Election Update 8/10/24

 Okay, so, got another bunch of polls on a saturday of all things (I try to do my updates on friday to minimize my predictions being obsolete so quickly). And things have changed again. We're now in toss up territory!

PA is now down to 0.8% in Trump's favor, which makes it a toss up! We now have a 42.1% chance of winning, and Trump only has a 57.9% chance! This is literal coin flip territory at this point. Harris has almost the same odds that Trump had in 2016 on election day, and it's very possible for her to just flip Georgia, Pennsylvania, and maybe even Arizona given current margins. On the flip side, if Trump regains some momentum or a polling error works out in his favor, we could lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and maybe even NE2 again. We don't know. Polling isnt precise. I deal in probabilities here. Although the median prediction is still 251-287 Trump.

Still living that pale pink in PA and GA there. Keep in mind AZ isn't far behind. So yeah. At this point, we're in tossup territory. When the deciding state is within a 1 point margin, um...anyone can win. Anything can happen. I mean, you get in that 40-60% zone and it's like "flip a coin". I mean, that's how uncertain things are. 

Let's think again about how far we've come:

When Biden dropped out 3 weeks ago, we were at a 13% chance of winning. It was terrible. Now we're at almost 50-50. In the 5 way, the chances are actually inverted with Harris having the 58% chance and Trump the 42% chance.

Trumpers are coping hard. They're losing all the betting markets. I saw one of them post RCP still showing them ahead, while ignoring the margins, and it's like...uh...you realize we really are at 42-58, right? You're hanging on by a thread. 1-2 more bad polls for you and we're gonna be ahead. It's that close. Heck, if the election were held today. I would probably guess Harris would win, because hey, I've seen this before. Remember 2016?

Yeah.....

Similar odds btw. Clinton had a 56% chance, Trump a 44% chance. Yeah. So if I had to guess. Harris would pull a Trump on Trump if the election were held right now. But we don't know, and we still got 3 months ago. Don't get complacent, and MAKE SURE YOU VOTE. This is the one election you don't want to mess around about. This is potentially that big realigning one that literally decides the fate of the next generation. TRUMP MUST LOSE!