So, I was checking 538's poll feed and have seen other data on replacing Biden that kind of contradicts the internal poll discussed yesterday.
So first of all we an ipsos poll.
Biden- Tie
Michelle Obama- Obama +11
Harris- Trump +1
Beshear- Trump +4
Whitmer- Trump +5
Pritzker- Trump +6
So this contradicts yesterday's narrative. Whitmer does terible here. Although admittedly there's a bit of a name recognition deficit here. The poll from yesterday attempted to correct for that. Still, it's risky. Low name recognition is killer for candidates. If we wonder why progressives often do such a terrible job its because they're not elevated enough name wise for people to vote for them. And then you get low voter turnout as people arent enthusiastic, and yeah, this is why most voters flock to the most known options and why incumbency is such a problem in our country. Voters are kinda stupid. They dont follow politics closely. To be fair even i have to google some of these people to read up on them, but if I have to do that, the average person is like...who?
And then you have Michelle Obama. Idk why people like her. Idk, back door Barack third term? I guess. I aint really big on Obama these days. He's another corporate dem. Of course all of these options are from the corporate side of the party. They're not polling progressive candidates. The DNC will never put up a progressive candidate. As I said, we get ditto heads because it's all the DNC will allow. The DNC is a political machine where we all must mindlessly praise dear leader and any criticism (including criticism of Biden right now) is very unwelcome. They're literally calling people who call for Biden to drop "bed wetters". The only reason the country is having this convo in general is enough people in the establishment are concerned about Biden's chances.
But yeah. This poll seems to justify the opinion that replacing Biden is a bad idea. Whitmer was ahead in yesterday's now, in this one Biden is ahead of most replacements and Harris is probably second best besides Michelle Obama.
We have a democratic primary poll that polls where people are thinking in terms of replacements. Here's the numbers
Harris- 31%
Newsom- 17%
Buttigieg- 8%
Sanders- 7%
Whitmer- 6%
Warren- 4%
AOC- 3%
Klobuchar- 2%
Very lopsided toward harris. Again, your median voter is an idiot. They dont follow politics very closely and tend to have really meh picks. Also, note how little support there is for progressives this election cycle. Sanders at 7% yikes. To be fair, the dude's older than Biden. Even I don't want sanders this election, even if he agreed to run. Why? HE'S TOO OLD! He's gonna be 83 next year. If I went in that lane of politics I'd want Nina Turner. Or Andrew Yang or something. AOC is acceptable. But yeah. That's off the table this time. There's zero political appetite in the nation this election cycle for something like that. Our primary goal is to stop the apocalypse here. You know what I'm saying? With Donald Trump, project 2025, and the supreme court basically giving presidents broad immunity powers, NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO SCREW AROUND! Just get the dem over the finish line. I get it, dems suck, but....we're literally talking democracy on the line. LITERALLY. Let's not be like the communists in weimar germany who screwed the libs to allow the nazis to take over. We kinda have to align with the libs this time. This is the election cycle to hold your nose and channel your inner "Vaush" in terms of electoral politics. Beating fascism is the #1 priority. You dont argue over whether we go to Pizza hut or KFC when the car is half way over a cliff. You know? We're kind of in an emergency here.
But yeah. It seems like Harris is the heir apparent and Newsom is another option. Policy wise, of the establish allowed candidates, they're not bad. We could do worse. They're actually more progressive than Biden is. BUT...and again, to go back to the emergency thing...CAN THEY WIN?! Well, that's what we're trying to find out.
Here's another one from CNN:
Biden- Trump +6
Harris- Trump +2
Newsom- Trump +5
Buttigieg- Trump +4
Whitmer- Trump +5
So here we once again see that Buttigieg and Whitmer arent the saviors we thought they would be. Sure, better than Biden here, but Harris is actually the best one here.
Honestly, these polls raise more questions than answers. We got one poll that says stand pat with Biden, the one yesterday was like we want Whitmer and Buttigieg, and this one is saying we want Harris.
This is why I keep saying we need more data. The more the better. We need to get a complete picture of what's going on because the variance in each poll is gonna do this. Keep in mind these things all have at minimum a three point margin of error, if not 4. That means if Biden is at 45%, he could be anywhere from 41-42% to 48-49%. This is why in my electoral predictions, I put every state below 8 points in polling as considered "in play".
Because if Biden is at 45 and Trump is at 47, we might see anything ranging from 51-41 Trump to 49-43 Biden. And the same thing applies in these kinds of polls. The CNN one (1274 sample size, so let's assume 3 point MOE) had Trump at 49 and Biden at 43. So that means 52-46 for Trump and 46-40 for Biden. Harris makes it 45-47, which as I said, could be anywhere from 42-48 for Harris and 44-50 for Trump.
It's better to have some overlap than none here, but yeah. That's what we're thinking at probabilistically. We need a lot of polls to get averages to really give us a decent picture. Because the real numbers can actually be that many points off. And a lot of the time when I look at averages in my official predictions, the actual individuals polls are all over the place. We might see like Trump +3 in PA, but then you'll have some polls be ties, and other polls be Trump +6. It just AVERAGES OUT to Trump +3. Get it?
That's why we're seeing off the wall varying numbers here. Different polls get different samples of people, there's variance within samples, there's a certain amount of error and inaccuracy assumed. And yeah. We don't know what we're doing yet. Dont rush the process. Feel it out. Everyone seems to wanna rush this thing, either get him to drop out now, or make him the decisive candidae to end discussion now. NO. Wait it out, make a decision with a better picture of what's going on.
EDIT: forgot that Data for progress one from last week:
Biden- Trump +3
Harris- Trump +3
Whitmer- Trump +2
Newsom- Trump +3
Pritzker- Trump +3
Buttigieg- Trump +3
Shapiro- Trump +3
Klobuchar- Trump +3
Booker- Trump +2
Yeah. Virtually no difference depending on candidate. Different polls tell very different stories.
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