Why did Trump get no bump from being shot/the RNC?

 So a lot of people are starting to say that Trump is doomed because he didn't get any polling bump from the RNC or being shot and that normally happens, and now JD Vance is really unpopular because he has all of these crazy conservative views. And now a lot of people are now trumpeting that Trump is "doomed" and that this is a bad sign and blah blah blah.

I admit, since Harris dropped out, the energy has been going away from Trump with Harris getting massive enthusiasm across the board, but honestly, I think we should hold our horses, and I have another explanation. Let me bring up...the chart.

So, this is a familiar chart. It's from last week's election update. And one thing I wanna point out is despite whatever enthusiasm Harris has, and Trump no longer has, TRUMP IS STILL WINNING, he's just not doing so by the overwhelming "gg no re" margins he was against Biden.

The fact is, Biden's horrid debate performance made Trump peak too early, where he had nowhere to go but down. And now with Harris replacing Biden and bringing enthusiasm into the party, things are going the other way. The fact is, Trump basically just reached his maximum level of support before the convention by BTFOing Biden at the debate. As such, the shooting gives him nothing. The RNC gives him nothing, and now things are returning to the rough 25-75 baseline they were at before Biden fudged the debate performance. 

Of course, harris's aggressive campaigning style hitting Trump hard over project 2025 and just being plain "weird" is shaking things up, as Harris seems to have her finger on the pulse of America while Biden probably can't even find his own pulse. And again, Vance being extreme is bringing Trump a lot of trouble and liability.

I'm just trying to tell liberals here don't be complacent. Trump is STILL WINNING. He has a 77% chance to win the presidency as of now. Harris is still the underdog. Yes, things will continue to flip, and maybe by election day, Harris will have a real shot against Trump, but right now, people are being a bit premature. I think it's reasonable for Trump to panick as he stands to lose (and is losing) a massive lead, but liberals shouldn't act like they got this wrapped up and it's over, because it's not. Trump is still dangerous, he can win, and this surge could be temporary for us too. By labor day, Trump might be winning again. Who knows. Don't get overconfident, dont get complacent, don't act like we got this in the bag, because we don't.