So, a lot of commentators recently have been noticing that the progressive left is actually falling in line behind Biden, while it is the CENTER that is really questioning his ability to lead. And I did want to discuss this phenomenon somewhat.
First of all, I'll say this. As far as this goes, there's a difference between say, non establishment commentators like say, TYT, Kyle Kulinski, etc, and say, the establish left a la Bernie Sanders and AOC. There's also a difference between your typical blue maga voter who is in full on cope mode, vs establishment commentators on cable news. And this is where we get the big distinction.
First, the let's discuss the left. Honestly, the anti establishment online left has been critical of Biden from the get go, and people like Cenk Uygur even ran a campaign to push for replacing Biden on the basis of his age and apparent abilities. I think he's been a bit too hyperbolic and dogmatic about his opinions, but he's not necessarily wrong. Biden kinda sucks. And the anti establishment left has never been one to be controlled. I've noticed this cycle in particular a lot of them are really wearing thin of the "blue no matter who" BS and are really coming out against him over gaza and the like. And their calls for Biden to drop are only being exacerbated by the age and possible mental ability issues.
But, the establishment left HAS been scared crapless to come out against Biden. That's kind of the nature of the democratic party. If you're actually IN politics and you bad mouth the sitting president, you're done. Look at what happened to Nina Turner. Also, because a lot of voters listen to people like Bernie and AOC, and if they come out against Biden, the establishment will blame those guys for causing division in the democratic party and be painted as causing the dems to lose, like the dems try to do to us 2016 Bernie Bros. The progressive left in office doesn't want that and fearing for their careers, they're gonna back Biden. Not to mention Biden has done some stuff for us and if we come out against him, well, he might not in his second term, or whoever replaces him won't.
This is kind of why I go in my own direction. I'm loyal to no one, and I do what I want. I dont speak for people like Bernie, they dont necessarily speak for me, and I do think it's up to left wing voters to agitate the party for change by threatening to withhold our votes. I'm suspending that this time but that's because we're not in a position to even affect change this election cycle. The best we can hope for is Biden to be reelected and that's that.
That said, who is really coming out against Biden? Well, it's actually the establishment. It's the donor class. That's why suddenly CNN and MSNBC were critical of Biden on debate night. I mean I was actually shocked they were so candid. I thought they were gonna downplay his screw ups. Ya know, like they always do. Because the media isnt exactly objective. So seeing them come out so hard against Biden actually surprised me. And they actually are the ones making a big deal about this. If they wanted to, they could've downplayed the issue and made it go away, but no they're actually driving a campaign to push Biden out.
Same with congresspeople. Centrists are the big ones coming out against Biden. NOT the left. And suddenly a lot of dems are waking up for the first time wondering how we got into this mess, why is the democratic party so anti democratic, why are people so gutless in opposing it, and the answer is simple: because the dems intimidate anyone who speaks out of line. They are like a toxic employer who will literally ruin your career if you speak out. And that's what Biden is trying to do here. He's been trying to bully and intimidate his naysayers. But at the same the donor class isn't happy with Biden so the media keeps taking pot shots, and more congresspeople are speaking up, and there seems to be the "invisible hand" behind the party and its leadership saying "it's time to go, Joe", and it seems like they're trying to give him an out, an ability to leave on his own terms, but Biden is basically going full trump on the pride and fighting back with everything he has.
And it's kind of being a mask off moment for people. I mean, we had that Adam Smith guy coming out and talking about how the establishment screwed Bernie in 2020 just like many of us Bernie supporters said they did, and now those same people are wanting Biden out. And that's why this is gaining traction. Remember, back in February, we had Dean Phillips trying to push Biden out based on age, we had Cenk Uygur of TYT trying to run despite not being eligible. And they got crushed, and everyone ignored them, because the party was against them. Amazing how they can make these issues go away and suppress them when they want, or make them spread like wildfire. It's what I've been saying about the media being the gatekeepers that set the narrative and how they're pro corporate. They suppressed Bernie and Yang, they suppressed Phillips, let alone Williamson, but now they want Biden out so the people who normally are good loyal little footsoldiers for the dems and pushing blue no matter who are suddenly trying to push Biden out. At least in the circles of power.
What about the blue maga type voters? The ones who are ride or die on this kind of propaganda normally? Well, they're not coping very well. Because they've been trained to be ride or die on Biden. So much like Biden, they're digging in. They're claiming conspiracies from various groups like the left to divide the party, or even MAGA operatives from the right. They're denying polls, and going all in with heavily "fundamentals" type models like 538's horrid "50/50 no matter what" model and Lichtman's 13 keys, and....here I am following the polls, giving Biden a 10% chance, and I'm like, we're screwed.
And to be fair, as a progressive with little to no appetite for change after the primary, because I understand that we're not in a blue leaning year and a progressive agenda may not resonate at all this year, and understanding the red tsunami that's apparently barrelling right for us and how bad this can get, I'm just trying to get the best candidate for the job. I keep flip flopping on whether we should replace joe or not. There's some factors that lead me to be for it, some make me against it, and I'm kinda in a leery "let's wait it out" mood. We do have time. Let's get through this month, first week of august, we commit to whatever we're doing. But yeah. Look, I'm just trying to follow the evidence here. I dont think Biden is fit for another term, honestly. BUT...he MAY be our best shot at winning despite his shortcomings, so I'm all over the place.
