Bernie would've won 2016 (2.0)

 So, yesterday I did my 2020 estimation of whether Bernie could've won. And I do think he could have, and that he actually has a similar map to what Harris has now. It would've been a narrow victory, but a victory nonetheless. my original 2016 estimation of whether Bernie could've won just did a different methodology, but I figure this time I want to go back and look at the swing state data on realclearpolitics to account for how Clinton and Sanders respectively. I did want to get Clinton's data on the last day Sanders' data was counted, but on the state level most states go by July, so I'll just use the final averages. As such I suspect this might be a little wonky, but still, should give me a decent enough idea since if I recall, Clinton polled worse when Sanders dropped out of the race anyway.

 Virginia: Sanders +22.0% / Clinton +5.0%

New Hampshire: Sanders +20.6% / Clinton +0.6%

Michigan: Sanders +20.0% / Clinton + 3.4%

Wisconsin: Sanders +19.0% / Clinton + 6.5%

Minnesota: Sanders +16.0% / Clinton +6.0%

Connecticut: Sanders +14.0% / Clinton +12.2%

Pennsylvania: Sanders +12.7% / Clinton +1.9%

Iowa: Sanders +9.0% / +3.0% Trump

Arizona: Sanders +8.3% / +4.0% Trump

North Carolina: Sanders +7.5% / +1.0% Trump

Ohio: Sanders +5.0% / +3.5% Trump

Florida: Sanders +3.2% / +0.2% Trump

Nevada: No data / +0.8% Trump

New Mexico: no data / + 5.0% Clinton

Indiana: Trump +1% / +10.7% Trump

Colorado: Trump +2.0% / +2.9% Clinton

Missouri: Trump +2.3% / + 11.0% Trump

Georgia: Trump +3.8% / +4.8% Trump

So yeah, this isn't a perfect comparison. I couldn't get data from when Sanders dropped out to compare Clinton to, but given the popular vote margin Sanders had exceeded Clinton at the time compared to what she had on election day, I'll go with it. Let's really make a map compare Clinton and Sanders here. It tells quite a picture:

Yeah. Sanders was so much better it was ridiculous. He commanded a massive lead over Clinton almost universally in the map, with the lead often exceeding 8 points and extending well into the double digits. I understand the data is taken months apart here, but again, given Clinton's comparable data at the time arguably wasn't much better than her election day data, it does tell a picture.

Once again, here's Clinton's map on election day:

A nice, narrow, embarrassing loss that makes me wish for better times. 

Now let's apply the handicap to the situation, with the purple unknown states just getting the same outcome.

Say it with me, guys, BERNIE WOULD HAVE WON!

I mean, look at the that glorious map. We should've BTFOed that little orange crapstain. I mean, keep in mind, literally ANY map where Sanders did better than Clinton would've clinched it for Sanders, even if Sanders only did better by a single point.

You'd literally need to make up a scenario where Sanders did WORSE than Clinton for him to lose. heck, let's do that real quick, here's the Sanders vs Biden data from last night:

Applied to the 2016 map we would get:

But yeah, again, this is unrealistically pessimistic for sanders just as the original map i posted was unrealistically optimistic for him. 

But yeah. Long story short, bernie could have and would have won 2016. It wasn't like 2020 at all. Would've been a blowout.