Wednesday, August 7, 2024

So why did she actually choose Walz?

 So, I find this interesting, because I really do wanna know how Kamala is thinking about this. As I said, I'm kind of using this choice for VP as a way to judge her decision making skills, and while she's killing it in outcome, I do wanna make sure her actual reasonings are solid with this. Thankfully, articles are coming out describing the process by which she made these decisions, and I do want to discuss some things. 

Why Walz, of all people?

Was it his progressive policy? Eh, somewhat. Harris did mention he did a lot of things as governor of MN that she wanted to do nationally. A few things specifically mentioned were "reproductive health, paid leave, child tax credits, and gun safety." I do hope Harris is a tad more ambitious than this, as this is just biden's failed promises repackaged, but it is a promising sign. 

He also could bring over a lot of voters she would struggle with. He had rural midwest appeal and could probably appeal to multiple swing states, including WI, MI, PA, NC, and GA. He could bring back a lot of republicans who left the party for MAGA, which I like because I really think the whole snooty urban/suburban upper class direction of the party is a huge part of its lack of appeal. He could undo the way the parties are realigning by bringing white working class voters back to the fold under populist messaging, which would gut the MAGA coalition where it stands. So I like this. 

Part of it too was also the Israel thing, Minnesota has muslims there and he has some experience winning over muslim voters and would be less offensive on palestine than shapiro. This is a good point, given how touchy the left is over this. 

Part of his was his biography and character. He had quite an interesting history that she thought was inspiring.

Some of it was just personal chemistry. She got along with Walz and his "Minnesota nice" a lot better than most. 

But it seems like a huge part of it too was power. She wanted someone loyal, and someone unlikely to challenge her. Walz had little ambition to be president himself, and would be more likely to be supportive of harris than the competition. 

And some of it was just a gut decision. The Harris campaign prepared materials for all 3 finalists in case they were chosen, but Harris literally made the pick last minute. i think she made the best possible choice.

Why not Shapiro?

Just as it seemed that Walz would be unambitious and loyal, Shapiro seemed the opposite. He seemed too eager for the position. It was said his team was "showboating" and I do know that the Mayor of Philly released a video early about how he was the pick and it seemed like they were trying to force Harris into the position of choosing him. This didn't go well for Shapiro and it backfired massively.

Some democrats warned Harris of his extreme ambitions, and how you don't want to be ahead of him in the line of succession because he's a bit a backstabber type. 

Apparently in the "chemistry" interview, there was no real chemistry and Shapiro fell flat on his face. 

He also had a lot of electoral liabilities over Israel which would demotivate the base (she really did consider the support of progressives important, which I respect, even if I'm not gung ho on that particular issue). 

And yeah. He just wasn't the right fit. 

Why not Kelly?

It seemed like Kelly was the other finalist, but he wasn't discussed as much. It seemed like what it came down to there was he wasn't loyal enough to Biden. It really did seem like loyalty and possible power struggles are at the forefront of Harris's mind here, and he took his silence in not defending Biden post debate performance and on the border as a possible problem.

Insiders in the articles above also described him as "personally cool", and not a particularly good speaker. He was qualified on paper, but he just didn't have the personal qualities Harris was looking for.

How do I interpret all of this?

Eh, I'm mixed. While policy and electoral strategy did play a part in her decision, and I approve of those things, it seems like Harris really wanted someone who wouldn't try to outshine her or stab her in the back and she placed loyalty and her agenda above all else. I kinda get it. You kinda gotta be Machiavellian in Washington to get anywhere, and you gotta at least play defensively in that respect to not get forced out. 

Still, my own primary loyalty is to policy and my own vision here, and I interpret this primarily through that. Did she choose Walz because she wanted to push a progressive agenda and made the progressive choice because of that? To some extent. But it seemed like she primarily did it because she wanted someone relatively unambitious and loyal. Yes, there were factors to consider like political pressure from the left being unhappy with other choices, and wanting to pursue some sort of progressive agenda (which at this point still sounds amorphous and Biden like, and to the right of where she campaigned in 2020), but yeah, it primarily came down to personal chemistry and loyalty. Kelly got knocked out of the running because he wasn't perceived as loyal enough, and Shapiro seemed too overly ambitious that while it seemed like for a while Shapiro was a lock, he actually ended up sabotaging himself by being too aggressive and ambitious about it. 

All in all, I still approve of the pick and recognize this is the furthest left the democrats are probably gonna get, and that this decision is for the greater good regardless of Harris's personal feelings on it, but yeah. I still have some reservations about Harris herself. Will she be progressive? Will she be moderate? Sure, she ain't gonna propose every line item of my own agenda exactly as I like it, but will she do SOMETHING about healthcare? Will she she at least knock some of my lesser priorities off the list? Perhaps. We really will have to wait and see. I would like to see her actually put forward a platform and an agenda. Vibes are nice and she's KILLING IT on vibes, but at the end of the day, I like policy, you know? What is she gonna give us at the end of the day? Is she gonna be another Obama pushing hope and change come election time while being another centrist in office? Or is she gonna roll up her sleeves and do the hard work? It remains to be seen.

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