So I said I wasnt gonna spam these every day, and I'll try to stick to weekly or biweekly, but I did say I would bring special updates if we see significant changes that need immediate coverage. And RCP decided to add new polls and radically change their polling averages on a Saturday. As such, I will now discuss the big change.
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YIKES!
So, PA basically just crapped the bed. It's now up to 4.5% Trump, which is actually beyond an informal tipping point I mentioned where I would consider replacing Joe. Once you're into the "Likely Trump" category as opposed to "Lean", youre screwed. Biden's odds just dropped to a 13% chance of winning, while Trump has an 87% chance. Yes, Georgia is more likely to flip Biden at this point, but without Nevada, it doesn't have enough electoral votes. As we can see, it's still 226-312 Trump, but yeah, Biden's odds just dropped significantly. Look at that line on that line graph.
This doesn't doesnt have anything to do with the interview last night to my knowledge, this is just old polls being removed, new ones being added, mostly post debate, and we're seeing the Joepocalypse. If he doesn't turn this around by August 1st, I hope the fudge he drops out for the good of the country. This is BAD. This is REALLY BAD. His pride is gonna get Donald Trump reelected. THIS ISN'T JUST ABOUT YOU, JOE, STEP ASIDE, THIS ISN'T YOUR VANITY PROJECT, THE FATE OF THE COUNTRY IS ON THE LINE! As you said yourself at one point, what happens in the next few years might impact the next 6-7 decades. WTF ARE YOU DOING, JOE?!
Now, in the interests of not being rash, I'm still in the wait and see category, but this IS NOT GOOD. If Joe doesn't turn this around by August 1st (or 2nd, as that's when I do my election update, on Fridays), he should drop out. That's what I'm gonna say. Give the dems a few weeks to run to the convention with a plan, and then pick a replacement. Don't screw around. July is for waiting, August is for action. That's how I see it.
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