So, I've been hearing people saying that the reason Biden thinks he can turn this around is because this is like 2022. The dems were down in the polls, apparently, and look at how they overperformed.
Yes, democrats did overperform, but the overperformance wasn't that massive. And there were signs the democrats were going to do decently for a while.
For a while, WERE dooming. 2022 looked like a massive red wave. Then SCOTUS overturned Roe v Wade in June and the polls turned on a dime for the dems. We went from being a blowout for the GOP to the dems having a chance. And from June/July on, things got pretty even. People act like the polls in 2022 were so off, but in reality they weren't. Here's my final forecast. Dems were down less than a point in Georgia and Pennsylvania. They won in both states, but come on, knowing everything we do about polls, was that a big feat? No, it was near 50-50. Nevada was a bona fide overperformance around 3 points, but even then, there was a 23% chance that could happen. And if we actually go by my track record of predictions, tilts seem to flip 30% of the time or so. So this wasnt outside of the realm of possibility. The point is, yes, we overperformed. But the overperformance was well within the margin of error.
For a while, I was saying that if we had an overperformance of 3 points, yes, we could win. Wisconsin and Michigan were within a point for the past several forecasts, and PA was anywhere between 2 and 3 points. But now it's 4.5%. We're going the other way. Also, we NEED PA to win. Otherwise we need Nevada and another state at minimum. Without PA, we don't win. Most sun belt states have been in the 4-7 range, Georgia is currently 3.7%, but without Nevada, which is at 4.6, it doesn't matter.
We only have a 13% chance here. We're screwed. And that's IF we get an overperformance. A more realistic overperformance would just have Michigan and Wisconsin flip and other states remaining red. That puts us at 255 electoral votes. Again, without PA, we're screwed.
And keep in mind, we're JUST as likely to flip the other way. Which means Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia could all flip red. For a while, that was just as likely as a Biden win in general. Now it's MORE likely than a Biden win.
Statistically, the difference between a 3 point shift and a 4.5 shift is significant. We go from around a 25% chance or so, to 13% chance. Our odds drop in half.
And keep in mind, the key factor the dems think that's gonna save them here is the fact that as we got into general election season in June/July, the odds would shift in Biden's favor. I can tell you, I didnt do election predictions earlier, but before June/July, the dems were as screwed as they are in 2024. BUT, again, Roe v Wade being overturned generated a lot of energy for dems, and polls evened up QUICK. We're at that inflection point now, and the polls are going the other way. We suspected Trump's criminal conviction would shift things, it didnt do anything either way. And now Biden's poor debate performance is throwing him into freefall. Things arent getting better, they're getting worse. It seems increasing apparently that nothing is gonna save us. We are screwed. And at this point, if Biden can't improve his numbers by August, and if there's evidence for another candidate doing better, he should drop. Because if you can't at least maintain a 25-30% chance by August? Eh...that's all folks. I mean, a 2-3 point overperformance can happen. 4+....not so much. I mean, it CAN, but i wouldnt gamble a campaign on it.
The thing is, polls are more valuable than the naysayers think. The naysayers are burying their heads in the sand and going full cope mode. They're going all in with "the fundamentals" and the 13 keys theory and claiming the polls will magically even up.
This is the most lopsided campaign that I've ever followed outside of Obama/McCain in 2008. I was doomering in 2008 as a republican about as hard as I am now. I didn't delude myself. I knew stats from college back then. Heck, I remember sitting in my literal stats class trying to calculate the odds in the fall of 2008 for a competition in the political science department about who would get it best. I didn't win, I was off by one North Carolina, but I did do a decent job regardless. I used a 3 point MOE back then and I had McCain at a sub 5% chance of winning. With my new methodology with 4 point MOE, I'd say 8% chance.
Right now Biden has the same chance of winning in 2024 as Trump had in 2020, and I overshot that by culling the polls. I aint doing that this time. Maybe experts like 538 wanna, but I'll let the data speak for itself. If anything, that's what made me so off. Biden in actuality only had a 62% chance. Not the 89% chance I gave him. So...we're at the point where Trump is ahead as far as i thought Biden was ahead. And btw, despite Trump overperforming and winning North Carolina, ME2, Florida, he STILL lost. Biden won, but he did so narrowly.
If Biden overperforms, again, he'll still lose, just more narrowly. I don't see a win here. He's at a 1 in 8 chance right now. It can happen, but I wouldn't count on it.
So yeah. This isn't like 2022, we shouldn't expect some massive overperformance to save us. We are legit screwed, and we should operate under the assumptions that yes, we are screwed. No reality denial, no miracle scenarios, accept reality. And figure out where we can go from here.
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