Would Bernie have won in 2020? A look back...

 So, we all know by now that if Bernie had went up against Trump in 2016, he would've won in a way that Clinton did not. But what of 2020? 2020 was a bit of a different animal, and whatever polling average Bernie had over Trump vs Clinton in 2016 had all but evaporated by 2020 vs Biden.

In general election polls, Bernie was up by 4.2% vs Trump in 2020 when he dropped out. The data stopped being counted on April 7th, and that's what his average was at the time. Biden was up by 6.1% at the same time. So, Biden did have stronger polling, and was about 1.9% ahead of Bernie. Even going by different dates, Biden generally led Bernie by 1-2 points. Given the election came down to 1.2% in the electoral college with Biden, that might not have been particularly good. But how did he do on the state level vs Biden, and did he have a viable path to 270?

Wisconsin- Sanders +2.0%/Biden +0% (3/29)

Pennsylvania- Sanders +2.8%/Biden +3.0% (3/8)

Michigan- Sanders +4.5%/Biden+ 4.5% (3/8)

Florida- Sanders -4.3%/Biden -0.5% (3/12)

Georgia- Sanders -10.5%/Biden -0.7% (3/2)

Arizona- Sanders -1.4%/Biden +3.4% (3/15)

North Carolina- Sanders +0.7%/Biden +3.4% (2/28)

Minnesota- Sanders +9.0%/Biden+12.0% (10/16/23)

Texas- Sanders -2.4%/Biden -3.0% (2/27)

Ohio- Sanders +2.3%/Biden +6.0% (3/15)

Nevada- Sanders +2.7%/Biden +4.0% (1/8)

Iowa- Sanders -7.5%/Biden -4.8% (3/5)

New Hampshire- Sanders +3.7%/Biden +4.5% (2/25)

So, let's visualize this based on the kind of map I used for Harris vs Biden today:

So....yikes. It does appear that Bernie was a far worse and less electable choice than Biden was in 2020. This isn't like 2016 at all. Bernie was a possible electoral liability. BUT...let's look at the data closely. Sanders still performs roughly equally to Bernie in the all important rust belt states, and lets face it, other states that are mentioned here honestly didn't really go for Biden in the first place anyway. A few did, but others did not. So let's really compare what the final electoral maps here would have been. 

Here's the actual 2020 map for Biden:

As we can see, many states were narrow for him. How would Bernie have fared, given these offsets in the voter margins?

Well will you look at that? Bernie still would have won. It would've been narrow. The sun belt would've been closed off, but all and all he would've pulled it off, barely. The pennsylvania margin would be just under a point. Keep in mind, Bernie was most robust in the rust belt, even if he was weaker in other parts of the country. A lot of the other states didn't like him, but most wouldn't have gone for him anyway, the only two flips that would've happened were Arizona and Georgia, and they flipped HARD.

 Southerners don't like "socialism" very much.  Of course, being a rust belt dude myself who is open to Bernie's policies, I don't like the south's politics myself. Too conservative for me. And I resent the dems for trying to pursue the sun belt with the intensity they are. it's not like we really win it anyway. We lock down the rust belt, and we win the election. It would've worked in 2016. It would've worked in 2020. And it's still the most viable path to winning 2024.

But yeah. This answers the question, assuming the margins were the same as when data stopped being gathered, bernie would've won. Now, given reality is messier than that and there's a higher degree of variability, would Bernie have DEFINITELY won? Was it POSSIBLE for him to lose? Oh yes, very possible. Biden won by the skin of his teeth and Bernie's win would've been even narrower in this mode. He still would've pulled it off, but let's face it, given how close it was, ANY error in the favor of Trump would've shifted the election the other way (although it is possible Bernie would've fared better than presented here, so he still probably would've pulled off similar margins regardless).

Now, at the time, did I care? Not really. I bernie or busted in 2020. If Trump won, I just saw it as politics as usual. He didn't start getting actually SCARY and talking like he does now until after he lost. Now he acts like he wants to be a dictator and literally tried to overturn the results in 2020. He's a scumbag. And yeah, he should absolutely be avoided if we want to preserve our democracy. So that's why 2024 is so much different for me. 

In 2016 and 2020, I just wanted Bernie to win. I didn't care if the dems lost otherwise. I wouldve rather lost fighting for what I believe in, than winning with something that I didn't. And while Biden has proved himself to be better than i thought he would be, I honestly just thought differently in 2020. I didn't recognize the limits to the overton window at the time. I genuinely did believe bernie could win, and to be fair, by my methodology, he WOULD have still won. It was just more of a gamble. I wasn't actually wrong. But if I looked at Bernie today like I looked at him in 2020, I would NOT want him to be replacing Joe Biden. I mean, when you're ahead, you can have the luxury of running a slightly weaker candidate. And in 2020 all the polls had us up by insane amounts. The polls proved to be wrong, and Trump overperformed again. But when you're coming from behind like we are now, you want the absolute strongest candidate you got, and you gotta be willing to make some ideological compromises to win. So this time, I'm willing to shift a bit to the right just to maintain a democrat in the white house and preserve democracy.

Again, 2024 is a special year. It's not a normal election year. 2020 was a "normal" year for me. And it was a year where the dems seemed to be ahead and we had the luxury of purity testing the dems and driving them left. This year the stakes are higher and we can't afford that. So it IS a pragmatic year. And I'm glad Harris is working out polling wise, even though it narrows our electoral path like Bernie 2020 would've anyway. But at least here we get a rust belt BOOST. Bernie didn't, he just kinda broke even, which is why we still would've won, but yeah. 

Anyway, so there you have it, bernie would've (probably) won. I won't yell and scream it like I did in 2016. In 2016, not only could he have won, he probably would've man handled trump. Here, he would've just barely held on. Still, a win is a win and I have to give it to him.