So, not much has changed in the past 3 days since Tuesday when that round of polls radically changed the polling averages. I mean, we're still at a 25% Harris chance in the two way data and around a 50% chance (mightve dropped slightly to 47%) for the five way data.
All I'll really post is this. This is around the time when we were to finalize the decision to replace Biden or not. As I said, gather data through July, and make a decision at the end of in the first week of August. It's now August 2nd. And I can safely say replacing Biden was a good choice. I just hope we can keep the momentum going.
Keep in mind, when Biden dropped out, we had a 13% chance. Biden was losing every "swing" state and even Virginia. Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire were all in immediate danger of flipping too. It was grim. Now we've recovered to Biden's pre debate baseline, and I really don't think this upward trajectory is done either. I think we're gonna keep moving toward the 50-50 mark roughly. Idk what Harris's REAL chances of winning are, all I have are polls, but I'd say 25% probably undershoots it. I'm tempted to say it's more 40-60 in Trump's favor right now. I gotta give trump the edge, but Harris has real energy and it's gonna be competitive. Here's the snapshot of the trajectory as of now. That's a very sharp movement in Harris's favor.
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