So, we had a poll already showing virtually no difference between Biden and alternatives polled, but now there's a DNC internal poll from openlabs that's been leaked and is causing quite a stir. I dont know how trustworthy this data is, i dont go by one poll anyway, I go by the aggregates, but it is worth discussing.
So, let's visualize this with some electoral scenarios. Where a state isn't covered, I'll just fill it in based on what I know/can assume from other polling, but yikes, this is NOT good.
So, this is the Biden pre-debate scenario: 225-313 Trump
My gosh, this is already worse than I expected. NM down to 1.9, Colorado down to 3.7, the sun belt practically gone. The tipping point at 5.1%, which, btw, gives Biden a dead even 10% chance of winning, with Trump a 90% chance. That's BAD already.
Post debate however...
It's over. Pack it up. The tipping point in PA is at 7.3%. We're literally at a 3.4% chance of winning the election now if this poll is true. We have a 96.6% chance of losing. It's that simple. This is worse than 2008 for the republicans at this point. We are DONE! COOKED!
Of course, it is only one poll and some of the numbers even pre debate were kinda wonky to me, but yeah. This really is that bad.
However, they did poll some other candidates. So let's run this again with the two way horse race numbers and compare:
Biden vs Trump: 203-335 Trump
Some minor changes but where no guidance was given I'm working with the same map. I'll adjust the other averages roughly based on the Biden baseline. We're dealing with a 5 point tipping point in Michigan, giving us a 10.4% chance Biden wins and a 89.6% chance Trump does.
Buttigieg vs Trump: 251-287 Buttigieg
I shifted the polling averages a bit for states I didn't know, but yeah. here we come so close, but Buttigieg is just basically 0.8% short of winning PA. That puts him well within the margin of error. I'd say Buttigieg has a 42% chance of winning whereas Trump has a 58% chance. MUCH better than i've seen all year.
Harris vs Trump: 221-317 Trump
I mean, given the margins of states like VA and NM and given how she did slightly better than Biden I saw it worth flipping them back to the blue column. But this isn't great. And this is why I never wanted Harris in the first place. She's kinda awful. Tipping point is PA at +4 Trump, so that basically gives her a 15.9% chance of winning PA, and Trump an 84.1% chance.
Newsom vs Trump: 231-307 Trump
Newsom only does about a point or so better than biden in practice, but he does bring down the margin a bit as a result. Tipping point is PA at 2.6%, which would give Newsom a 25.8% chance of winning and Trump a 74.2% chance.
Whitmer vs Trump: 251-287 Trump
SO FRICKING CLOSE, THE CLOSEST YET! Whitmer takes back the rust belt and only narrowly loses PA by 0.6%, that gives her a 44% chance of winning, while Trump still has a 56% chance.
Conclusion
So yeah, this is only one poll. We're likely to see a lot of variance among polls. This one was kinda wonky. But yeah, long story short, Biden's polling looks HORRIBLE here. He's cratered by two points and was already losing by more than my own electoral predictions indicated. If we account for these changes, we're talking like 3-10% chance for Biden here. Replacing him helps. Harris brings it up to 16%, Newsom to 26%, and Buttigieg and Whitmer bring it up to 42-44% respectively. No candidate has a straight win, but if I were to make a decision based on this, I'd be pulling Biden out and putting Whitmer or Buttigieg in there. It's the only way.
Of course, i'm not gonna make such decisions based on one poll of shaky origin, but still, but it does paint a picture, doesn't it? We go from being BTFOed and destroyed to just barely losing and being within the margin of error.
More data, please.
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