So, republicans are melting down. Trump in particular is melting down. He's apparently losing his crap, he's freaking out over Harris's crowd sizes and claiming it's "fake news" and "election interference." ANd the right is coping in so many ways. Now they're the ones saying polls don't matter, or interpreting RCP's unweighted averages in a way to be able to "technically" say that they're still winning. And let's face it. The race is a toss up.
But one thing they're saying is this is a "honeymoon" period for Harris and that it will wear off and polls will return to normal. I'm not going to FULLY discount this idea. I know as things go on I'm kind of cooling on Harris a little, as I kinda realize she might not be as progressive as I hoped she would be, and that this might represent relatively limited differences in POLICY from Biden. We dont know what her exact platform is gonna be. I will evaluate a platform when it is out, but I'm kind of bracing for impact and tempering my expectations. And I suspect others will too.
I do know this. She embraced Trump's "no tax on tips" thing which I find cringe. She's going full moderate on the border, which i find acceptable, but others may not. And it's unclear if she's going to diverge much from Biden at all. She is his VP and cant openly trash her boss's policies while he's still in office. Being a mere continuation of Biden might actually be her strategy here. And while Biden isnt bad, he's meh for a reason. Keep in mind he was the "saltine crackers and hot floater water in the desert" candidate for me. As plain as it gets, maybe even "ugh do I have to drink this?" But at least we won't die. And if Harris is more of the same, I'm inevitably gonna have depressed feelings of excitement toward her as well. So idk. And it's possible the rest of the country might feel similarly.
At the same time, I do think that Harris has changed the dynamics of the race permanently. I do think that this is our 2022 "roe v wade gets overturned" moment where our polling is shooting straight up, and idk what Harris's ceiling is, but I would expect this to be a cmpetitive race to the end. Trump is IMPLODING. He's freaking out. He's like a "confused" pokemon, and he keeps hurting himself in confusion. He doesnt know how to handle harris and every interview he has is a disaster. And Harris's responses to Trump and her campaign's meme game has been phenomenal. The energy is completely different now, and right now the base is so energized that it will likely take months, probably well after the election, for malaise kick back in. Even if the hype train aint as big as it is now, I expect us to actually have a shot now. We're well past Biden's peak this election cycle now. And all it will take is another wave of polling for us to just be straight ahead.
I dont expect a blowout. Honestly, the best case scenario is 319-219, which is 2020+NC. The most likely scenario is either some narrow win or narrow loss where the winner gets between 270 and 300 electoral votes. Right now we're winning Michigan. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia are tossups. Trump is still winning Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, although Arizona is getting uncomfortably close to being a toss up itself.
But yeah. Anywhere between 251-287 Trump and 286-252 Harris is likely right now. I give trump a SLIGHT edge, but it really is a toss up. And Harris is still going up.
Again, idk where Harris is gonna top out at polling wise. And idk if Trump will get a future bump or Harris a future drop in September or October. Anything is possible. This has been one wild ride, and we're not done.
So I'm going to say this. Harris is riding a honeymoon like period of hype, but at the same time, this might be the new normal. I do think she's a little overhyped at the moment, but shes also universally more popular than Biden was just by virtue of being younger and having a campaign team that is clearly more in touch with the base, and I also think trump LOST a step since biden dropped out. It's like he didnt expect this. He doesnt know how to deal with it. And he's imploding. Full stop. Like that's half of the equation too. Even if Harris is overhyped, it's driving Trump insane and there's simply a different dynamic between Trump and Harris than there was between Trump and Biden. Trump vs Biden worked out in Trump's favor. he was relatively young, relatively with it, and could basically bully biden in a way where biden couldnt properly fight back. That dynamic is reversed with Harris. Harris is younger, she's more energetic, and her campaign is BRUTAL to Trump. Every trump event, the Harris HQ is releasing statements about how weird and unhinged Trump is, and he IS weird and unhinged. Trump is botching every event he has and looking like an out of touch psycho, and yeah. Again. The dynamic is just fundamentally different here. He could be calm and in control vs Biden while Biden was this 81 year old with possible dementia who couldnt defend himself, while against Harris, he seems to be losing control, losing his cool, and just losing. Every event is a disaster, and Harris's campaign is on point.
And we're not even touching the Walz/Vance dynamic here. The couch thing was a rumor that turned out to be untrue, but it's VIRAL. Not to mention Vance's comments against childless cat ladies. And now theres pictures of him in drag, even though conservatives wanna ban drag. Meanwhile with Walz is just this normal guy, and he's calling the republicans WEIRD. He's like this libertarian "mind your own business" type, while vance is a creepy authoritarian project 2025 psycho. And the attacks against walz the GOP are making arent landing either. "Tampon Tim", really? Youre really gonna rip him for giving high school students free tampons? "But but they were in the mens room too". Really? Thats your argument? Trans people exist, they use them, we know you guys are anti trans but your obsession with it is just weird. Notice how when we actually come at this from a freedom prspective and defend trans rights from this perspective rather than being a "woke" moron, we actually win? Seriously, the whole reason we were losing the culture wars in 2016 and beyond is simply because wokeness is unpopular. But as long as we support the same rights woke people do but do it from a "leave people alone" perspective, suddenly we win. Because we make THEM look bad. Because theyre the weirdos obsessed with this stuff who wanna force their way on everyone. And people dont like that. And then there's the rumor that Tim Walz guzzles horse...."sauce", lets just call it that. It sounds so stupid. They made it up to counter the whole "screwing a couch" thing and it's not landing. Becaus e JD Vance is weird enough where people can believe he screws couches. Walz is normal enough where him guzzling horse stuff just sounds weird and out of character. Again, its like suddenly, these right wingers have no eenrgy and cant make an argument to save their lives.
And that's where I think I'll leave this. Because yeah. Is Harris overhyped? Yeah. Is she having a bit of a honeymoon period? Perhaps. BUT, I would guess that the fundamental dynamics of this election are changed, and there is no going back. I mean, its a lot like DBZ where one minute the bad guy is so confident and cocky and then someone shows up or gets a new transformation and suddenly they're freaking out and losing. That's where we're at right now. And while the battle isnt over, yeah we have seen a turning point, and I dont think Harris's momentum will disappear until after she wins and takes office and has to govern. I think she can hold this momentum until november at least. Idk what the 2028 election will look like. But in 2024, yeah, this is how the race is now.
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