? Why doesnt the government give me money? Maybe we should deport them after all. They dont belong here, we can't support them, it's not fair to me. Maybe we should just send them packing. Oh, Trump wants to send them packing? Maybe he's my man...
Again, just how I view where the average voter is on this.
Foreign policy
Yes yes, Russia attacking Ukraine is terrible, but man, we're sending them a lot of money. We have a lot of problems here at home. Why don't we give ourselves money? Or maybe not, because inflation, but you get the idea, idk, I'm outofplatoscave's vibes based standin for an actual voter here. Logic isn't my strong suit. I have contradicting beliefs and might think RFK is actually an option. Anyway, why aren't we helping more people at home rather than sending stuff overseas? I want government to do less on this...
Still living in 2020-2021...
Speaking of RFK, you know what I really hate? Masks. You know what I also hate? Lockdowns. And you know what I really hate? Vaccine mandates. Lockdowns have been horrible for us, and we need to get back to normal as quickly as possible. And that's why I like RFK. Because he talks about being anti lock down and anti vaccines. never mind things have been back to normal since 2023, but still, it's the principle of the thing. Also, did you know I'm outofplatoscave's vibes based representation of the median voter here? Logic isn't my strong suit...
Trump's criminal conviction
Idk man. I mean, yeah, he's a felon. I know I said previously I wouldnt vote for him if he was found guilty, but I'm not really sure how much I care. I mean, is paying hush money to a porn star with campaign funds really a big deal? If this was over january 6rh maybe, but even then, I'm not even sure if that was an insurrection, ya know? I mean, it's kind of unclear.As such, idk, man. Do I vote for Trump based on the economy or Biden because trump's a felon? Idk, man.
Biden's legacy
Man what has Biden ever done for us? We elected him to do all of these things, but then he isn't doing any of these things. he just sits there looking pretty. Meanwhile my pandemic aid ran out, I can't afford to live, but at the same time no one wants to work any more, so I don't know. Do I wanna bash him for not doing enough? or for doing too much? Why not both. It's like shrodinger's Biden here.
All I know is he hasn't done anything for me recently, so why do I care about him?
Also, have you seen this guy speak? It's like he belongs in a nursing him. Can't we have someone younger? Anyone? I know the second I name someone I say "nah not them", but come on...anyone?
Abortion rights
Yeah, I know I hate the GOP for them pushing their weirdo authoritarian crap, but like, what have they done recently? THat was in 2022. Isn't that over by now? Can't we move on to other stuff? Maybe I should vote for biden here, but idk, dude leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
Trump's Authoritarianism
Idk man the dems say that in every election. I mean in 2016 they said he would be horrible and he wasnt great but we're still here. And then they said it in 2020 and I believed him and all I got was Biden who is like flavorless ice cream. And now they're saying it in 2024, and I'm kinda sick of hearing this talking point every election.
Total direction of "vibes"
Ok, so talking like my normal self again, but yeah, the above is how I think the average voter thinks. Keep in mind, the average voter isnt smart, they're not ideologically consistent, they're mostly self interested, and this time, i do think that it is plausible that they'll lean toward trump and away from biden. It's unclear if this conviction changes everything. i do think it will change the margins a bit, which could save us come election time, but yeah.
Also, note what i didnt include: gaza. I think only far leftists care about that one. I think most normies just kinda dont care if kids get bombed or not, as long as it doesnt affect them. If anything the self righteousness of the protesters might make them more sympathetic to conservative arguments on the subject. But yeah. I do think it's plausible trump will win, playing this out. We'll see how things are after this conviction and if it really changes things. But I do think we're enough in a "post truth" society where the respect for our institutions has declined enough that even a criminal conviction wont move the needle too much. I mean, people talked about shifting away from him because of it, but now that it's happening Im sure people will just find some way to rationalize it, given the general malaise in the country over Biden, and not a lot will change.
Ultimately this is an election where both sides suck, the country hates both sides, but ultimately i think the distaste of biden will probably be the stronger factor, meaning trump wins by default. It's scary, but that's where we're at. We're dealing with an extremely exhausted public who is so sick of politics, doesnt care any more, hates both parties, but due to recency bias and lingering economic concerns, probably hates biden more.
I kinda didn't know if id go the same direction as the amazing atheist on this, but playing it out in my head, yeah, I do think that ultimately people will care more about their pocketbooks and economic situation over everything else. So yeah, that's where I'm at with this. Just doing a vibes check and trying to think like a swing voter, I think that they are more likely to blame Biden for everything even if it means letting the mental case back in. Because they just dont understand how dangerous he is, dont care, or a combination of both.
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