So I discussed leaked polling earlier and ran election scenarios in which I found out replacing Biden greatly increased dem odds but didn't lead to a win. But now I'm finding another similar slide with different numbers.These numbers are a bit more positive for replacing Biden. I won't go super into specifics and worrying about Maine and Virginia and all of that, but just running the 7.3 swing states available, this is what we get:
Biden: 225-313 Trump
Michigan is the tipping point with a Trump +5 lead, Biden- 10.6%, Trump- 88.4%
Buttigieg: 303-219 Buttigieg
In this one Buttigieg wipes the floor with Trump and produces a map more similar to 2020. The tipping point is 2.2% in PA, giving us a 70.9% chance for Buttigieg, and a 29.1% chance for Trump.
Harris: 235-303 Trump
Here we get something not unlike my pre debate map for Biden. PA is also the decider at 2.8% Trump, which gives us the same odds as my official forecast too. 24.2% Biden, 75.8% Trump.
Newsom: 251-287 Trump
Newsom does a little better than harris. PA is only up 2.4% for Trump, giving us a 27.4% chance for Biden, and a 72.6% chance for Trump.
Whitmer: 276-262 Whitmer
PA is at the same 2.2 as it is for Buttigieg. Still, Buttigieg wins the sun belt while Whitmer doesn't. It's kinda like a Biden vs Bernie situation in 2020 where both win but then Biden won those sun belt states. Anyway, same overall odds as Buttigieg, 70.9% Whitmer, 29.1% Trump.
And there we have it. Whitmer and Buttigieg can beat Trump. Newsom and Harris are somewhere around existing polling on Biden pre debate (my numbers), and Biden is just crashing and burning.
If this is accurate, replace this man, but I'd like to see alternative numbers from other, more reliable pollsters.
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