Wednesday, July 17, 2024

So it seems like politics are already back to normal....

 So much for "unity" and olive branches....

So yeah. The civil war within the democratic party continues in which Biden tries to save his flailing bid for president. Pelosi seems to want him out. The DNC is talking about an accelerated roll call to end the debate and nominate him now. Bernie is backing him and seemingly angling to get more progressive policies out of him.

And as far as I'm concerned, I'm leaning toward team Biden. The fact is, yes, Biden LOOKS old. And yes, his age is a problem. BUT, as the data comes in and I have to make a case for replacing him based on what I have, I can't. Harris does at best only marginally better than him, and honestly, Biden's numbers are improving. It's also unclear if Harris's popular vote lead applies to swing states at all and whether it's consistent. Remember, with bernie in 2016, we were talking like a 6-9 point lead for Bernie over Hillary. Here, we're talking like 1 point at best, with the state level benefits being anything from 1 point ahead to significantly behind. I just ain't sold on Harris. And the data is even weaker on alternatives.

I'm leaning toward the idea that sticking with Biden is the best move. If the data very strongly led toward an alternative, I'd go with it, but outside of that one internal poll of questionable origin that seems to largely contradict my more "meta" approach to the data, I'm just not sold here. The data for replacing Biden is weak. It's all optics and feels regarding his age and percieved electability. But as I've said from the get go, we dont have anyone else who can actually win. Biden is still the best card to play and replacing him is like hitting on 19 in blackjack. Will it work? Maybe. But you also are most likely to bust instead. Do you really wanna try it? I wouldn't.

On the conservative front, Trump's going back to attacking "the radical left" on social media, and yeah, this RNC, I aint giving my complete thoughts until the end of it, but yeah it does have weird fascist vibes, especially with the Trumpers waving their fists yelling FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT. Authoritarianism experts are freaking out and saying this looks like Nazi germany again. Uh...yeah.

So it looks like whatever moment of eased tensions we had are already passing, and things are back to normal. And I'm just gonna say what I think without hold back much. This assassination attempt was horrible, it never shouldve happened, but the world doesnt stop turning because some weirdo lone wolf guy decided to take some shots at him. Trump is still an authoritarian ###hole fronting a scary authoritarian agenda based in christian nationalism, and the democrats still have an election to win. It really does seem like the shooting changes nothing in politics at large. 

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