So, between my election prediction, and comparing it to Biden's 2020 run, it seems obvious that there is a trend here. Biden is doing worse than he did in 2020. The country has shifted perhaps 5-6 points on average away from the 2020 results toward the right. And the results we're seeing is reflected by that.
It's not rocket science, people are upset over inflation, immigration, and question Biden's leadership. They see him as old, ineffective, and incompetent. They're starting to wonder if things were better under Trump after all. We are facing a Jimmy Carter like moment in this country right now, and yeah, the democrats are kind of screwed. However, some aspects of polling dont make sense. While I sense roughly a 5-6 point shift to the right, it's not uniform. Some states have only shifted by 2-3, while others have shifted by like 8, or even by up to like 10-12 in the most extreme cases. So I'm going to try to play the poll whisperer, reacting to my own prediction compared to the 2020 results and asking "does this make sense?"
Maine CD1- It probably does and isn't a huge shift. I only included it since I include anything within 12 points and this is at exactly 12 points, but given it went by idk, like 15 in 2020 if I recall, it seems reasonable.
Illinois- It went by 16 in 2020. So it going by 9 in 2024 makes sense. Probably accurate. Concerning, but accurate.
New York/Washington/New Jersey- Ok so these were all HARD dem in 2020. Like +20 dem. So seeing them around 7-8 is...concerning. I honestly am inclined to say that either polls are off, as we get weird results in states like this that arent really swing from time to time, or maybe its RFK screwing things up and distorting things to extreme degrees. Because even i don't think these should be even remotely swing. I could see +12, but not +7-8.
New Mexico/Colorado- Yeah, that kinda makes sense. They were like what, +10-12 last time? So I'd expect +6, which is where Colorado is, and New Mexico is better than that at +4, so...
New Hampshire- New Hampshire was like +8-9 last time so I'm happy to see it holding up as well as it is. If anything I would expect it to be lower, like in the same category as Minnesota/Maine/Virginia.
Minnesota/Maine/Virginia- Okay, hear me out, but...I think this is accurate. Minnesota was Biden +7 last time. A 6 point shift puts it at +1. Maine was +8-9. So +2-3 sounds about right. I have to admit, I'm not confident in Maine's positioning. The polling there is erratic. You got one Biden +11 poll, one Biden +1 poll, and one Trump +6 poll. So we're not even getting the same groupings here. Still, the result is roughly where you would expect it. I was surprised to see it that low at first, but given where it landed in 2020, it actually makes sense. Virginia was +10 last time, so I'd expect it at +4. It's at +2, and it's been polling pretty neutral lately. I know YApms' subreddit was freaking out over the Hill saying trump's leading there. I checked their polling and while they have more polls than RCP and it's more narrow, I'm seeing +1. So yeah, VA is really narrowing up, and we got multiple polls saying it. It's possible the NOVA suburbanites are pissed off at Biden more than normal, or maybe there is a bit of error there. Still, it's not FAR off from where I'd expect it to be so I'm gonna call it generally accurate.
Really, Biden should keep his eye on these states. We don't need another 2016 where Trump just outflanks us and starts taking states no one expects him to. This is a big warning sign. Expand your campaign here, play defense. Dont ignore these states! Heck, throw New Hampshire into the mix there. I mean those four states are are consequential as the rust belt or sun belt. TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY.
NE2- It seems dead on with my projection from the popular vote. Lost about 6 points since 2020. Yeah. Still lean Biden, but Biden can't even afford to lose this dinky little 1 EV district. He NEEDS everything discussed up to the point plus the next group of three states to hit 270.
Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania- So, these guys actually only shifted by about 2-4. And in some ways, that's suspicious. Kind of like your pets or children suddenly acting real quiet kind of suspicious. It's possible the shifts in the country are large are more limited here, but hear me out. What if....the polls are off here again? What if they're, much like 2016 and 2020, actually lowballing Trump and overestimating Biden again? What if they're literally as far gone as the NEXT group of sun belt states? They should be closer to Trump +3-5 based on national shifts. Instead they're Tie to Trump +2. That's a little suspicious?
Either way, this is probably where the election is gonna be won or lost. Biden needs to win EVERYTHING discussed up to this point to hit 270. If Trump wins even one of these, including NE2, Biden is toast. Unless he can take a harder red state, and from here, that's what we're gonna discuss.
