Briefly discussing electoral strategy

 So, it's late, but I just wanted to get out a quick thought before bed. 

I'm debating people online and once again, people are getting way too bullish with election predictions, acting like we can and should try to win states like Florida, Ohio, and Texas. And I just wanna say, no, you're insane. Let me just bring back today's forecast so we can discuss where we are and what our strategy should be in various states.

Okay. So it's no mistake that we were down 6 points under Biden's failed 2024 campaign compared to 2020. When he dropped out, we were losing in virginia. VIRGINIA. Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire were light blue swing states. New York, New Jersey, Washington, and Illinois were in play. Wisconsin and Michigan were light pink, Pennsylvania was dark pink, as was georgia, arizona, north carolina, and nevada. We were screwed. I was basically saying at the time defend those light blue states, and focus everything on WI/MI/PA JUST to eek out 270.

Now, I can say that Harris changed the game. She shifted the map by roughly 4 points since then. New York is locked down and off my chart. I assume NJ, WA, and IL are in a similar state. Maine is now safe. Minnesota is almost safe. Virginia and New Hampshire are a deeper shade of blue. The map looks more natural and competitive. 

If you did the math, I said we were down 6 from 2020 and Harris brought us up by 4. That's nothing short of a miracle, and we're still going up. We actually have a shot at winning this, although make no mistake, it's not gonna be easy and we're the underdog.

We need to still focus primarily on MI/WI/PA. Those are our bread and butter. Now, GA is also coming up too and I'd say that's about as likely to go as PA now. So yeah. Putting resources there is important. From there, Arizona is also in play. Focus on that too. Nevada, well, thats only up for trump so much because of a really bad poll when Biden first dropped out for Harris, remember how bad her numbers used to be? I could see it shifting to being quite competitive when that one eventually gets cycled out. And that's our 2020 wins. From there, North Carolina isn't that out of play either, I'd make a grab for that.

But that's as far as I'd go. We NEED 270. WI/MI/PA are the best, sure fire way of getting there. AZ/GA/NV are also other possible paths though, and at this point, we can invest in those and it wouldnt be a waste. NC is just also in play statistically just behind them. All of those would give us 319 electoral votes, more than enough needed to win, and we dont need to win them all. Just enough to get to 270. Of the 7 main "swing states", we need at least 3-4 of them. And mix and match that gets us to 270+ is acceptable. As long as we get there. We have a shot in all 7, we should try for all 7. Even if we don't get them, we just need enough to win.

But beyond that...well...just look at my chart. And for reference I added texas after i screenshotted this one today and it's at +10 Trump. We aint flipping those. FLorida...eh...maybe. 8.5%. I've seen it get down to like +6 under biden, it's kind of a borderline swing state. It's in and out depending on the polling fluctuations. If we go beyond NC, FL is next, but I dont feel confident at a 2% chance here. It's a waste of time. Let's be honest. 

Texas, not happening this cycle.

Ohio, not happening. Look, if we're down by more than 8, dont bother. Double digits? Definitely dont bother. It's arogant and a waste of resources to try. Reminds me of HRC trying to win AZ, NC, and GA in 2016. Not only did we not, trying took resources away from the rust belt, and allowed Trump to win. Given campaigns have limited resources and we have limited time, no, dont play this stupidly. We need to be smart with this. Make sure WI/MI/PA go blue, focus on GA/AZ/NV/NC in that order afterward. but don't go beyond there. Maybe make some appearances for the sake of senate seats, kinda like Trump did in MT the other day, but that's it. We're not winning them on the presidential level. Don't even try.

Really tired of hearing delusional people think deep red states are somehow gonna go blue. No, they're not. We have a <2% chance of winning anything beyond NC and NV. Don't bother. Remember. It doesnt matter if its 270 or 400. A win is a win. We dont need more than 319. It's good to have redundancy, it's good to have multiple paths. We shouldnt put our eggs all in one basket if we can actually be competitive in multiple places. With Biden, yeah, all eggs in the rust belt basket. Bet everything on PA. Now, we can hedge things a bit with Georgia and Arizona. And if we can make gains in Nevada and North Carolina, that's great too. But again, dont go beyond there. it's foolish and arrogant. 

Again, play this smart. Play this safe. Win what we can win. Dont invest where it isn't wise. It could cost us everything. Just because we're on a high right now doesnt mean we should get overconfident. I just wanted to do a quick PSA on that.