So....rumors have been flying around a lot today, and it really does look like Biden is gonna drop out. He's not gonna steal Trump's thunder on his big RNC night, but apparently he might drop out of the race over the weekend. Nothing's official, this is all strictly rumors, but everything seems to be converging around this.
And I'm...actually going the other way on this. I mean, I've really let the data on Kamala sink in, and believe me, we got TONS of new data right after published that article last night, i hate how that happens, that's why I normally do my election updates on weekends, and....yeah. I don't like what I'm seeing with Harris's odds. We just got a new poll today out of PA where she's down by 7 to Trump. Given that's the tipping point state, that literally gives her a 4% chance of winning the election, worse than the 5.2% yesterday based on older data.
Look, Biden sucks, and his odds suck, and I get why people want him out. But...as the data coalesces, i think it's a mistaken. Harris is, generally speaking, 3 points worse than Biden in most swing states according to the most recent data. And honestly, I think someone like Whitmer or Newsom would be even worse.
I know the people backing Biden seem increasingly few and far between and a lot of them are backing him out of tribalism or party loyalty, and not because of the raw data (many of them seem to deny the data and claim "polls don't matter"...although to be fair, so do the supporters pushing backing him), but yeah, I'm going primarily on raw data here. At this point, Joe or Kamala are functionally the same on policy, if anything i actually slightly like Kamala or Newsom better, but again, if they can't get elected, what's the point?
We're not in a position where we're leading the race and can afford to be picky of nominee. We are LOSING. BADLY. We need to throw anyone, anything at the wall and see what sticks at this point. But for me, the thing that's sticking the best...is Biden. So I'm just gonna say it, while I can be wrong, and data can change, based on what I have on hand RIGHT NOW, this is a mistake. Removing Biden from the ticket is a mistake, based on what I know now. It means we go from a 1 in 8 chance of winning, to a 1 in 25 chance. Might be better to put it in horse racing odds as 13% and 4% both sound bad. But keep in mind, 13% is 3x what 4% is. But if I'm betting on a horse, and I'm up against the kentucky derby winner, and I have to choose to bet on an 8 to 1 or a 25 to 1, I'm going with the 8 to 1. The odds are much better on the 8 to 1. 8 to 1 horses win semi regularly. 25 to 1 is considered "longshot" territory. You can make insane money, but they almost never come in, that's the point.
We're passing over the 8 to 1 on the basis of them stumbling a little bit over age, for a 25 to 1 that cant win a race to save their life.
That's where we're at here. And I think it's a mistake. I admit, the data can change, polls are just a snapshot of where we are now, not where we will be 4 months from now, but that's the thing. I think the party is going in the wrong direction here. Wouldnt be the first time in recent years.
And yeah, I just had to say it. Heres the data on Harris as it stands right now.
Now, you might see she's doing better in Michigan and Wisconsin. Ignore that, that's old stuff. That data is months old. Look at Arizona on down. That data is from the past couple of days. I literally ignored the older data from months ago in favor of the recent stuff, since we need the data from NOW to make a decision here. Not to mention the old data isnt that flattering either. But yeah. She's down 6-10 in states where Biden is down 4-7. Guys, what are we doing here? This is fundamentally irresponsible. We are actively making the situation worse here. We're taking a huge gamble in hopes it works out, and I really am starting to think this is a bad decision. We just get the data NOW telling us NOT to do this, and the party is going all in on forcing Biden out. I'm not doing this to be contrarian. if the new data had Harris up by 3 instead of down by 3, I'd be like "okay". But really. Why are we doing this? holy crap. Again, this is irresponsible. We wait for the data and then we make a decision based on the data. We're getting the data in now and it says "don't do it", so why are we doing it?
I know I'm repeating myself, but I'm just baffled here. I really think we might be making a mistake. I've said it all along, getting rid of Biden is risky. And now it's looking like the risk won't pay off.
Now to be fair, the dem strategists also have internal polls. And sometimes the internal polls tell them something way different than public polls do.
But I also aint sure how much I trust these internal polls. Mitt Romney was literally in delusional lala land in 2012 because the internal polls kept telling him he would win. The public ones were accurate. He lost. So...idk? How accurate are these internal polls? Can we trust them? What makes them different than the public ones? I don't know. I know that the one internal poll they have is bleak I know that they seem to tell a different story than what I see, but uh....how...reliable is this? Because the stuff I see tells me that replacing Biden is fundamentally irresponsible.
So that's just my opinion on this. maybe it will prove to be wrong or age poorly. But I can't support this move. I really have to back Joe here. It's not because I like Joe or have some loyalty to him, as I understand anyone else the DNC puts up can push the same policies and do the same job, and i do understand that Biden is old, has image problems, and every time he speaks he seems to dig himself into a hole (but apparently trump can ramble for 90 minutes and people act like they wanna give him an oscar for it), but still, he seems like the safest option we got. That's just the data speaking. I'm following the data. You can criticize my opinion but I'll defend it since I know I'm reaching this conclusion based on the evidence available.
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