Arizona/Georgia/Nevada/North Carolina- Honestly, this is why the sun belt strategy was always ill advised. Dems suck here. Clinton HAD to decide to expand here to run up her margins, ended up losing the rust belt (previous 3 states), and lost the election as a result. Outside of Nevada, hasnt been remotely reliable for democrats. AZ/GA/NC are basically gone. And NV is joining it. In 2020, AZ and GA were basically about the same as WI and NV about the same as MI, but now they're so much more red. Also why im wondering if maybe Biden is further behind than I think...
Florida- Going, going, not quite gone, but basically. Biden didnt win it last time, it's barely a swing state this time.
Texas- Ditto Florida. Despite the color, I actually put Florida in the same category as Texas.
Ohio- Another lost cause. Went hard red last time as they completely rejected the dems.
Iowa- yet another one. All four of these are accurate.
Alaska- Surprised I'm still counting it. Thought it would be like +16 like Maine CD2 is apparently.
Maine CD2- I mean it literally is like 13-16 in the Trump column now. I stopped counting it because it got so red.
So all in all, the prognosis? Well, again, the polling is GENERALLY accurate, I'd say. The only stuff I flat out disbelieve are the NY/NJ/WA column. We can dispute the positions of some of the others, like thinking VA should be more safe and PA/WI/MI less safe for the dems, but all in all, not much of this is actually wrong.
That said let's review the senate a bit.
The general lesson I get from the senate is that despite people hating Biden, they dont hate all democrats. NV, AZ, WI, PA, and even OH are relatively safe democratic states. They're still swing, but they're like in that 5-7 range where they only got like a 5-10% chance of shifting? Michigan is a little less safe but still leaning democrat. Montana even is leaning democrat. So democrats are still pretty popular in swing states. On the state level, people seem to like dems. They just dont like Joe Biden.
As far as Maryland goes, that's the big WTF to me. Maryland REPUBLICAN? Im kind of in disbelief, given that even now it's like a solid D+20 state. I did try to look around online for discussion of this race and the polling and most people seem to say they're only polling the delmarva area of the state and ignoring baltimore, which makes sense. Baltimore is what makes MD such a solid red state. So idk. That COULD be wrong. In that sense, we're heading toward a 50-50 senate so control depends on who wins the white house.
The other wildcard there is florida, which is heavily leaning republican, but it's still not a hard red state. It's "in play".
So...what do I make of this?
I suspect MD in my forecast is dead wrong on the senate, but everything else is probably correct, and we're heading back to 50-50.
And if people are wondering about Ohio. yeah, it's sherrod brown. You know that weird pro labor dignity of work guy. Despite the cringey phrase, he is super pro union while being moderate on other stuff, and he seems to be popular in ohio even as the state seems to shift further and further right. Kinda like joe manchin but not as crazy.
And yeah, we're losing Manchin's seat. I have mixed feelings about that. on the one hand its one less dem, but on the other hand, he's a closest republican anyway, so...yeah. F that guy. He's one of the reasons Joe Biden's presidency has been such a mediocre pile of crap and why the country is turning on him in the first place. Just glad the American people in most swing states are sensible enough to vote for dems even if they hate Biden and like Trump for whatever reason. Gives me some hope we're not just having a full on Reagan moment where we're witnessing a carteresque collapse of the democratic party. People are just repudiating the democrats for running such a mediocre candidate again that no one likes.
Seriously. I know I've said i dont advocate for replacing Biden at this point as it seems to make us even worse on the presidency, and I know Biden hasnt been awful, but I feel like the country really hates that we're stuck with this guy again. I dont think most people wanted Biden in the first place, but the party and the fact that the democrats have so little imagination means we're stuck with him. And no one rally behind a replacement anyway.
I honestly still think the country longs for progressive change, but they're kinda stupid and unimaginative, and when its the choice between a boring neolib and a populist like trump they'll go Trump. That and I think inflation left a bad taste in everyone's mouth where people are gonna shift to be more fiscally conservative for now. We gotta just ride this out I guess.
Idk what the future holds for the democrats, but I still think that people voting for Trump again is a TERRIBLE idea. i was willing to protest vote in 2016, but in 2024, I just dont think it's a good idea. Trump is too dangerous and the lessons the dems will learn from defeat would be counterproductive here.
I mean this is how I feel about Biden myself. Yeah...
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