So, I was listening to Matt Dillahunty on the line discussing whether Biden should drop out, and a big argument that kept coming up was that Biden seems capable, he has deep foreign policy knowledge above and beyond what most people have. I admit this. He is very skilled. But I think that the issue with biden right now is two fold:
1) The presidency is a demanding job. He's 82 years old and showing signs of mental decline, can he keep up to it?
2) Even if he can, is his image tarnished to the point that dems are better off with someone else?
On the first question, it's unclear. Biden is very skilled, yes. BUT...he's old. And he looks tired. And he confuses words, and yes, we all confuse words, I've made a lot of errors similar to what Biden has before and I'm in my 30s, most politicians do. Remember Obama and his 57 states or McCain delivering babies hot water? Yeah, those happened. At the same time, the frequency of the errors is the problem. And the fact that Biden started off strong is a decent sign, but he shows a lot of decline in stamina as the entire thing continued.
An old guy might be able to work in short bursts. That's fine. but again, the presidency is one of the most demanding jobs in the world. You need to be ready to go 24/7. The presidency ages the crap out of even the most youthful looking people going into office. And this dude is already 82, above the average life expectancy. He's not terrible for his age, but if he is experiencing mental decline, it's gonna start with stuff like this and get worse. He might flub some words, but then he'll do it more and more, and he will have to go to bed earlier and earlier (some say he's "sundowning"), and yeah. That's not a good sign. We can talk about how skilled he is at the job but it doesn't mean that he can do the job any more. My dad is skilled at HVAC but he's in his 70s and retired, and he ain't about to be hauling industrial air conditioners across roofs any time soon even if he did that 15+ years ago. People get older, they retire, the retirement age is 66. Biden is 82. Old people are skilled at their job in terms of knowledge, but that doesnt mean they can physically keep up to it any more. And Biden might be reaching his limit here. I'm not a medical doctor who can diagnose him. I have access to the same public info everyone else does but nothing more, but some of what we've been seeing is concerning. And it might be time for Biden to hang it up and let someone else take over.
Which brings us to the second question? This is more complicated in some ways. I wish we could've known about this sooner so we could've had a proper primary. People said he was too old, but most were ignored and written off as grifters and "not team players".
But...here's the thing. If this is his BEST, his A game, what he brings to debates and high stakes press conferences where he needs to explicitly not F up...is he screwed? Yes. Because he's gonna keep doing this. And it's gonna be in the public eye. And the public will KNOW he's screwing up. And KNOW he's too old. And they'll keep going on about how he's too old. Biden LOOKS old. He ACTS old. And given much of the American public is about VIBES with elections, with the more charismatic candidate NORMALLY winning, Biden is kinda sucking right now, and he has an image problem that is likely not going to go away and get worse.
And yes, Trump is arguably just as bad or worse. He called Nancy pelosi "nikki haley" several times, called a doctor ron jackson instead of ron johnson or something. He goes on on the most incoherent ramblings ever at debates, but you know what? The dude exudes confidence and at least a level of youthfulness that paints a marked difference relative to Biden. It's not that he's better than Biden, but he at least is able to mask it or play it off a little better. Honestly I think BOTH these guys are too old and showing signs to hang it up. But Biden LOOKS older, so he's getting more flak. Still, it doesnt matter. Trump is the other side's nominee, they chose him, they're ride or die on him, and we have to campaign against him. And currently Biden isn't doing the job. As I noted today, he's at a 10% chance of winning, and his odds have tanked hard from his 25% or so baseline since this started. He's NOT going to win.
Will replacing Biden be a good idea? We still don't know. harris is starting to look better, but her numbers dont exude confidence either and it's not like she's significantly more likely to win than Biden is. Dillahunty himself said in the aforementioned stream that if Biden has a 70% chance and Harris a 74% chance, that's not really a significant enough change to change candidates. Here we're talking 10% vs 14%, but the same principle applies. The difference isn't necessarily large enough to matter at this time.
In terms of the SKILL of the presidency, I'll say this. Look, if we consider FRICKING TRUMP qualified enough to run, I dont think we should have any issues finding qualified people. it seems like despite its difficulty, the presidency is also a job with a relatively decent skill curve, given people are going to be surrounded by advisors who can guide them through it. Harris has already been VP, if Biden croaks, she's it. IMMEDIATELY. Heck, Harris on the ticket at Biden's age is basically like voting for her as president herself too. And she WILL do the job effectively. Honestly, most candidates who run for office who have prior political experience would. And I could even see someone like Yang learning as they go if we managed to bumble through 4 years of TRUMP. I mean, HIS issue is ego and stubbornness. Most people who run are more than qualified, and someone like Harris, yeah, she'll do the job fine.
Really, what matters right now is the electability question, and whether Biden can continue to deal with the DEMANDS of the job. Biden is appearing to struggle and will continue to struggle if he gets a second term, he might even step aside at some point and hand the reins to Harris. And he's failing on the electability front.
I guess, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. You vote for Biden, you're gonna get Harris at some point anyway if Biden DOES fail to fulfill his duties, Harris is it. It's really just a matter of electability at this point. Is Harris more electable? Maybe. Data is starting to tip that way. Although to be fair there isn't a massive difference either way, and Harris's numbers dont inspire much more confidence than Biden's. It's risky. Do we stick with the guy we have even if he's sundowning? Do we replace him with someone who could do better or could do worse? This isn't an easy decision to make. It's why I think the FINAL decision should be made around the end of the month or early August. We need to collect data, and then do what's best for the party, and the country. Right now, we don't know.
However, I will say this. I do question Biden's abilities to continue to do the job for four more years, and I do wonder if he can even win at this point. Of course, I also wonder if Harris can too.
Honestly, if I have to vote for Biden's dementia riddled corpse to get the dems across the finish line and avoid a second Trump presidency, so be it. I'm all in with the dems this time. So I guess the ability question isn't my primary concern, it's the electability one, which I'm currently relatively split on.
No comments:
Post a Comment