Election Update 8/29/24: WE ARE NOW WINNING!

 So, I understand that it's a day early and there might be more polls, but I just wanted to enshrine this moment for the ages. For the entire election cycle, things have been bleak. Trump was winning, often by large margins, although Harris closed the gap considerably. I had been starting to wonder if harris was running out of steam right around the 50-50 mark. She hit 50-50 a few weeks ago, and then she declined to like 48-52. Well, today, that has changed, and she is officially winning. 

So, I'm gonna do this a day early. I am going to give a heads up, I may be taking a bit of a break from this blog soon, but I expect to maybe do another prediction early next week if things change more in the next couple of days. But yeah, after that (or this), don't expect a ton of content for a few weeks. 

Anyway, let's get into it.

Presidential

 So yeah. We are now at a 58% chance of winning, with Trump having a 42% chance. The new electoral map now has Harris at 271 electoral votes and Trump at 251, with Georgia being a true tossup right now.

It's beautiful....

Yeah. Let's also post a chart for posterity here.

Let it be known that on August 29th, Harris finally turned things around. This came just 39 days after Biden dropped out on July 21st, with a 13% chance of winning. Harris rapidly ascended, and we finally have that break through moment now, just over a month later. 

The five way data is even better, but I won't bother posting it as I still don't know how reliable it is. but at this rate, Harris has a 67% chance and Trump has a 33% chance.

Senate

Sadly the senate has been continuing its trend of being overly rigid in the 49-51R direction. Not much has changed on this front.

So yeah. 89% chance the republicans win the senate. 8% chance democrats win it, and a 3% chance of a tie. Yikes, that's dark.

Same map as last week, with the exception of Maryland being lean dem instead of safe dem.

Simulations

I'm not gonna bother with the senate or 5 way data, but I did 100 simulations of the presidential 2 way data. 

 Results:

Dem: 73%

Rep: 25%

Tie: 2%

To be fair, I feel like these results overestimate the more dominant candidate. Heck. I know they do. And I'll cover that in another posts based on prior election cycles. 

Conclusion

We are winning. At least on the presidential level. We are finally beating Trump outright. Still kind of in toss up territory, but it's been edging our way the past few days and just broke hard tonight.