Harris is gaining fast....(emergency election update 7/30/24)

 So, as you guys know, i normally wait to do my election updates on fridays, but this polling shift is just...wow. It doesn't change my overall prediction that much yet as Pennsylvania remains stubborn for Trump, but the map is shifting RAPIDLY, and a new round of polling in tonight has shifted the averages dramatically, so I did want to provide a brief state of the race.

So yeah, let's go over this. Another Minnesota +10 poll brought MN up to +8 Harris, making it just barely in play at all. Michigan, is now in our column, we're +2 there, thanks to today's round of polling having Harris up by 11 there. Wisconsin is down to 50-50 territory. Pennsylvania is still stubborn and hanging around the 3 mark, coming down slightly to 2.7. Georgia is now down to 3.6 so just a little behind PA. Nevada is down to 4, that wasn't even IN PLAY last friday. Arizona is 4.2, North Carolina is 5.5, and yeah, it looks like we're back in business. The overall prediction doesn't change much since the tipping point is still PA at 25% Harris and 75% Trump, but that could very quickly erode for Trump too. 

Running my simulator, it's now giving me 10-15 Harris outcomes for every 100, although this is based on sheer probability with each state as a separate trial. When I run them with a modifier added I get around 30 Harris outcomes out of 100. That's improving. 

All in all, the electoral map is now 241-297 Trump, still favoring Trump, but that lead of his is eroding fast.

 

This is starting to look like one of Biden's better maps. Even he struggled to get beyond 226-312 mostly. But yeah. The rust belt is turning blue. The sun belt is turning pink again. Nature is healing. And it's glorious to see.

But wait, there's more...

Okay, so, that's the two way data. What about the five way data? Well, that's the thing. That's even MORE crazy to me. The race is pretty much 50-50 in the data with third parties.

Wait, you mean it's actually 50-50? YES, IT'S ACTUALLY 50-50! And North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are looking pretty good, all within 2 points. 

 

Yep, we're at 260-262, with Wisconsin being the deciding state at literally 50-50. We can't even predict a winner here. 

To be fair, my simulator still slightly favors Trump by a margin of about 55-45. Maybe it's because based on pure randomness Trump still has a slightly easier path, but I'm still gonna call it roughly 50-50. We are competitive!

Now why is this? Well, i thought it was just randomness and statistical noise until today. Then I started realizing, no wait im getting the same polls both 2 way and 5 way and the 5 way is going more pro Harris, what gives? And then I was listening to I think breaking points today talking about RFK Jr...and they posited that RFK is still taking votes away from republicans, while disaffected democrats are excited by Harris and actually going back to the democrats.

That's the thing. Harris's energy is...terrifying if you're a conservative. She's filling stadiums, she has people cheering for her, excited for her, Biden NEVER had this. it was always "ugh, Biden I guess". People are cheering for Harris like they were for Bernie. Or like they were for Obama in 2008. THE OBAMA COALITION IS BACK, BABY! We have the energy. And we're WINNING. 

Well, maybe not winning yet, but give it a few more weeks. The point is, Trump's massive advantage is being whittled down one poll at a time. It's only a matter of time before Harris IS the frontrunner. 

This is GLORIOUS. MORE OF THIS! MORE. I NEED MORE. I WON'T STOP UNTIL THE MAP LOOKS LIKE THIS, MUAHAHAHA!

 

ALL YOUR SWING STATES R BELONG TO US!