So Axios put out an article discussing the first polls reacting to Trump's felony convictions. They covered a morning consult poll that looked at how voters reacted, and I feel like reacting to this myself.
By the numbers: 54% of registered voters "strongly" or "somewhat" approve of the guilty verdict compared to 34% who "strongly or "somewhat" disapprove.
This sounds about right. Most republican die hards oppose it while dems and independents largely support it.
49% of Independents and 15% of Republicans said Trump should end his campaign because of the conviction.
This is what I was saying. Some less loyal republicans (15% of them) and a good amount if independents are gonna be turned off by this.
The polls found the race effectively tied nationally in a 1-on-1 with Biden at 45% and Trump at 44%.
That seems to track roughly in line with what we've been seeing.
Reality check: While they may agree with the guilty verdict, the poll found that more voters think Trump should get probation (49%) rather than go to prison (44%).
I'm personally mixed. In principle, prison, but I also am weighing the electoral consequences either way. It might be better to give him probation and have him remain on the ticket if it hurts Trump's numbers IMO.
On the flip side, i really do think he should go to prison and I also think he shouldnt be allowed to continue running for office.
68% of registered voters said the punishment should be a fine.
A fine? Thats a slap on the wrist for a rich guy like Trump. No. Probation minimum, if not prison.
Three in four Republican voters said the verdict made them feel less confident in the system.
Republicans are in their own little world and dont believe in our institutions the second they stop supporting their conclusion.
And 77% of GOP voters, as well as 43% of independents, said they believed the conviction was driven by motivation to damage Trump's political career.
That tracks with GOP voters, as for independents. Well...here's the thing about independents. Many of them are closet partisans. And 43% of them having a republican leaning makes sense. Keep in mind i technically call myself an independent despite being ride or die on either the dems or the greens, so yeah. I'm also a closet partisan despite the label. It just means im not gonna buy into all of the party's propaganda. Doesnt mean I wont end up supporting 90% of their conclusions anyway.
So what does this tell me?
Well, it seems that the reaction to this is very partisan. Conservatives are gonna disapprove, including conservative leaning independents, but all in all, most people outside of that seem supportive of the verdict, although many disagree about what the punishment should be and whether the justice system was nonbiased.
On the bias question: dude. You dont just get 34 felonies. I know Nixon tried the whole "I didn't do anything Jack Kennedy didnt do" but does that make it right? Also, the guy kinda deserves everything he gets after Jan 6th. I know that this was the hush money trial so this is the equivalent of getting him on not paying his taxes, but yeah, it baffles me that we dont have a zero tolerance outlook on this stuff. The dude incited a riot. I dont care who you are. if Joe Biden did everything Trump did, I would say throw the book at him. Like really. I would be in the ballpark of "get him the fudge off the dem ticket and get someone else in there who would be better." Unless we get a downgrade on policy i wouldnt be opposed to it, and if i were in the GOP camp I'd be like "yeah get him out of here so we can get someone who can win like Nikki Haley." I mean, let's face it the republicans are united to the extent that any politician on the ticket, even a moderate, would be for most of the same policies. It's just the extent to which they take them. Full abortion ban vs 14 weeks or whatever. Trump himself WAS the moderate in 2016. people forget that, but this dude wasnt a republican before 2016. He was a democrat. He used to be pro choice. He used to be the populist "I'm gonna bring the jobs back and not mess with your social security" guy. He literally went hard right because that's what his psycho base wanted. Same with Romney in 2012. We act like hes a moderate, but he wouldve governed hard right as well. So if I were a republican, I'd basically be like "get this joker out of here and get me someone who can win this." I mean, Biden's weak, I'd smell blood, but I'd see this conviction as a liability. if polls tell me someone else would get me a greater chance to win, i'd go for that greater chance.
Only reason why on the left im so picky is you get such ideological diversity on the left that one end of the left is as far from the other end as it is from the GOP on policy. But on the right? I wouldnt worry about that.
So yeah. I have no reason to be anything but unbiased here. Like, the dude did it, he deserves prison, this isnt a miscarriage of justice. You dont just get 34 convictions for raw dogging a porn star and covering it up. He's guilty, he should do the time, the GOP should rid themselves of him, if they want to win, and yeah. That's my stance on that.
If anything any leniency that comes from me is the fact that i want the dems to win and i realize trump remaining on the ticket is a liability. It's like sticking the mammoth grave yard in blue eyes ultimate dragon in yugioh if you remember that weird episode. Made the dragon rot from within and weaken. So yeah. Just explaining my actual bias there.
But yeah. All in all, I dont know how much this will make a difference. Most voters seem to have their minds made up. it is a relatively slim percentage that could be swayed by this. But keep in mind, all we need is 2.3% to reverse Trump's current lead in the electoral college. 4.6% and we're ahead as far as Trump currently is. 7%, what was originally projected to be the political impact of a conviction, would put us ahead twice as much as he currently is. Of course that depends on whether he remains the republican nominee. If the GOP ditches Trump and puts Haley or DeSantis in there, I'd expect the GOP to surge further ahead, since Biden is extremely unpopular as of now, and a more moderate/sane candidate would only galvanize the normies more.
This really is an election that will be won by the middle, not by the partisans. Some elections it ultimately does come down to whose base wants them more. This one, I suspect, will be decided by how people react to Trump's conviction, and whether he remains their nominee. Republicans are fired up, dems are demotivated, it's a bad year for dems, but if this demotivates the GOP, we could get another situation like 2016 where it comes down to who does the public hate less. Up to now, it's been Trump, but with this conviction, maybe there is hope for biden after all. Idk, it depends how the next 2 months or so play out IMO. By august, a lot could be different. I'd say we will finally get an idea of where things are really going by August 15th or so.
No comments:
Post a Comment