But yeah. Back to blue maga, they're not faring well. A lot of them are starting to understand what we Bernie bros have been talking about for the past decade as the knives come out vs Joe, and yeah even CNN tonight let the mask slip in saying something along the lines of "the dems voters haven't been conditioned to accept president kamala harris".
I mean, again, mask slipping. The media conditions voters to accept certain outcomes. Because the media and the dems cultivated this rigid blue no matter who mindset, suddenly you got people who are reluctant to replace joe biden. THis is because these people have been gaslit for so long that they refuse to believe the issues with their own eyes, even now kind of refusing to admit that something may be wrong with this guy.
And some of them are finally starting to admit that, okay, look, we might vote for Biden no matter what, but swing voters aren't, how are we gonna convince them? Gee, that's exactly what the issue with 2016 was. You tried screaming at us to think like you, it didn't work, you lost, and then you blamed us for not being in the same cult as you. And as someone who has never been part of the cult, and understands what im getting into in being ride or die on the dems for my own reasons this election cycle, it's like, no crap. You need to meet voters where they are. And a lot of the country is against Joe.
These guys have been in denial all year, but because I believe my own eyes and dont buy the gaslighting BS, i make up my own views even if they piss off and alienate all factions at this point, and because I've been following polling and letting the data speak for itself this election cycle, I kind of understand that yeah, the dems are in trouble. They're in their own little world, they can't win this thing, the country is leaning HEAVILY toward Trump, and we're really screwed unless something changes.
I'm not even sure if dems CAN win this election cycle. Even I kinda let the blue maga people influence me with believing "oh gee, the polls will even up, when july hits, roe v wade will matter, trump being convicted will matter, etc." but now the bottom is falling out because Joe can't even speak coherently half the time. And people notice, and the media is making a big deal about it. And now we went from a 25% chance to win to a 10% chance.
And people are starting to realize crap I realized months ago. That virginia, maine, new hampshire, and minnesota are swing states. That, heck, FRICKING NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK are swing states. How bad do we have to be doing for those to be in play? Holy crap. This is TERRIBLE.
I've known this for months. Why? Because i've been following the data. i didn't even believe it fully myself, but after really analyzing it, yeah, that's where we're at. And some people ARE starting to wake up and realize this isnt good. But then others are doing the same crap Biden did tonight. "Oh the polls are off anyway in recent cycles", or "oh it will even up by labor day now", or "oh the fundamentals are good a la lichtman's 13 keys" or some crap. Ya know? They're just selectively filtering data according to their worldview, while I'm allowing the data to shape my worldview and conception of reality.
And that data tells me Biden isn't gonna win. Now, idk what Biden's actual standard is for "i'll drop out if the polls say i cant win." What threshold is that? Will you need to be down by 8 and only have a 2.3% chance? 12 and only have a 0.1% chance? Do you need to be down by 20?
I mean, come on, Joe. If you arent at least 50/50, that's not ideal. If you're at least 30-70 like he's been at best, i dont like those odds, but I'd be lying if I said that he didn't have a shot.
Honestly, I'd settle for a 4 point margin or a 16% chance to be low enough to say "YOU CAN'T WIN THIS"! Because, yeah. 1-3 point swings, they happen. Beyond 4 points, the odds are getting significantly worse. And unless you have a substantive reason to ignore polling, I'd say PLEASE hand the keys to the car to someone else (assuming polls show they can do better).
Now, can someone do better? Im not sure. harris is kinda in the territory of being the same or slightly better, but I'm not sure how that works in the swing states as the polling data there is quite old, and back then Biden was doing markedly worse than Biden, with Biden having a 30% chance and Kamala having a 16% chance, exactly at my "you're screwed" threshold.
Now Biden is at a 10% chance, and if Harris really did like 0.4% better or whatever, she might have like...idk, a 12% chance? Again, Harris has kinda been in the same territory as Trump. And she's the BEST alternative we have. So....what are we really doing here?
Idk. Like, again, I'd be for replacing Biden if an alternative can demonstrably do better, but right now we're in just about the 50-50 zone on this.
Still, if i were to follow my heart and base it on biden's ability to lead for 4 more years, I'd say dump him. He's too old, he's a clear electoral liability at this point, and a replacement might be better.
Still, data driven approach is more mixed.
Anyway, I'm rambling harder than Biden right now in that press conference so I guess I'll end this.
The point is, progressives by and large arent responsible for the push to get Biden out. it's the center, it's the donor class, it's the media. it's possibly the big wigs in the DNC. That's why this issue is being amplified, and why it's actually becoming common to debate. if the dems wanted to sweep this under the rug with the only calls to drop out being from random leftists who are treated as kooks, they could've done that. Heck, they DID do that back in February. ANd the media still shows disdain toward those people. I remember one CNN host a few weeks ago said Dean Phillips "got what he deserved" for going against the party. But if you're a billionaire donor or in their pocket, it's okay to say the same thing 5 months later when you cant sweep it under the rug any more. Kinda irks me. But that's the state of politics in 2024.
...we so need to get money out of politics.
No comments:
Post a Comment