Election Update 7/26/24

So, the madman did it. He decided to turn down seeking another term. I've been mixed on this decision electorally. I'm risk adverse, and we didn't see a lot of data Harris would be a better choice. However, five days out, the energy in the democratic party is changing radically. It's actually a shift for the better. We have ENTHUSIASM, and elections are generally won with enthusiasm. But, ultimately, we need to understand the polling to understand where we're at, so where do we stand?

National polling

So, this is an experiment chart I made just to measure Harris against Biden and other possible candidates. Now, at this point, it's gonna Harris. Everyone endorsed her, it's been an easy process, and she's clearly the right decision. Her FIVE WAY polling is better than Biden's 2 way. And her 2 way polling puts her ahead.

Here, I did try to estimate the possible electoral margin based on the national polling alone. I'm gonna have to play with this, but for now I'm assuming a 2 point deficit for democrats, where they'll need to win the popular vote by 2 to break even in the electoral college. Even if Harris is coming ahead of Biden, it's gonna take a lot of work to dig us out of the hole Biden and the democrats dug us in. Remember how I said we were down by like 6 compared to 2020 nationally? Yeah. We're now up by one compared to where we were. Better than nothing, but we still need too overcome a significant electoral advantage to actually win.

Electoral college data

So, there is a lot to take in and digest, so I made an electoral map that should really summarize and help us visualize what has happened in the past week.

So, I'm gonna go over things top to bottom on the first chart. As you can tell, I'm just axing New York, New Jersey, Washington, and Illinois for now. I have no data on them, and it was weird they were considered swing states in the first place. I also have no new data on Colorado, New Mexico, and NE2, so I'm just using Biden data as a placeholder for now. Again, new candidate, need new data, we need polling in all of these states, these charts are a work in progress and under construction.

Now that said, we do have significant amounts of data and polling already. Blue leaning swing states like Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Maine are now much further left again. A lot closer to where they are expected to be. Remember, with Biden, he was LOSING VIRGINIA, and Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire were only 2-3 in Biden's favor. New York and New Jersey were down to the 7-8 range. That's TERRIBLE. And that's why everyone was crapping their pants over this. You get that bad, youre in "screwed" territory. 

Now, the rust belt. The rust belt is also shifting a bit back to the left. It's not enough to flip them, but most of the damage from Biden's bad debate has been nullified. It's positive movement.

At the same time, the sun belt is getting worse. As is Ohio, which I'm not even counting any more. It's Trump +13, I'm just dropping Ohio. But the sun belt is worse. Georgia is still in play but slightly worse. Arizona the same. Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida aren't even technically in play any more, although I admit, data is relatively scarce. It's possible more polling data moderates this effect, but yeah, the overall effect Harris has on the race is that it polarizes the electoral map. Blue states Biden was at risk of losing are secured. Red states Biden had little chance of winning are even more out of reach. Those crucial rust belt swing states that will decide the election are moving back left but are still in the Trump column.

Harris's odds are up to 22.7%, whereas Trump still has an 77.3% chance. Again, it's an uphill battle. The electoral map is still the same old 226-312 for Trump, but at least we got Virginia back and we're working on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. We get those, we get 270. As I said the other day, no, Harris's path to 270 ISN'T different than Biden's. It's basically the Biden map but with the trends more amplified and the map more polarized. The one best path to 270 is through WI, MI, PA, and NE2. MAYBE GA. But anything else in the sun belt...don't bother. As I said, Harris should go with Josh Shapiro and try to lock down the rust belt. Don't go with like Roy Cooper or Mark Kelly or Andy Beshear or whatever. Shapiro is what you want, he's what you need. Or Gretchen Whitmer. Or maybe even Tim Walz if I wanted to be ballsy. JB Pritzker is an okay choice too. But yes, rust belt oriented pick, possibly a progressive. That's your path to victory, Harris, right there.

Now, all things considered, are we better with Harris than we were with Biden? Yes, a little bit. And I do believe that ultimately, we will have more potential to make up more ground over time. It's an uphill battle either way, but we're already seeing an overall improvement.

I'll leave Biden on this chart and just have Harris take over from here. We are moving back in the right direction and have more or less recovered from the damage Biden's debate caused.

Now, before I move on, I'm just gonna say I'm not gonna do 5 way data yet. The data there is even sparcer and more erratic, and while Harris has a better chance currently according to the 5 way data, this is also because there's a much smaller pool of polls to choose from and the least flattering polls for Harris are simply not present in that data. I will say that the 5 way data does have the PA tipping point at +0.3% Trump and that gives Harris a 47% chance, and Trump a 53% chance, but again, I don't trust this. This isn't a genuine trend toward Harris, just a quirk based on the small sample size of data. 

Senate forecast

Yawn, this is the same as last week, a few margin changes but nothing particularly out of the ordinary. 

Same old 49-51R with the republicans having a 64.6% chance, the democrats a 7.7% chance, and a 27.7% chance of a tie. 

Conclusion

I know that this isn't the most optimistic forecast. I know everyone is enthusiastic for Harris right now. And that's GOOD. Enthusiasm wins elections. Keep it up. I'm not saying we can't win this. Polls are a snapshot in time. But, Biden was down so much it's gonna take a lot digging out of the hole we've been in and possibly a little luck to win. I do think these numbers are trending in the right direct overall, and if we keep going, we might actually have a shot here. Trump is SCARED. He's literally scared of Harris I think. Because now the energy is different, harris is the young candidate people are passionate about, and Trump is the weird old man who basically is putting people to sleep. So keep going, and maybe we'll win this. 

EDIT: New data came out; had to replace some data