Where is Harris getting her support from?

 So, Harris has had a huge surge of support in the past month that Biden had. But where is she getting her support from? Is she taking voters from Trump? From third parties, is she bringing in voters who weren't gonna vote before? let's look at the polls.

When Biden dropped out, Trump was at 48% and Biden at 45%. Now Harris is at 48% and Trump is at 47%. It does seem that Harris is possibly drawing supporters from Trump, but that is only a fraction of her support, looking at their graphs, it looks like Harris is bringing in new support from somewhere else. Are these disaffected voters who were undecided? Or are they from third parties? Well let's look at the 5 way to figure that out.

Theres no easy to read chart that tracks the candidates over time on this page, but it does not seem like theres a massive shift from third parties. Maybe a point or so from Jill Stein. RFK looks relatively stable. It's possible West lost a point to. So maybe Harris being more progressive, especially on Palestine, is drawing people back in. Maybe Harris has more good will than Biden did from the left, and is bringing people back. I know Palestine didnt influence my vote, but I am a bit more enthusiastic about Harris. 

So it does seem like she's bringing back some less enthusiastic leftists who defected from Biden to third parties. RFK may have lost a point too, but it's less clear there. So yeah. Harris is bringing back mostly third party defectors into the party. WHich is good. The left put political pressure on the democrats to respond to concerns, and Harris is forced to move left as a result, with the progressive Harris/Walz ticket bringing people back into the party. 

It seems like if you appeal to the left, you bring people back into the party. We're not bringing republicans back in mostly. We're bringing lefties back in. I just wanted to do this exercise to look at this. It's good to know who harris is appealing to and what strategy would best appeal to them. 

Before moving on, let's look at the state level. I won't link individual states, but looking at most swing states, it looks like the individual swing state dynamics are a bit different and Harris has a more polarizing role. Trump actually gains a little in polling as say 1-2% seem to align with Trump, but then Harris gains even more, which is why everything is closer. Harris might gain like 4% per state. And now things are competitive, to the point of being near 50-50. So Harris might drive some moderates to trump, but drives even more people in.

I expect this to be like 2020, a very close election, and a very polarized election. Probably record turnout numbers both ways. But one of them is gonna win. The real question is who?

Also, what does this mean of Harris's ceiling. if both candidates are 47-48%, how much higher can either candidate get? Theres only 4-6% of the population not aligned with either party. Can Harris gain that much more? Can she chip away at Trump support at all? Can she bring new non voters not counted in? Idk. Tune in next time on election ball Z.