Dear centrists, stop trying to ruin things with the Hillary Clinton strategy

 So, I keep seeing on the news, and occasionally online, that "Kamala Harris' path to the white house looks differently than Joe Biden's" followed by a news report talking about how Harris's path to the white house is through like North Carolina and Georgia and maybe Arizona on the basis of her being a black woman and being able to appeal to black women.

For the love of god, centrists, get out of your own way for once. Stop trying to make a democratic "southern strategy" happen. it's not happening. Harris's map looks literally the same as Biden's. If anything, Harris's map is more "Biden" than Biden's. Let me post what I mean by that.

So this is where my polling averages with Harris are relative to Biden's. 1/4/8 margins. I admit, it's early, I need more data for a comprehensive picture, but the picture I have speaks for itself. The path to the white house is through the rust belt. It always was. And right now, Harris's data favors the rust belt, and doesn't favor the sun belt. 

Now, admittedly, this can change. Again, it's still early, I have a very incomplete picture of what's going on. That Michigan data is old as fudge (as is NH's), and more polls might bring the polling averages down a bit, but yeah. Whatever trends were happening, are more extreme with Harris. Biden was down about 2-5 points in the rust belt when he pulled the plug. Harris is down 4, to being ahead by 2 in Michigan. Now, do I think she's really ahead by 2 in Michigan? No, I'd say she's probably actually behind by 1-2, similar to the Wisconsin numbers, but regardless, again, similar map.

Biden was down 4-7 in the sun belt. Harris is down by 5-10. Again, limited set of polls, but one of the reasons i was more reluctant to replace her was because of stuff like that. In some polls she does horribly at the state level, like worse than Biden. And now we can kinda see where she's strong vs biden and where she's weak. 

We know, from my election predictions on Biden, and to a lesser extent on harris, that the path to least resistance is through the rust belt. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, NE2. Get those, you get 270. Don't screw around trying to abandon the rust belt to pick up Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona, that's where Clinton went wrong in 2016. Because she couldn't seal the deal in the south, and she ended up blowing her easy actual path to victory.

Now, I'm not saying any approach is easy here. I mean, Trump holds all the cards, kinda like Clinton did in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Trump is the presumptive winner and has to defend his lead in the swing states. He needs to lock down the democrats' easiest path to 270 and make sure they can't get past that mark. And that path is the rust belt. That's why he went all in with Vance. And that's probably why I think harris will inevitably choose josh shapiro as a running mate. All paths go through pennsylvania. Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina dont have enough electoral votes on their own. You get wisconsin and michigan and you need 19 more votes. Pennsylvania has 19. Georgia has 16. North Carolina has 16. Arizona has 11. They're harder states to flip, and they're less rewarding. Why are news outlets so focused on the south?

Because that's what they want the democratic party to be. They want the party to reflect themselves. Full of corporate centrists who live in big city suburbs and then they make it up by playing to minorities. That's what Clinton did in 2016. Go corporate centrist, but then go woke. And then she went broke.

Harris has real energy. And wanna know why? it's not JUST youth and vitality. It's that she's PROGRESSIVE. She has a progressive record. She's more progressive than Biden. Even I'm relatively enthused over Harris. And it's because her administration actually has potential to make peoples' lives better while Biden's was dead in the water.

Nothing is more demotivating to democrats than combining wokeism with centrist economic policies. That strategy is what feeds the trump strategy. Because all these white working class people in the rust belt feel like the dems abandoned them, and then suddenly you get the teamsters showing up to give speeches at the RNC. That and a lot of the social justice messaging is extremely polarizing. It mgiht appeal to some demographics, but it repulses others and causes the other party to be a cesspit of racism, misogyny, and the worst aspects of the republican base. I mean, the GOP looks exactly as it does today, BECAUSE of this strategy. it was the original sin of Hillary 2016. And it (the GOP) is POPULAR. This crap ISN'T. No one likes this crap. You guys are weird corporate boardroom people trying to sell a product that no one wants to buy. It's inorganic, it's repulsive. No one wants it. STOP IT. If you want to not lose this election, STOP IT AND GET OUT OF THE WAY. 

Seriously. The rust belt is our best, easiest and most effective strategy to 270. It might make the party look more in the image of Bernie Sanders and my politics, but you know what? THAT'S WHAT PEOPLE WANT!!!!! Don't screw around with this.

I'll even compromise, make Josh Shapiro the VP. Of the boring centrists we could choose, Shapiro locking down PA maximizes our chances of winning the white house! RUST BELT RUST BELT RUST BELT. It's the difference between 270-268 Harris and 226-312 Trump. Your choice. Not saying we cant make a play for the sun belt, but come on, it's not happening.

This could be us:

Trying to do this:

Will probably lead to this:

Don't screw up. Don't pull a Hillary. 

What was:

What could have, and should have been:

Don't make the same mistake again, democrats.

(PS, yes those last two images are from my "bernie would've won" article, with the second one actually being the same as the first, but if the country voted 1 point more to the left)