Election update 8/16/24

 So, we've come a long way. A LONG way. For much of the race, we've been the underdog. Biden was losing to Trump all year, and as we know we've been trending toward a reversal in fortune. Harris dropped out almost four weeks ago now. And today, I have a stunning update, just in from a poll in Pennsylvania: THE LINES HAVE TOUCHED. WE ARE NOW OFFICIALLY TIED!

TIME TO CELEBRATE! WE'RE NO LONGER LOSING! IT'S OFFICIALLY 50-50!

So yeah, it's been clear by this trend that this has been coming for a while. We've been at 48-52 for like 3 days now. But then a poll came out today, and BOOM, TIED. OFFICIALLY TIED!

Let's delve into the data more:

So, let's look at things. As you can tell I'm going back to Nebraska CD2 being based on the national popular vote +2. This is because in 2020, the popular vote was 4.5% Biden, and NE2 was 6.5%. And I have no real polling there. I've been going off of Biden's data, but the race has literally shifted 5 points since then, and I have no idea what's happening there. And if I keep Biden's data, as you'll see when I get into the 5 way data, it actually will start to screw up my forecast if I leave it this way. Do you want to be perpetually at 57% because we dont know what's going on in this one small district that decides whether we get 269 or 270 electoral votes? Didn't think so. Given NE2 might become the tipping point, and it has likely shifted with the rest of the nation, I've recalculated it using my old method, which at the time was fairly accurate. And if anything, it's actually kind of conservative. It might be up by like 5-6 now for all I know. I DON'T KNOW. Well, this is a fair and just estimate. I also dont know what's going on in Colorado and New Mexico, they might be safe states now. I know I took crap like Washington, New York (which is +14) and Illinois off. They're safe. But yeah they also arent actively interfering with my forecast where they are so I'm fine just letting them stay for now.

But yeah, Michigan is now blue. Wisconsin keeps flipping between being lean blue and being a tossup, currently a toss up. Pennsylvania is a tossup that doesnt even tilt either way now and Georgia and Arizona are tossups. North Carolina and Nevada are competitive for us, Florida has even gotten back down to 6 points or so. 

Lets go back to where we were when Biden dropped out:

I mean, we were losing here. All of the swing states we were down in. 2 points at minimum, up to 6 points. Now we're basically winning Michigan by 2, and and the worst of the 7 is up 3.7% for Trump. Generally, we've had shifts of 2-6 points. 

Florida on up is about the same, but the swing states in place have REALLY swung. We were at a 13% chance with Biden, it's quadripled to 50%. We're TIED. This is nothing short of a miracle. We can actually win this now. We shouldnt get overconfident. We can still lose. It's very possible we could lose. Running simulations last night with the same chart but PA 48-52, we basically had 6 Trump outcomes and 4 Harris ones. 

As for the electoral map, yeah, we're basically at 252-268. Without PA, it's a tie. Either 270-268 or 251-287 depending on which way it goes. 

Now, what about the 5 way?

Well, we're winning there, 67.4% chance for Harris, 32.6% chance for Trump. Now, you might wonder how reliable that is. Didn't I way there is less data in the 5 way? Sure. There is. However, the rust belt is relatively heavily polled and it is generally a little more optimistic for the 5 way. It seems like more swing voters are defecting from Trump than from Harris. As such, even though this is formally a tie, I'm leaning toward Harris winning now. 

And here's the map:

Yep. 270-257 with AZ being a tossup. For the most part I wouldnt say the margins are statistically significant from the 2 way (outside of maybe PA), but yeah. Harris is winning in this set of data. 

Now, the senate. I have less positive news here. We got some new polls in and MAN tester is getting DESTROYED in Montana. He's dropped almost 3 points and that's our pivotal 50th vote in the senate.

I mean, the other 49 states are relatively safe for us. But that 50th is just a bridge too far between Tester losing in Montana and Manchin retiring. The GOP has a 86.4% chance of winning the senate. We have a 7.7% chance of winning. And of course the other 5.9% chance is gonna be a tie. And yes, the most likely outcome remains 49-51R.

And yeah, that's my weekly update. Good news on the presidential front, but bad news on the senate front. We're slipping in the senate. But we're starting to win on the presidential front. That's a good thing.